2010 senate prediction

[Vosem]

The Republicans pick up 7 seats in 2010:

Arkansas (Gilbert Baker)
Colorado (Jane Norton)
Connecticut (Rob Simmons)
Delaware (Mike Castle)
Illinois (Mark Kirk)
Nevada (Sue Lowden)
Pennsylvania (Pat Toomey)

for a Senate with a Democratic majority of 53-47.

Other freshmen:

Florida (Charlie Crist)
Ohio (Rob Portman)
Kansas (Jerry Moran)
Kentucky (Rand Paul)
Missouri (Roy Blunt)
New Hampshire (Kelly Ayotte)

Not a single Dem freshman, though Carnahan and Giannoulias come close.

Too lazy to make map

[Vosem]

Joe Sestak will beat Arlen Specter turncoat, pro war Dem in the primary and Giannoulias will beat Mark Kirk.  I think PA and IL is leaning our way.

Specter has the support of the White House. I wouldn't count Sestak out, but Specter has the advantage.

In PA, polls show Toomey ahead of Sestak, and either ahead or tied with Specter. That sounds like a Republican victory. Illinois is just pure tossup.

The reason I count both as Republican pickups is that Obama's approval rating - and that of Democrats in general - looks unlikely to improve in 2010 (though I don't foresee 2009's 20% drop-off). Therefore, I think races which are currently close will probably go Republican come November.

[Vosem]

I've decided to be optimistic. I think Kirk and Campbell can beat Giannoulias and Boxer; the others are self-explanatory.