US with French parties

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very interesting topic. It seems very complicated to determine the strength of each french party, but I would try to give my opinion. This analysis is based on the assumption that the US have an electoral system permitting a more than two parties system.

NPA, LO : Very marginal. Would actract neither the ecolo-liberal activist who voted for Nader, nor the traditionnal working class. In fact, they would rapidly turn into sectarian movements...

PCF : A very small attractivity on workers, no more than 1% of votes.

Greens : This would be the only party of the french hard left that has a chance to play a part in American politics. This would almost correspond to Nader's 2000 voters, I would say about 5%.

PS : would be really strong only outside the deep South and the West. Could be the second major party in the New England and the third in liberal-moderate states. Marginal in other states. Almost 10%.

UDF, MoDem : Would be one of the major parties, getting solid majorities in New England and in the West Coast. Could be also strrong in Northeast and Midwest, but absoultely not in the South. It would almost correspond to the progressive wing of the Democratic party, and get something like 25%.

UMP : Would be considered as a centrist party, and would gather the most moderate members of the GOP and the dems ( from Bill Clinton to John McCain 2000-version ). Reciprocally, the right wing of the UMP ( Sarkozy, Boutin... ) would be moderate republicans and the left wing ( the Chiraquians ) moderate democrats. As a result, it would be a dominant political party, strong anywhere outside the New England and the Deep South. I would see in getting something like 30% of the votes.

MPF : would be far stronger in US, gathering the majority of the conservative wing of the GOP, and so be a political force in the South and in states like UT, ID and WY. The social conservatives would have their party, getting at least 25%

FN : The traditionnal far-rightist movement in France would not be as strong as in France, and I see it as a marginal party in the US. It couldn't get more than 2%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

As for the 2007 presdential election, here are two scenarioes, based on these initial results :
Nicholas Sarkozy : 39%
Philip Villers : 22%
Francis Bayroo : 20%
Ségolène [could not find a traduction] Royal : 7%
Dominique Voynet : 6%
John M. Penn : 1%
Mary-George Buffet : 1%
Others : 3%

Sarkozy would be a perfect candidate for UMP, getting many conservative votes. At the same time, Bayroo would be considere as too liberal and realize a very bad performance. As for Royal, his pointless campaign would ruin any chances for the PS to become a major party.


Now, we have two possible scenarioes : either the electoral system used is the french one, or it's the American one.

In the first case, we'd have an Sarkozy-Villers 2nd round. The leftist voters, who had failed to get a candidate, would haf abstain, refuing to chose between "bonnet blanc and blanc bonnet", half reluctantly vote for Sarko, to avoid the threat of Villers :
Sarkozy : 63%
Villers : 37%

In the second case, here's what the electoral map could look like :

Sarkozy : 357
Villers : 92
Bayroo : 89

Closest states :
- Texas : narrow win of Sarkozy against Villers because of his anti-immigration stances that pleases the american natives here.
- New York : Bayroo's loss in a so progressive state show his being a really bad choice for UDF, though the addition of PS, UDF and green vote would be majoritary.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Please continue this. Southern states should be interesting.

Not really : MPF strongholds.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Please continue this. Southern states should be interesting.

Not really : MPF strongholds.

The US isn't as right-wing as you think.

The US no, the South yes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very good analysis.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Are you planning to do some county maps ? It would be really great.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Are you planning to do some county maps ? It would be really great.

Great, of course... But maybe our Hash need to... live, just live, apart from posting in here ?!?

Do you realize the HUGE amount of work and time to make those maps (and that's not just a Dem/GOP one where, more or else, when you've made one, youve made the other one) ?

Try to be happy with what we already have, which is very, very fine.

You're right, but I was just speaking about some summary and imprecise maps to figure what he has written about the diffierent regions in a state.

[Antonio the Sixth]

West Virginia

Socialist stronghold, predictably enough, and probably Mitterrand's old electoral base. The UMP might poll well in wealthier urban centres, growing DC suburbia and rural places not influenced by heavy industry and coal mining. However, it's likely the MPF is the largest right-wing party, especially in mining areas.

Overall: Royal's best state in the runoff.

I tend to disagree with this one. I couldn't see the PS even close to be competitive in a so socially conservatve state. Even if WV is quite economically liberal, it wouldn't be enough to vote for PS.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anybody would disagree with your assessment. Anybody would tell you that WV is a stronghold for any left-wing social democratic party. Ask Al, afleitch, anybody.

Let's see.
Barack Obama, who can be considered as moderately leftist on economic issues and clearly progressive on social issues, was running against John McCain, who led a conservative campaign on economic issues but was quite moderate ( for the GOP standards at least ) on social issues. McCain killed Obama with a 13-points edge ( 20 points if we correct with the national margin ). So, what do you think that would happen with french political parties, which one is more or less social-democratic but also socially progressive ( how do you think WVers viewed things like the PACS ? ), and the other is, I would say, a bit less ridiculously conservative economically and socially moderate. Do you really think being "social-democratic" would be enough for a party like PS to win the State ? Maybe Al and afleithc agree with you, but that isn't enough to convince me.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In this situation, I agree that it wasn't at all appropriate. But I don't think the french notion of "liberalism" is really more correct than american one. Both are uncorrec, I did a long post once to explain that, but I'm too lazy to search it. I'll try not to use this term in this kind of situations.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anybody would disagree with your assessment. Anybody would tell you that WV is a stronghold for any left-wing social democratic party. Ask Al, afleitch, anybody.

Let's see.
Barack Obama, who can be considered as moderately leftist on economic issues and clearly progressive on social issues, was running against John McCain, who led a conservative campaign on economic issues but was quite moderate ( for the GOP standards at least ) on social issues. McCain killed Obama with a 13-points edge ( 20 points if we correct with the national margin ). So, what do you think that would happen with french political parties, which one is more or less social-democratic but also socially progressive ( how do you think WVers viewed things like the PACS ? ), and the other is, I would say, a bit less ridiculously conservative economically and socially moderate. Do you really think being "social-democratic" would be enough for a party like PS to win the State ? Maybe Al and afleithc agree with you, but that isn't enough to convince me.

Obama is a black inner city liberal.

Anyways, if you don't like my assessment, do your own. Nobody is forcing you to agree with my assessment. It's my assessment, and I do what I please with it and what I think is right. If you don't like it, I'm not forcing you to like it or even read it if it's so woefully inaccurate. Please.

Could I ask you why you are getting so harsh ? I was just giving my opinion about your assessment, that I found very good for other states. What's wrong with that ? That was neither a personal critic nor a mark of contempt for your very good and interesting work.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Could I ask you why you are getting so harsh ?

Because I'm cranky and because you're taking this as if it was something real.

I frankly don't really care if you disagree with my assessment, since this is all supposed to be a fun project for me and readers. And I already warned about a number of things like this in my OP

WV is Socialist and it will remain such until I die.

Excuse me, I thought the purpose of a forum was to discuss and confront different points of view about a certain argument. But you apparently don't appreciate opinions that disagree with your own analysis.
As you prefer.

[Antonio the Sixth]

We need an update !

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let's see.
Barack Obama, who can be considered as moderately leftist on economic issues and clearly progressive on social issues, was running against John McCain, who led a conservative campaign on economic issues but was quite moderate ( for the GOP standards at least ) on social issues. McCain killed Obama with a 13-points edge ( 20 points if we correct with the national margin ). So, what do you think that would happen with french political parties, which one is more or less social-democratic but also socially progressive ( how do you think WVers viewed things like the PACS ? ), and the other is, I would say, a bit less ridiculously conservative economically and socially moderate. Do you really think being "social-democratic" would be enough for a party like PS to win the State ? Maybe Al and afleithc agree with you, but that isn't enough to convince me.

What you need to understand is that the basis of American voting patterns are often very different to European ones; class is a bigger factor in Europe, while the sort of cultural issues that have dominated recent elections in America and which have a huge impact on voting patterns are broadly irrevelant in Europe. If we assume that America has French political parties, then it's reasonable to assume that this would be true of America also; after all, it's no more absurd than assuming that America has French parties

Anyway, how would you expect an overwhelmingly working class area with a history of coal mining and historically strong unions to vote were it in France or Belgium?

Doesn't FN poll also well in this sort of regions ? Didn't Sarkozy win Pas-de-Calais in 2007 ? Even in France, working class areas are not socialist strongholds.


Anyways...

We need an update !

[Antonio the Sixth]

Even in France, working class areas are not socialist strongholds.

wtf

Not necessarily, and not all of them.
 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No. In the first round he got a plurality but just 'cause the Trots polled like 10% together.[/quote]

Sorry, I confused with Nord, that he won in 2nd round. That's even more representative.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A Note about the (Deep) South

However wrong it may be and not matter how many accusations of anti-socialism I get, this simulation will assume that the SFIO would have taken the place of the OTL Democratic Party in the South. You would see people like Déat, Doriot, and Chautemps became segregationists and Dixiecrats in the 1940s and 1950s. It is far from a perfect fit, but it is the best one imaginable. In addition, the quasi-racist and nationalist PCF of the 1970s would also have been a perfect fit in large areas of the South.

The role of the old Republican Party in the South (lol) is taken by the centre-right, nowadays the UMP, which is the party of the more affluent and suburban white Southerner while the poorer, more blue-collar Southerner is divided between the PS, MPF and FN (the FN being stronger with those in heavy industry).

Next: North Carolina

Seems a reasonable choice. No way you would be anti-socialist. The good thing is that, if PS takes the part of the Southern dems, it means that it has also been crushed recently for passing Civil Rights, didn't it ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

One question about NC, again with MoDem: in the "triangle" and Raleigh-Durham, don't you think that it may have done well in 2007, disturbing the UMP as well as the PS ?
Of course not the UDF (), but MoDem ?

Kind of.

I don't want to make the MoDem the social liberal party and turn this into a type of simulation with Brithsh political parties but also because the MoDem's electoral support is not purely a map of social liberalism or wealthy college kids...

Well, it's looking more and more like that. Hard to consider it the catho's party.

[Antonio the Sixth]

One question about NC, again with MoDem: in the "triangle" and Raleigh-Durham, don't you think that it may have done well in 2007, disturbing the UMP as well as the PS ?
Of course not the UDF (), but MoDem ?

Kind of.

I don't want to make the MoDem the social liberal party and turn this into a type of simulation with Brithsh political parties but also because the MoDem's electoral support is not purely a map of social liberalism or wealthy college kids...

Well, it's looking more and more like that. Hard to consider it the catho's party.

There is little fun in turning this into a type of simulation using British parties instead.

Nobody spoke about British parties.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyways, as I said, the MoDem isn't Godly and my exclusion of the MoDem won't alter many things.

Of course, but you need to put it somewhere, as you do for even more insignificant parties as PRG.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Really amazing. Congratulations for all your work.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bump. Just bump. No demand.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Glad to see it statrs again.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah; aside from WV, where is the left strong that the Democrats aren't?

In the Outer South probably (KY, TN, AR, MO).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nice, it's back !

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, it's back !
Please keep it up for sometime...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Really great. BTW, do you plan to make a 1st Round map ? I guess it would be even more interesting.