US with French parties

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Let's see.
Barack Obama, who can be considered as moderately leftist on economic issues and clearly progressive on social issues, was running against John McCain, who led a conservative campaign on economic issues but was quite moderate ( for the GOP standards at least ) on social issues. McCain killed Obama with a 13-points edge ( 20 points if we correct with the national margin ). So, what do you think that would happen with french political parties, which one is more or less social-democratic but also socially progressive ( how do you think WVers viewed things like the PACS ? ), and the other is, I would say, a bit less ridiculously conservative economically and socially moderate. Do you really think being "social-democratic" would be enough for a party like PS to win the State ? Maybe Al and afleithc agree with you, but that isn't enough to convince me.

What you need to understand is that the basis of American voting patterns are often very different to European ones; class is a bigger factor in Europe, while the sort of cultural issues that have dominated recent elections in America and which have a huge impact on voting patterns are broadly irrevelant in Europe. If we assume that America has French political parties, then it's reasonable to assume that this would be true of America also; after all, it's no more absurd than assuming that America has French parties

Anyway, how would you expect an overwhelmingly working class area with a history of coal mining and historically strong unions to vote were it in France or Belgium?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Even in France, working class areas are not socialist strongholds.

wtf

Not necessarily, and not all of them.

The big exceptions (rural Alsace, say) are mostly heavily Catholic.

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Not really; Sarko only won Nord because of Lille suburbia.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Commenting on these one-by-one for the sheer hell of it... all comments assume that the party "translation" used is correct.

Let's start.

Maine

The north has a populist feel to it and is more working-class, from what I gather, so it would generally vote Socialist. The UDF could carry Aroostook, though the Socialists would do well there too. The UMP wins rural areas, potato country, and wealthy areas on the coast. The Greens are quite strong along the coast and in Portland, and would have probably come second in the 2009 'Euro' elections (presumably a North-Central American Parliament here!). Portland would probably be PS now, though right-wing in the past.

Overall: Lean UMP, and Sarkozy would have carried in 2007.

As a general overview this seems about right - though it's worth noting that the great PS stronghold in Maine would be Lewiston and surrounds. Oh, and some of the more working class rural areas would certainly be capable of voting PS.

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Overall: Lean UMP, and Sarkozy would have carried in 2007.
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Again, difficult to complain much. I think you're wrong about Coos though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Vermont

A hard state to pin down in terms of French parties. It would probably have been a ARD stronghold during the Third Republic and later a CNI (or RGR) stronghold. The influx of liberals from New England and the CNI's move to the right would have shifted the state to the Socialists - though liberal progressive 'champagne' socialists and not working-class socialists. The PRG (if they bothered to run candidates) and, in particular the Greens do very well, and the Greens would probably have won the state in 2009. The UMP is limited to very older wealthy communities and maybe Essex County. The UDF-CDS would have done well in the Catholic areas in the past, but would be a non-factor now obviously.

Not to say, the UMP could actually do well in state races depending on the candidate.

Overall: One of Royal's best states in the runoff. Voynet's best state in the first round (5-6% vs. 1% nationwide) and Mamere would have done very well (10-13%). Perhaps Sarkozy's worst state, and Royal mightve broken 40% here in the first round.

Less rich liberals moved to Vermont than is commonly thought. Anyway, as a general summary... not bad, I think. Though the PS would always have had a base in the state.

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Now here I think you're very wrong, though for understandable reasons. The "Catholic" vote in MA is not, and was never, anything like the Catholic vote in France. It was not a rural Clerical vote. It is better understood as an ethnic-immigrant (mostly Irish, but not entirely), and even a class, vote. It wasn't shaped by the clergy, but by urban machine politicians. Massachusetts was also one of the first parts of the U.S to get seriously industrialised (textiles as it happens - a lot of "rural MA" is only rural in an extremely broad sense of the term). As such the Irish vote would mostly be PS (firmly on the right of the party, obviously) with the Catholic influence showing up largely in the weakness of the PCF in an area that would otherwise be quite favourable for them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rhode Island

Catholic working-class stronghold. Would have been a UDF stronghold for a long time, though with decline in church attendance, you would see the Socialists making some important gains and UDF voters would be more likely to vote for Socialists in runoffs after, say, 1980 or 1984. The UMP is limited to some very wealthy towns and that's it.

Overall: Royal would have won the runoff in 2007, and Bayrou would have won the state in the first round.

See MA but more so - real life Democratic domination of Rhode Island actually began with a sort of democratic revolution of the working class against the state's traditional elite. There's also a certain Liberal Republican tradition amongst affluent voters here (oh, this goes for MA, VT as well). Might translate as Radical strength, perhaps.

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This though feels right, though the usual (lol) New England question mark about the UDF.

Good stuff so far though, interesting.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Much of rural northern Louisiana was almost as close as places came to being an SPA stronghold and was also the political base of Huey Long.

Cajuns-as-Christian-Democrats makes a lot of sense, though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Socialists are getting crushed.

Well, that's what usually happens in the real France, so...

Still. He may have great things planned for the Midwest. And um... maybe Washington and Oregon...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Louisville

Louisville itself would be a PS town, with strong PS support in black areas of the city and working-class white areas. The UMP would dominate its suburbs, including the very affluent Oldham County.

Louisville would probably have been Communist until relatively recently.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I keep meaning to comment in more detail. But really, this is an excellent thread. What's fun about projects like this is that they are an excellent excuse to comment on a range of issues relating to political sociology in a way that's easier for people who aren't academics and/or nerds to follow. I'll probably have another go at doing this with Britisher parties soon-ish. Hmm... might be amusing to flip things round as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

poor "suburban" Hispanic, right?

Certainly not. It's a fast-growing area (bulk of housing built post-1990 IIRC) with a population that has relatively high incomes (median hh income for most census tracts in the 45-50 and 50-75 brackets) but working class backgrounds. Whiter than the Albuquerque average, though pretty diverse.