NY-23 Special Election: November 3, 2009

[Lunar]

This election is great, I can't believe how much we're missing out on with only 2 parties...

This district is roughly at the white political center of this country, anytime the Conservative Party wants to go national, I'm sure the Democrats won't protest.

[Rob]

Hoffman looks like such a dweeb- he could be a columnist for the National Review.

[cinyc]

http://www.politico.com/singletitlevideo.html?bcpid=19407224001&bctid=46766537001

Don't be fooled - it's paid for by Hoffman supporters.

I don't know why that is considered a "dirty trick" by Politico. It's politics.

Actually, it's considered a "REPUBLICAN dirty trick" by Politico, even though it is aimed at the Republican candidate.  Heck, it probably hurts the Democrat at the margins, too - since "progressives" should vote for Dede.

Politico's position is illogical.

[Rowan]

Hoffman within 1 according to KOS poll....

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/10/29/very_tight_in_ny-23.html

[Eraserhead]

Scary.

[Meeker]

If Hoffman does end up winning then hopefully it will inspire right-wing nutcases all around the country to take on their Republican congresscritters next year.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If Hoffman does end up winning then hopefully it will inspire right-wing nutcases all around the country to take on their Republican congresscritters next year.

You betcha!

[Sam Spade]

Hoffman within 1 according to KOS poll....

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/10/29/very_tight_in_ny-23.html

If you would have put a gun to my head and asked me where this race stood a couple of days ago, my educated guess would have been - Owens, Hoffman close, Dede far behind.

We'll see whether my guess or this poll is anywhere near correct.

The magic number for any candidate in this race is 40%.  Top that and I can't see you losing.

[CatoMinor]

Hoffman within 1 according to KOS poll....

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/10/29/very_tight_in_ny-23.html

Thats amazing

[Lief 🗽]

If Hoffman does end up winning then hopefully it will inspire right-wing nutcases all around the country to take on their Republican congresscritters next year.

We can only hope.

[Vepres]

If Hoffman does end up winning then hopefully it will inspire right-wing nutcases all around the country to take on their Republican congresscritters next year.

Yeah, because a right-wing nut can easily win a primary in any competitive district

[Franzl]

If Hoffman does end up winning then hopefully it will inspire right-wing nutcases all around the country to take on their Republican congresscritters next year.

Yeah, because a right-wing nut can easily win a primary in any competitive district

He might mean on a third party ticket like in NY-23 to allow the Democrat to win by splitting the right-wing vote.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If Hoffman does end up winning then hopefully it will inspire right-wing nutcases all around the country to take on their Republican congresscritters next year.

Yeah, because a right-wing nut can easily win a primary in any competitive district

Tell that to Marco Rubio, Rick Perry and Sharon Angle.

[Beet]

You guys are assuming that the far right will only hurt the GOP. What you might not realize is that the far right has been (1) splitting its votes between Republicans and Democrats up until now; (2) abstaining from electoral participation until now. It is, as one Pennsylvania woman told Arlen Specter, having awakened the "sleeping giant"; Middle America, small town white America, far right America. And when/if that tidal wave hits it'll wipe aside all the elites in the media and in Washington. We don't want this to happen; the best thing that can occur is for Owens to drop out and endorse Scozzafava or vice versa.

[BM]

To be fair, if this was a normal election Hoffman would have run in the Republican primary and likely would have backed off if he lost. The perception might be different though, especially if people like Glenn Beck use his victory (if it happens) as a rallying cry for hyperconservatives.

[cinyc]

If Hoffman does end up winning then hopefully it will inspire right-wing nutcases all around the country to take on their Republican congresscritters next year.

Yeah, because a right-wing nut can easily win a primary in any competitive district

He might mean on a third party ticket like in NY-23 to allow the Democrat to win by splitting the right-wing vote.

Yeah, in the one whole state that has a semi-active Conservative Party - New York - where there's a whopping 2 other Republican Representatives?  That'll go really far.

[Meeker]

If Hoffman does end up winning then hopefully it will inspire right-wing nutcases all around the country to take on their Republican congresscritters next year.

Yeah, because a right-wing nut can easily win a primary in any competitive district

It happens every now and then already. Take a look at MI-07 in 2006 and almost FL-08 in 2008. If the right-wing got really into it they'd have more success. It'd also force the Republican incumbents to spend money on primary challengers.

I highly, highly doubt a third-party type movement would form out of this though, as the only reason Hoffman is running on the Conservative line and not in the Republican primary is because of the bizarre nominating procedure for New York special elections.

[Badger]

A couple things to note about the crosstabs:

Hoffman is inexplicably killing among independent voters by 47/28/11 over Owens and Dede. These same independents favor public option 53/42 and have a 48/40 favorable/unfavorable view of Obama! These are obviously soft targets for Owens to gain ground, but a week before the election may be too late especially with Hoffman's momentum.

Among Republicans Scozzafava is down nine, and Hoffman is up nine. While Scozzafava got 46 percent of Republicans a week ago, she's down to 34 percent this week. Hoffman is up to 41 percent of Republicans this week, compared to 27 percent last week. Dede is utterly hemorrhaging GOP support and it's going mostly to Hoffman. As Dede's support in this poll is primarily from her still holding a third of GOP voters, her inevitably continuing death spiral probably means more voters defecting to Hoffman in the next week.

I initially had a glimmer of hope when I saw the crosstabs of voter id as 32D/42R/26I. "No way", I thought, "notwithstanding this being an off-year special election and energized conservatives yadda yadda that a district that went 52-47 for Obama will have that kind of voter breakdown next Tuesday." Then I found this link: http://www.2008racetracker.com/page/NY-23
showing voter registration in the district

As at 4/1/07
Dem - 115,660 (29.50%)
Rep - 173,376 (44.22%)
Other - 103,050 (26.28%)

Awfully, painfully, close to the actual sample.

Owens needs (or needed) to go all out slamming Hoffman as the extremist he is to win back independent Obama voters, but negative attacks generally don't go over well in the last days of a campaign, often souring the voter on the attacker as much as the target.

Prognosis: Ugly, but hope springs eternal.

[Beet]

A couple things to note about the crosstabs:

Hoffman is inexplicably killing among independent voters by 47/28/11 over Owens and Dede. These same independents favor public option 53/42 and have a 48/40 favorable/unfavorable view of Obama! These are obviously soft targets for Owens to gain ground, but it a week before the election may be too late especially with Hoffman's momentum.

It's not inexplicable at all, if you would just read my post from the last page. Right now what's going on is called a populist wave, exactly as I predicted would happen last November. The rules of the game are as follows:

1. During a populist wave, people who are not usually involved in politics get involved. Electoral dynamics dramatically shift to reflect the new front created by the wave, as opposed to traditional Republican vs. Democratic contests.

2. Beltway pundits, party elites, and other media elites always get taken by surprise because they live and interact in a world insulted from the outside, and because long experience with things working a certain way makes them comfortable and smug that they "know what is going on" and that things will always work a certain way.

3. Most political activists dream of riding a populist wave, and most non-incumbent politicians like to pretend that they are riding one every election, but only rarely does one actually happen.

4. It tends to happen during sharp economic downturns and/or wars on domestic soil. People are frustrated, angry; they feel hopeless and like no one is listening to them. The bailouts and the stimulus weren't popular to start with and the reasons (though I think are sound) haven't been well communicated and well explained to them by our leadership.

5. The people involved are often centrist or moderate by traditional definitions, you wouldn't call them left or right. But usually the far right or the far left are the ones who exploit the populist anger and lead/shape the "revolution" to their own liking. Those that can take advantage of the wave at this time really hit the jackpot so long as it lasts.

The number one, most extreme example of this is the Russian revolution. Probably less than 0.1% of Russians in 1917 adhered to Bolshevism, but people knew they were sick of the war; they were hungry. They wanted peace and security, and neither the Tsar nor the Kerensky government could give it to them. Nothing so extreme is happening here of course, but extreme examples tend to illustrate the general idea the most clearly.

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Wrong; Owens needs to start adopting some of Hoffman's rhetoric-- those parts of it at least, which appeal to those independents and Obama favorables and public option supporters.

Or he could drop out and endorse Scozzafava; from the liberal perspective that would be best, but given that he has such a good chance right now he won't of course.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Fellow moderate Republicans, ready your shields and summon your courage. 

Its gonna be a bumpy ride.

[Badger]

A couple things to note about the crosstabs:

Hoffman is inexplicably killing among independent voters by 47/28/11 over Owens and Dede. These same independents favor public option 53/42 and have a 48/40 favorable/unfavorable view of Obama! These are obviously soft targets for Owens to gain ground, but it a week before the election may be too late especially with Hoffman's momentum.

It's not inexplicable at all, if you would just read my post from the last page. Right now what's going on is called a populist wave, exactly as I predicted would happen last November. The rules of the game are as follows:

1. During a populist wave, people who are not usually involved in politics get involved. Electoral dynamics dramatically shift to reflect the new front created by the wave, as opposed to traditional Republican vs. Democratic contests.

2. Beltway pundits, party elites, and other media elites always get taken by surprise because they live and interact in a world insulted from the outside, and because long experience with things working a certain way makes them comfortable and smug that they "know what is going on" and that things will always work a certain way.

3. Most political activists dream of riding a populist wave, and most non-incumbent politicians like to pretend that they are riding one every election, but only rarely does one actually happen.

4. It tends to happen during sharp economic downturns and/or wars on domestic soil. People are frustrated, angry; they feel hopeless and like no one is listening to them. The bailouts and the stimulus weren't popular to start with and the reasons (though I think are sound) haven't been well communicated and well explained to them by our leadership.

5. The people involved are often centrist or moderate by traditional definitions, you wouldn't call them left or right. But usually the far right or the far left are the ones who exploit the populist anger and lead/shape the "revolution" to their own liking. Those that can take advantage of the wave at this time really hit the jackpot so long as it lasts.

The number one, most extreme example of this is the Russian revolution. Probably less than 0.1% of Russians in 1917 adhered to Bolshevism, but people knew they were sick of the war; they were hungry. They wanted peace and security, and neither the Tsar nor the Kerensky government could give it to them. Nothing so extreme is happening here of course, but extreme examples tend to illustrate the general idea the most clearly.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wrong; Owens needs to start adopting some of Hoffman's rhetoric-- those parts of it at least, which appeal to those independents and Obama favorables and public option supporters.

Or he could drop out and endorse Scozzafava; from the liberal perspective that would be best, but given that he has such a good chance right now he won't of course.

Damned good analysis, Beet. Though I disagree with your final sentence. If anyone should drop out now it should be Dede to endorse Owens. Though I wonder whether her doing so would result in a net gain for Owens or Hoffman.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I just looked on the Doug Hoffman campaign Web site. He seems like a great candidate.

[The Mikado]

Damned good analysis, Beet. Though I disagree with your final sentence. If anyone should drop out now it should be Dede to endorse Owens. Though I wonder whether her doing so would result in a net gain for Owens or Hoffman.

This.  While most of what Beet posted was correct, I don't see how he got from where he started to the belief that the candidate that is tied for the lead should drop out and endorse the distant third place candidate that practically has the wheels coming off her campaign

[Meeker]

“He would be very welcome, with open arms."

“I think it’s pretty clear that a person who would vote for John Boehner, support tax cuts, support growing our economy, and defeat Nancy Pelosi’s tax and spend agenda will be really welcome in our conference, and I think having a person who can win that district off that message would be really good for the Republican Party."

-- NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions earlier today

[cinyc]

Former Governor Pataki endorses Hoffman:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1009/Pataki_endorses_Hoffman.html

They're all jumping ship.  Dede is toast.

Edited to add: I know the constant meme by most on this website is that Sarah Palin's an out-of-touch political dunce.  But in the real world without the spin, she has great political instincts and was far ahead of the curve in endorsing Hoffman.