west va or south carolina?

[WalterMitty]

discuss.

[Lunar]

the one with less racists....err..um....

[President Mitt]

This isn't even a hard question. SC easily.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

South Carolina.

[FloridaRepublican]

South Carolina definitely.  Much higher black percentage there.  Also, West Virginia has been trending very Republican in the last 8 years.  According to Wikipedia, SC has about a 30% black population and WV has about a 3% black population.

[Jacobtm]

SC was closer than all McCain states but MO, MT, GA and AZ.

[DariusNJ]

SC was closer than all McCain states but MO, MT, GA and AZ.

Yeah, but the vote there was very polarized.

West Virginia could vote for Obama if the economy improves before 2012.

[Lunar]

SC was closer than all McCain states but MO, MT, GA and AZ.

And SC is growing in population, which should give it a newer voter base, slightly, than WV, of course

The problem with "closeness" is that it sort of depends on the moveability of voters.  If Obama won by 3% instead of 7%, would he have lost South Carolina by that much more, or would the totals have moved much more substantively in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania?

[Smash255]

South Carolina.  It was closer to begin with, larger black population and has a growing transplant population.

[Alexander Hamilton]

SC was closer than all McCain states but MO, MT, GA and AZ.

And SC is growing in population, which should give it a newer voter base, slightly, than WV, of course

The problem with "closeness" is that it sort of depends on the moveability of voters.  If Obama won by 3% instead of 7%, would he have lost South Carolina by that much more, or would the totals have moved much more substantively in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania?

Nailed it. That sums up most of the Southern states, like SC, and Alabama, and Mississippi. far too polarized of an electorate to experience a large swing.

[You kip if you want to...]

South Carolina easily.

[War on Want]

SC was closer than all McCain states but MO, MT, GA and AZ.

And SC is growing in population, which should give it a newer voter base, slightly, than WV, of course

The problem with "closeness" is that it sort of depends on the moveability of voters.  If Obama won by 3% instead of 7%, would he have lost South Carolina by that much more, or would the totals have moved much more substantively in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania?

Nailed it. That sums up most of the Southern states, like SC, and Alabama, and Mississippi. far too polarized of an electorate to experience a large swing.

Which is why I voted WV in the poll.

[minionofmidas]

An argument can be made for either. All those former Democrats in WVa should, on the one hand, make it easier for Dems to "bounce back" there... (unless the generation dieing off has been very much more Democratic than their descendants) but right now I just don't see it happening in 2012. What's going on with approval polls, birther crap, etc is not looking as if Obama will win back the voters he lost compared to Gore and Kerry (and Republicans aren't going to win back many voters they lost, either. Actually, it feels like something of a replay of Clinton's first term. Sans 1994 that is.)
South Carolina, or rather parts of it, has the right kind of trending going on to become another Virginia or North Carolina... though again, 2012 is almost certainly too soon.

[Tender Branson]

If he actually camapigns there and all the Blacks turn out relative to their share in the population, and gets 3% more of Whites, then maybe.

In 2008, Blacks made up only 25% of the Exit Poll, but 28% of the population. That would be another 3% overall, plus the 3% of Whites would be about 50%.

WV on the other hand is clearly moving away from the Democrats.

[pbrower2a]

West Virginia is much whiter.

Obama would have to win about 48% of the white population to win West Virginia, something that he doesn't achieve outside of the Blue Firewall. South Carolina was much more polarized in its voting along racial lines, and if South Carolinian whites voted like white people in, for example, Kentucky -- then Obama would win the state.

[JSojourner]

South Carolina.  It was closer to begin with, larger black population and has a growing transplant population.

Smash has it just right.  But if Obama is as successful as I believe he will be, either state will not be out of reach.

[Jacobtm]

Nailed it. That sums up most of the Southern states, like SC, and Alabama, and Mississippi. far too polarized of an electorate to experience a large swing.

SC has a much more dynamic economy than Alabama or Mississippi, and is therefore attracting many more transplants from the North-east than the two other states are. Also, given 4 more years, with some older voters dying off, and more liberal transplants moving in, you could see a shift of a couple of points.

Probably not enough to give Obama a win in '12, but you never know with the state of the Republican party.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

South Carolina.

[President Mitt]

Why is this so close? I there a reason 40.5% of those polled think WV would go Obama over SC.

[marvelrobbins]

I picked West Virginia because It has more of a History of voting for Democrats than
South Carolana.Personally I think both will be out of reach.Blacks will vote for Obama In
South Carolana but It doesn't have the factors that put NC In reach In 2008.

[President Mitt]

I picked West Virginia because It has more of a History of voting for Democrats than
South Carolana.Personally I think both will be out of reach.Blacks will vote for Obama In
South Carolana but It doesn't have the factors that put NC In reach In 2008.

SC is one third black, has one of the fastest growing Hispanic populations, and a increasing Northern transplant population (Im actually planning a move to Charleston Myself) West Virginia is 97% White, and overwelmingly Rural. Obama will never ever ever ever ever ever ever ever flip WV even if he parts water, and cures the blind by touching them.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I picked West Virginia because It has more of a History of voting for Democrats than
South Carolana.Personally I think both will be out of reach.Blacks will vote for Obama In
South Carolana but It doesn't have the factors that put NC In reach In 2008.

SC is one third black, has one of the fastest growing Hispanic populations, and a increasing Northern transplant population (Im actually planning a move to Charleston Myself) West Virginia is 97% White, and overwelmingly Rural. Obama will never ever ever ever ever ever ever ever flip WV even if he parts water, and cures the blind by touching them.

Pretty much sums it up. Charleston moved to a solid blue county last election, and we nearly elected a lesbian as our congresswoman (Brown won by 3% or so in SC-1). The trends are pointing to SC being a competitive state as soon as 2012. West Virginia has trended right since 2000. Just because they have a history of voting Democrat doesn't mean anything. Look at Vermont in 1992. Just because they had a history of voting Republican meant nothing. They haven't voted GOP since despite still retaining a Republican governor.

[War on Want]

Why is this so close? I there a reason 40.5% of those polled think WV would go Obama over SC.

Yeah, read Lunar's post.