Here's one trend to watch:
The youngest voters from 2004-2008
State 2004 Margin 2008 Margin Swing
The Mid-Atlantic
PA 60-39 Kerry 66-34 Obama D + 6
DE 54-45 Kerry 71-25 Obama D + 17
NY 72-25 Kerry 76-21 Obama D + 4
NJ 64-35 Kerry 67-32 Obama D + 3
MD 62-35 Kerry 70-26 Obama D + 8
DC 90-8 Kerry 95-5 Obama D + 5
New England
CT 70-29 Kerry 79-18 Obama D + 9
ME 50-48 Bush 67-30 Obama D + 19
NH 57-43 Kerry 61-37 Obama D + 4
VT 71-27 Kerry 81-18 Obama D + 10
MA 72-26 Kerry 78-20 Obama D + 6
RI 68-30 Kerry 68-25 Obama D + 0
The Midwest
OH 56-42 Kerry 61-38 Obama D + 5
IN 52-47 Bush 63-35 Obama D + 16
MO 51-48 Kerry 59-39 Obama D + 8
IA 53-46 Kerry 63-34 Obama D + 10
MI 55-43 Kerry 68-29 Obama D + 13
MN 57-41 Kerry 66-32 Obama D + 9
WI 57-41 Kerry 64-35 Obama D + 7
IL 64-35 Kerry 71-27 Obama D + 7
The Coastal South
VA 54-46 Kerry 63-34 Obama D + 9
NC 56-43 Kerry 74-26 Obama D + 18
SC 51-48 Bush 57-42 Obama D + 9
GA 52-47 Bush 51-48 McCain D + 1
FL 58-41 Kerry 61-37 Obama D + 3
The Deep and Inland South
AL 57-41 Bush 51-49 Obama D + 10
MS 63-37 Kerry 56-43 Obama R + 6
TN 53-46 Bush 59-40 Obama D + 13
KY 54-45 Bush 51-48 Obama D + 6
WV 52-48 Bush 50-50 Tie D + 2
AR 51-47 Bush 49-49 Tie D + 2
LA 53-45 Bush 49-48 McCain D + 4 (but won 18-24 by 53-45)
TX 59-41 Bush 54-45 Obama D + 13
The Plains States
KS 55-44 Bush 51-47 Obama D + 7
ND 68-32 Bush 51-47 Obama D + 19
SD 55-43 Bush 50-48 Obama D + 7
NE 60-38 Bush 54-43 Obama D + 16
OK 62-38 Bush 60-40 McCain D + 2
The Rockies and the Southwest
AZ 50-48 Bush 52-48 Obama D + 4
NV 56-42 Kerry 70-29 Obama D + 14
NM 50-49 Bush 77-21 Obama D + 27
CO 51-47 Kerry No result N/A
UT 77-18 Bush 62-33 McCain D + 15
WY 72-25 Bush 63-35 McCain D + 10
MT 52-43 Bush 61-37 Obama D + 18
ID 65-35 Bush 56-42 McCain D + 7
The West
CA 58-39 Kerry 76-23 Obama D + 18 (80% of 18-24 for Obama)
OR 62-37 Kerry No result N/A
WA 50-47 Kerry No result N/A
AK 59-37 Bush 61-37 Bush R + 2
HI 61-39 Kerry 82-18 Obama D + 21
Figure that this bloc of voters will get larger in 2012 (it will be under 35 instead of under 30) and that it will be no less liberal-leaning by then. I notice that the youngest voters vote much more Democratic than older voters in practically every state.
The significance? Younger voters will supplant older voters in the electorate as older ones die or go senile and no longer vote. If you figure that the voters in a state like Virginia (which voted about 53-46 for Obama) had young voters going 63-34 for Obama. So the youngest 16 years of voters in Virginia voted 63-34 for Obama, then the rest of the electorate voted about 50-50 for Obama.
The math:
(1/4)x(63%) + (3/4) N = 53%
N =49.7%.
Next time with nothing more than the appearance of new young voters and the disappearance of older voters to death or senility, (round up 49.7% to 50%)
(20/64) x 63% + (44/64) x 50% = 54.1%
With no other change than new voters supplanting older voters, such suggests that Obama will win Virginia about 54-44-2. That's roughly a 1.5% change in favor of Obama without doing much.
With someone else's guess on how Congressional seats will be re-apportioned and that the Favorite Son effect will disappear from Arizona (unless Senator John Kyl runs, which I think unlikely). This assumes that Obama will face an opponent as strong as John McCain was in 2008 (which itself is a huge assumption) :
Overpowering Obama win (20%+)
Strong Obama win (10-20%)
Modest Obama win (5-10%)
Weak Obama win (under 5%)
Weak GOP win (under 5%)
Modest GOP win (5-10%)
Strong GOP win (10%-20%)
Overpowering GOP win (20%+)
Nebraska: splits its electoral votes
(Nebraska splits its electoral votes, and the map fails to show it):
NE-01 is "Modest GOP"
NE-02 is "Weak Obama"
NE-03 is "Overwhelming GOP"
the state at large is "Strong GOP"Obama wins of 2008 are solidified everywhere, and many viewers will be turning channels as the suspense fails to develop.
Young voters in Georgia are not particularly liberal -- probably many of them are military, and the military tends to attract conservative-leaning young adults. Georgia, close as it was for Obama in 2008, will not go for him. Older voters in the Dakotas aren't as conservative as those in Kansas, but younger voters in the Dakotas are too close to 50-50 to swing either state. Maybe farm-and-ranch life is good for ensuring that kids really are chips off the old block, so to speak, even in politics.