What does your map look like? (user search)
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Author Topic: What does your map look like?  (Read 15377 times)
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,778


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« on: August 01, 2009, 04:42:17 PM »
Quote from: Giovanni on August 01, 2009, 07:34:12 AM
Quote from: Calvin and Hobbes on August 01, 2009, 05:45:03 AM
Monthly post:

If Obama does really good, this:



Montana is not going Democratic in 2012.

I think there is a small voting bloc, who really, really hates authority, basically hating the establishment, whatever the establishment is. But since youve probably already tossed out my idea, lets provide some facts:

1980: Dems in Control, Montana trends Rep.
1984: Reps in Control, Montana trends Dem.
1988: Reps still in Control, Montana trends Dem.
1992: Reps STILL in Control, Montana trends Dem.
1996: Dems in Control, Montana trends Rep.
2000: Dems in Control, Montana trends Rep.
2004: Reps in Control, Montana trends Dem.
2008: Reps in Control, Montana trends Dem.
2012: Dems in Control, Montana will trend Rep.

Barring some unforseen change, Montana will trend Republican, and keep switching.

Even if it trends Republican, that doesn't mean that it will vote Republican. If Obama is successful, the country as a whole will likely swing to the Democrats. Montana could easily swing Democratic without trending Democratic and, as long as the national swing is high enough, it would vote Democratic. Example: Both Ohio and Florida trended Republican in 2008, yet they both switched from Republican to Democratic.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,778


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2009, 06:25:39 PM »
Quote from: Mechman on August 01, 2009, 05:50:31 PM
Quote from: realisticidealist on August 01, 2009, 04:42:17 PM
Quote from: Giovanni on August 01, 2009, 07:34:12 AM
Quote from: Calvin and Hobbes on August 01, 2009, 05:45:03 AM
Monthly post:

If Obama does really good, this:



Montana is not going Democratic in 2012.

I think there is a small voting bloc, who really, really hates authority, basically hating the establishment, whatever the establishment is. But since youve probably already tossed out my idea, lets provide some facts:

1980: Dems in Control, Montana trends Rep.
1984: Reps in Control, Montana trends Dem.
1988: Reps still in Control, Montana trends Dem.
1992: Reps STILL in Control, Montana trends Dem.
1996: Dems in Control, Montana trends Rep.
2000: Dems in Control, Montana trends Rep.
2004: Reps in Control, Montana trends Dem.
2008: Reps in Control, Montana trends Dem.
2012: Dems in Control, Montana will trend Rep.

Barring some unforseen change, Montana will trend Republican, and keep switching.

Even if it trends Republican, that doesn't mean that it will vote Republican. If Obama is successful, the country as a whole will likely swing to the Democrats. Montana could easily swing Democratic without trending Democratic and, as long as the national swing is high enough, it would vote Democratic. Example: Both Ohio and Florida trended Republican in 2008, yet they both switched from Republican to Democratic.

If realicidealist says so it must be true.

I was merely playing devil's advocate. Tongue
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