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  2004 and Onward
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Author Topic: 2004 and Onward  (Read 10479 times)
Akno21
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« on: October 10, 2004, 07:27:04 am »
« edited: November 10, 2004, 04:26:19 pm by Akno21 »

   After winning control of the government in resounding fashion in November, the rest of the year passed rather uneventfully for the Republicans in Washington. As it began to snow in December, President Bush announced the major changes in his cabinet. Colin Powell would be replaced by John C. Danforth, former Senator of Missouri. John Ashcroft resigned as Attorney General, and was replaced by Alberto Gonzales. Tom Ridge was replaced by former Rep. Asa Hutchinson at the Department of Homeland Security and Condoleezza Rice retired, and was replaced by Steven J. Hadley, her deputy. As re-inauguration approached, the situation in Iraq was getting worse, and the elections seemed doubtful to be orchestrated well. On January 20, 2005, George W. Bush officially continued to be President. Huge protest rallies were staged that day, and several eggs came near to the President’s face. The scene portrayed that of two nations, one whose population was 3.5 million larger.

   Supreme Court Chief Justice William Rehnquist announced that he would resign his seat on the court, a week after the inauguration. President Bush announced that he would name Clarence Thomas Chief Justice. The move caught some by surprise, but politically it made sense. It would force Democrats to vote for a hard Conservative or vote against an African-American, which could have negative effects politically. To fill the vacancy, Bush chose Samuel Alito, a solid Conservative, who had a small chance of being approved. Not surprisingly, Alito failed to get approved, as even some moderate Republicans such as Arlen Specter. So, Alberto Gonzales became the next Justice of the Supreme Court, in a move that seemed acceptable to most Democrats. Senator Harry Reid of Nevada was made the Democratic leader in the Senate, to the surprise of few, while Chris Dodd of Connecticut moved up to the number 2 position.

   The Iraqi elections produce no clear winner. There are endless allegations of fraud, and hundreds of people are said to have been shot at while voting. President Bush immediately proposes a dramatic change of the tax code, to go along with another tax cut. It passes, by a slim margin, as several Republicans voted against it, fearing the implications it could have on the federal deficit. In May, the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve is opened to drilling, in another vote that goes down to party lines, this one being 50-50, with Vice-President Cheney casting the deciding vote. As the situation in Iraq worsens, so does support for the President’s policies. Social Security reform gets bogged down in Congress, and many of his judicial appointees are not confirmed. In September, Senator Lincoln Chaffee, Republican of Rhode Island, announces he will switch parties, and join the Democrats, who he feels better represent his values. With that move, the Senate is 54-45-1, in favor of the Republicans.

   In March of 2006, small numbers of troops begin to pull out of Iraq, with the country in chaos. Later in the month, Rudy Giuliani is chosen to run for Senate in New York, against Hillary Rodham Clinton. Meanwhile, Exploratory Presidential Committees have been formed for the following Democrats

Former Gov. Howard Dean (VT)
Gov. Ed Rendell (PA)
Former Gov. Mark Warner (VA)
Gov. Phil Bredesen (TN)
Gov. Rod Blagojevich (IL)
Gov. Tom Vilsack (IA)
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (KS)
Gov. Bill Richardson (NM)
Gov. Janet Napolitano (AZ)
Gov. Brad Henry (OK)
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (NY)
Former Sen. John Edwards (NC)
Sen. Bill Nelson (FL)
Sen. Evan Bayh (IN)
Sen. Dick Durbin (IL)
Sen. Byron Dorgan (ND)
Sen. Russ Feingold (WI)
Sen. Ron Wyden (OR)
Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH)

And for the following Republicans

Gov. Mitt Romney (MA)
Gov. George Pataki (NY)
Gov. Bob Ehrlich (MD)
Gov. Mike Huckabee (AR)
Gov. Bill Owens (CO)
Gov. Rick Perry (TX)
Former Gov. Tom Ridge (PA)
Gov. Bob Taft (OH)
Gpv. Jeb Bush (FL)
Former Gov. Tommy Thompson (WI)
Sen. Rick Santorum (PA)
Sen. George Allen (VA)
Sen. Chuck Hagel (NE)
Sen. John McCain (AZ)
Sen. George Voinovich (OH)
Sen. Bill Frist (TN)
Sen. Sam Brownback (KS)
Rep. Tom Delay (TX)
Former State Justice Roy Moore (AL)
Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (NY)

Later in the month, Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah introduced a bill that would allow people not born in the United States to become President. It looked certain to fail, until it picked up support from noted internationalist, Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts. Calling for acceptance of foreigners, Mr. Kerry was able to attract enough Democratic support to ensure passage. When President Bush signed the bill, it meant that an enormous “Draft Arnold” movement would start within minutes of its passage. However, the Governator issued a statement saying he was not interested in running for President at this time. 
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Michael Z
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« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2004, 05:26:29 pm »

Good start. More, more!
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« Reply #2 on: November 10, 2004, 06:47:56 pm »

Jeb's said he won't run in '08. Otherwise, excellent! Keep it up! Also:
AIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
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Beet
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« Reply #3 on: November 10, 2004, 09:19:13 pm »

Great story, but somehow I strongly doubt this part:

   The Iraqi elections produce no clear winner.
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Akno21
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« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2004, 06:56:13 am »

Jeb's said he won't run in '08. Otherwise, excellent! Keep it up! Also:

Bush's have lied before.

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Akno21
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« Reply #5 on: November 14, 2004, 10:52:13 pm »
« Edited: November 14, 2004, 10:54:54 pm by Akno21 »

Soon after the passage of the Hatch/Kerry bill, many people move to the United States from all over the world, but mainly Canada and England. People also come from Germany, Sweden, Belgium, Portugal, and one from as far away as Australia.

In August, Sandra Day O’Connor announced that she would step down from the court. President Bush appointed Former Solicitor General Theodore Olsen. Being the husband of someone killed in the 9/11 attacks, he has much sentimental appeal, and is approved rather easily by the Senate.

Later in the month, Israel sends an aerial force to destroy the Iranian Nuclear weapons facility. Similar to the attacks on Iraq 25 years earlier, this strikes a new wave of violence in Israel, this time with Iran openly sending its own armed militants to attack.

As the leaves begin to fall, it becomes time to narrow down the field for the Senate mid-term elections. The true toss-ups are Nebraska, Minnesota, and Tennessee.
The lean Democratic ones are Florida, Michigan, New York, Washington, and Wisconsin.
The lean Republican ones are Missouri, Pennsylvania, Montana, Mississippi, and Nevada. 

Mark Warner decides he can’t beat George Allen, and does not challenge him, fearing a loss would doom his Presidential aspirations. Rudy Giuliani however, runs in a tough match up against Hillary Clinton, in what is easily the most talked about Senate race in the country. Mike Moore is running a competitive race in Mississippi to replace Trent Lott, and Harold Ford Jr. has the edge to replace Bill Frist.

By October, 20% of our troops are out of Iraq, but the county is still in a large amount of chaos, and nothing  seems to have been accomplished, as citizens are still at risk of being killed by stray bullets or simply being in the area of a car bomb.

The elections in November produce few surprising results. The Democrats gain a seat in Tennessee thanks to Harold Ford, but lose a seat in Nebraska. They hold on everywhere else, despite the retirement of Herb Kohl in Wisconsin. The Republicans hold on to all their seats, although Joe Hoeffel gives Rick Santorum a run for his money, losing by only a percentage point. Jim Jeffords is re-elected in Vermont, but this time as a Democrat. It is now 54-46. The Democrats gain a few seats in the House, but they aren't able to gain anything substantial, just getting it back to pre-2002 numbers.

In Maryland, Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley defeats Bob Ehlrich, ending his Presidential aspirations. Sen. Rick Santorum quits the Presidential race after his narrow victory for re-election. On the Democratic side, Governor Sebelius loses in Kansas, ending any hopes she had of getting the nomination. 
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bushforever
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« Reply #6 on: November 14, 2004, 11:07:47 pm »

Blagojevich??  What a joke.  He's done little to help our sorry state.  He's just Mayor Daley's puppet. 

Some of the cabinet picks seem a little out there, and the names are very unfamiliar. 

Otherwise, good predictions.
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Akno21
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« Reply #7 on: November 14, 2004, 11:10:07 pm »

Blagojevich??  What a joke.  He's done little to help our sorry state.  He's just Mayor Daley's puppet. 

Some of the cabinet picks seem a little out there, and the names are very unfamiliar. 

Otherwise, good predictions.

He won't get past the invisible primary (early fundraising), I guarantee. Most successful candidates have simple names.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #8 on: November 14, 2004, 11:17:46 pm »


The Iraqi elections produce no clear winner. There are endless allegations of fraud, and hundreds of people are said to have been shot at while voting.

   In March of 2006, small numbers of troops begin to pull out of Iraq, with the country in chaos.


Such wishful thinking coming from the Demcrats.  I can almost detect the excitement in your post as you type this.
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Jake
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« Reply #9 on: November 14, 2004, 11:19:37 pm »

I doubt the situation in Iraq will deteriorate to early '04 levels of violence. Other than that pretty good view of the next 2 years.
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Akno21
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« Reply #10 on: November 15, 2004, 06:47:12 am »


The Iraqi elections produce no clear winner. There are endless allegations of fraud, and hundreds of people are said to have been shot at while voting.

   In March of 2006, small numbers of troops begin to pull out of Iraq, with the country in chaos.


Such wishful thinking coming from the Demcrats.  I can almost detect the excitement in your post as you type this.

Iraq will turn into chaos but I highly doubt the Democrats will be able to turn it into political victories.
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Akno21
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« Reply #11 on: November 17, 2004, 09:45:50 pm »
« Edited: November 17, 2004, 10:51:35 pm by Akno21 »

After the election, the Republicans in the Senate select their new leader, Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania. To many in the political scene, the move is a signal that the Republicans are abandoning moderates and appealing to the religious right. In March, a small social security reform is passed, with the votes of a few moderate Democrats. It privatizes social security, but not completely, and was a compromise from the original plan of the President.

In April, a full squad of Iranian armed militants and Palestinian forces take over a few blocks of the Israeli city Tel Aviv. President Bush proposes increasing aid to Israel by 15%, and the bill, sponsored by Joe Lieberman, receives zero nay votes.

By May, the candidate lists had been cut down severely. By the time the first debates were to happen in June, the candidates would be for the Democrats:

Howard Dean
Bill Richardson
John Edwards
Ed Rendell
Hillary Clinton
Mark Warner
Evan Bayh
Dennis Kucinich

And for the Republicans

Chuck Hagel
Rudy Giuliani
George Pataki
Bill Owens
Bill Frist
Roy Moore
Mitt Romney
George Allen
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George W. Bush
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« Reply #12 on: November 17, 2004, 10:00:22 pm »

 Replace Allen With taft in that last part and it sounds good.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #13 on: November 17, 2004, 10:02:32 pm »

The Republicans hold on to all their seats, although Joe Hoeffel gives Rick Santorum a run for his money, losing by only a percentage point.

Oh sure this story isn't biased.... Tongue
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Akno21
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« Reply #14 on: November 25, 2004, 10:54:33 am »

Ok, now I'm just gonna do the Presidential races for the next 45 years or so.

August 2007, National
Clinton: 45%
Edwards: 27%
Dean: 20%
Bayh: 12%

Guliani: 34%
Frist: 27%
Owens: 19%
Pataki: 13%

Stevens resigns, replaced by Michael Luttig, an appeals court guy from VA. Court now 6-3 Conservatives.

Bush Approval: 37%

October 2007, Iowa
Bayh: 34%
Edwards: 24%
Dean: 20%
Clinton: 16%

Owens: 27%
Hagel: 21%
Guliani: 15%
Frist: 11%

Bush Approval: 41%

December 2007, Iowa
Bayh: 40%
Dean: 21%
Edwards: 19%
Richardson: 15%

Hagel: 27%
Owens: 26%
Pataki: 15%
Guliani: 14%

Bush Approval: 39%

In New Hampshire, the leaders are Clinton, Rendell, and Dean. For the GOP, Guliani, Romney, Pataki.
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Akno21
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« Reply #15 on: November 26, 2004, 09:46:45 pm »
« Edited: November 28, 2004, 08:40:57 pm by Akno21 »

Iowa Results
Sen. Evan Bayh: 45%
Gov. Howard Dean: 23%
Sen. John Edwards: 13%

Sen. Chuck Hagel: 30%
Gov. Bill Owens: 25%
Mayor Rudy Guliani: 16%

New Hampshire Results
Sen. Hillary Clinton: 43%
Gov. Howard Dean: 31%
Sen. Evan Bayh: 19%

Mayor Rudy Guliani: 26%
Gov. George Pataki: 21%
Gov. Mitt Romney: 19%

For the Democrats, Rendell and Warner drop out, while Frist and Romney drop out for the Republicans. No endorsement yet from Bush, however sources say he is secretly backing Owens.
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Defarge
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« Reply #16 on: November 26, 2004, 10:02:11 pm »

Dean beats Edwards?
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Akno21
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« Reply #17 on: November 26, 2004, 10:11:47 pm »


Yes. Dean basically says, Kerry lost because he wasn't liberal enough, especially on the war. Voters who think Bush could have been beat backlash against Edwards. Also, Edwards had been out of the spotlight for a long time, Dean had a highly publicized run for DNC Chair and generally stayed in the spotlight.

In New Hampshire, Dean would naturally beat Edwards.
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Akno21
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« Reply #18 on: November 27, 2004, 12:27:11 am »
« Edited: November 27, 2004, 10:24:09 am by Akno21 »

Note: Not every state will have results, only a few states from each region, to gain a national picture.
South Carolina Results
Sen. Evan Bayh: 42%
Sen. John Edwards: 28%
Sen. Hillary Clinton: 15%

Gov. Bill Owens: 43%
Sen. George Allen: 21%
Judge Roy Moore: 20%

Arizona Results
Gov. Bill Richardson: 38%
Sen. Hillary Clinton: 31%
Sen. Evan Bayh: 21%

Gov. Bill Owens: 37%
Mayor Rudy Guliani: 26%
Sen. George Allen: 18%

Delaware Results
Sen. Hillary Clinton: 44%
Sen. Evan Bayh: 30%
Gov. Howard Dean: 13%

Mayor Rudy Guliani: 43%
Gov. George Pataki: 30%
Sen. George Allen: 20%

Missouri: Bayh, Hagel
New Mexico: Richardson, Owens
Oklahoma: Bayh, Owens
North Dakota: Bayh, Owens

For the Democrats, after the equivalent of the Feb. 3 elections, Bayh, Clinton, and Richardson are all in good shape. Edwards dropped out to endorse Bayh, and Dean endorsed Clinton.

For the Republicans, Owens, Hagel, and Guliani are the only serious candidates left. Allen dropped out and endorsed Owens after losing South Carolina, and Pataki dropped out to endorse Guliani.

Both Moore and Kucinich will remain in for the duration.
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Akno21
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« Reply #19 on: November 27, 2004, 10:23:39 am »

Michigan Results
Sen. Hillary Clinton: 37%
Sen. Evan Bayh: 35%
Rep. Dennis Kucinich: 12%

Mayor Rudy Guliani: 39%
Gov. Bill Owens: 27%
Sen. Chuck Hagel: 19%

Washington Results
Sen. Hillary Clinton: 43%
Gov. Bill Richardson: 21%
Sen. Evan Bayh: 15%

Gov. Bill Owens: 52%
Mayor Rudy Guliani: 32%
Sen. Chuck Hagel: 13%

Richardson vows to stay in the race until Super Tuesday's results are in, while Hagel says he will make a last stand in Virginia and Tennessee, but if he doesn't win, he will drop out.
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dazzleman
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« Reply #20 on: November 27, 2004, 10:29:11 am »

To allow foreign-born citizens to run for president, it would take a constitutional amendment, which must pass congress by a supermajority (I think 2/3, or maybe 3/4, I can't remember) and then it must be approved by the legislatures of 38 states (3/4 of the states).

It can't just be passed by Congress and signed by the president.  So at least that part of the prediction is impossible.

As far as the rest goes, just wait and see.
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Akno21
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« Reply #21 on: November 27, 2004, 12:29:25 pm »

To allow foreign-born citizens to run for president, it would take a constitutional amendment, which must pass congress by a supermajority (I think 2/3, or maybe 3/4, I can't remember) and then it must be approved by the legislatures of 38 states (3/4 of the states).

It can't just be passed by Congress and signed by the president.  So at least that part of the prediction is impossible.

As far as the rest goes, just wait and see.

I know, I just didn't include all the details of passage. I made it happen so that down the road all the British, Australian, Canadien, etc. people could run for President.
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Akno21
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« Reply #22 on: November 27, 2004, 06:14:08 pm »

Tennessee Results
Sen. Evan Bayh: 63%
Gov. Bill Richardson: 21%
Sen. Hillary Clinton: 15%

Gov. Bill Owens: 56%
Sen. Chuck Hagel: 25%
Mayor Rudy Guliani: 14%

Virginia: Bayh, Owens
Maine: Clinton, Guliani
Nevada: Richardson, Owens
DC: Clinton, Guliani
Wisconsin: Clinton, Guliani
Hawaii: Clinton, Owens
Idaho: Bayh, Owens
Utah: Bayh, Owens

Hagel drops out after this. 

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Akno21
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« Reply #23 on: November 27, 2004, 09:02:03 pm »

For the Democrats, Super Tuesday does little to change the three-way stalemate, although Bayh's win in Minnesota hurt the Clinton campaign because they had spent a lot of money there. On the GOP side, Guliani wins enough primaries to remain in contention, but Owens' victory in California gave him much momentum that would be hard for the Mayor to compete with.

California: Richardson, Owens
Connecticut: Clinton, Guliani
Georgia: Bayh, Owens
Maryland: Clinton, Guliani
New York: Clinton, Guliani
Massachusetts: Clinton, Guliani
Minnesota: Bayh, Owens
Ohio: Bayh, Owens
Rhode Island: Clinton, Guliani
Vermont: Clinton, Guliani

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Akno21
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« Reply #24 on: November 28, 2004, 08:52:38 pm »

Florida Results
Sen. Hillary Clinton: 40%
Sen. Evan Bayh: 24%
Gov. Bill Richardson: 19%

Gov. Bill Owens: 57%
Mayor Rudy Guliani: 35%

Louisiana: Bayh, Owens
Mississippi: Bayh, Owens
Texas: Bayh, Owens

After his dismal performances in two states with large Hispanic populations, Gov. Richardson drops out. Later, Mayor Guliani announces his intention to leave the race. Sen. Clinton says she will fight on, aiming for Illinois.

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