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  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  2004 and Onward
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Author Topic: 2004 and Onward  (Read 10480 times)
Akno21
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« Reply #25 on: November 28, 2004, 08:58:48 pm »

Democrats:


Bayh- Blue
Clinton- Red
Richardson- Green
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Akno21
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« Reply #26 on: November 28, 2004, 09:02:38 pm »



Owens- Blue
Guliani- Red
Hagel- Green
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #27 on: November 28, 2004, 09:05:19 pm »

Go Owens!
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Akno21
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« Reply #28 on: November 28, 2004, 09:15:51 pm »

Simplified Delegate count:
Guliani- 108
Hagel- 18
Owens- 262

Richardson- 75
Clinton- 150
Bayh- 163 (238)

Richardson endorses and gives all his delegates to Bayh, and Hagel gave all his to Owens, putting him over the neccessary margin.
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khirkhib
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« Reply #29 on: November 28, 2004, 11:25:17 pm »

Would that mean that Bayh picks Richardson as his VP.
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Akno21
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« Reply #30 on: November 28, 2004, 11:35:35 pm »

Would that mean that Bayh picks Richardson as his VP.

It's a likely pick. He'll surely be on the short list.
Hillary will max out at about 220 EV/Delagates, or Bayh's snowball may force her to drop out. It's basically Bayh vs. Owens at this point.
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Akno21
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« Reply #31 on: November 29, 2004, 11:25:21 pm »

Sen. Hillary Clinton announces that she will withdraw from the race, seeing as she can't get the neccessary number of delegates.

By the end of March, the race is clear, Evan Bayh for the Democrats and Bill Owens for the Republicans.

We are down to 100,000 thousand troops in Iraq, yet the violence in the country, while gradually going down, is still a threat to the populace.

Meanwhile, by April, reports are beginning to surface out of Tehran about a nuclear missile capable of hitting Israel.

Bill Richardson is the presumable VP pick for Bayh after the endorsement that effectively sealed the Primary. On the Republican side, the short list includes:
Gov. George Pataki
Sen. Rick Santorum
Sen. Sam Brownback
Gov. Mitt Romney
Sen. Norm Coleman
Sen. George Allen
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Akno21
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« Reply #32 on: December 01, 2004, 08:55:43 pm »

In Detriot, the Democratic Convention begins in late July. The ticket of Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana and Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico is confirmed by the party. At the second day of the convention, during a speech by Senator Barack Obama, word reaches the convention that the Israeli city of Tel Aviv has been atttacked by a nuclear missile. The convention goes into lockdown, and all eyes are turned to see what George W. Bush will do, and what Ariel Sharon will do.

By the start of August, Israel has bombed Iran hundreds of times, and has sent over several nuclear missiles. Iran is joined by the Palestinians, but much of the Middle East is quiet in the matter. The United States doubles aid to Israel, and the world comes out in support of Israel, and sends dollars and aid.

At the GOP Convention in Houston, the ticket of Governor Bill Owens of Colorado and Senator George Allen of Virginia is nominated for President.

An early estimate of the Electoral College shows the following


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khirkhib
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« Reply #33 on: December 01, 2004, 10:05:23 pm »

Wow you just took a step on to the deep end of prediction.  Are you channeling Nostradamus.
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Akno21
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« Reply #34 on: December 01, 2004, 10:20:43 pm »

Wow you just took a step on to the deep end of prediction.  Are you channeling Nostradamus.

I'm just trying to make it more interesting. I also have interesting things planned with Saudi Arabia, China, and North Korea.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #35 on: December 02, 2004, 12:47:28 am »

In Detriot, the Democratic Convention begins in late July. The ticket of Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana and Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico is confirmed by the party. At the second day of the convention, during a speech by Senator Barack Obama, word reaches the convention that the Israeli city of Tel Aviv has been atttacked by a nuclear missile. The convention goes into lockdown, and all eyes are turned to see what George W. Bush will do, and what Ariel Sharon will do.

By the start of August, Israel has bombed Iran hundreds of times, and has sent over several nuclear missiles. Iran is joined by the Palestinians, but much of the Middle East is quiet in the matter. The United States doubles aid to Israel, and the world comes out in support of Israel, and sends dollars and aid.

At the GOP Convention in Houston, the ticket of Governor Bill Owens of Colorado and Senator George Allen of Virginia is nominated for President.

An early estimate of the Electoral College shows the following




I don't think that even Bayh could pull in Indiana, but since Tennessee was a "given" for Gore right up until election day....
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Alcon
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« Reply #36 on: December 02, 2004, 01:44:42 am »

In Detriot, the Democratic Convention begins in late July. The ticket of Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana and Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico is confirmed by the party. At the second day of the convention, during a speech by Senator Barack Obama, word reaches the convention that the Israeli city of Tel Aviv has been atttacked by a nuclear missile. The convention goes into lockdown, and all eyes are turned to see what George W. Bush will do, and what Ariel Sharon will do.

By the start of August, Israel has bombed Iran hundreds of times, and has sent over several nuclear missiles. Iran is joined by the Palestinians, but much of the Middle East is quiet in the matter. The United States doubles aid to Israel, and the world comes out in support of Israel, and sends dollars and aid.

At the GOP Convention in Houston, the ticket of Governor Bill Owens of Colorado and Senator George Allen of Virginia is nominated for President.

An early estimate of the Electoral College shows the following




I don't think that even Bayh could pull in Indiana, but since Tennessee was a "given" for Gore right up until election day....

Bayh is an institution in Indiana. Gore was hardly as popular in Tennessee. How much was he elected by?
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ATFFL
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« Reply #37 on: December 02, 2004, 07:56:11 am »


I don't think that even Bayh could pull in Indiana, but since Tennessee was a "given" for Gore right up until election day....

Bayh is an institution in Indiana. Gore was hardly as popular in Tennessee. How much was he elected by?

I doubt Indiana would be seen as a given from day 1.  Bayh could win it, but it would not be a solid lock from the start. 

The notion that home states always go for their candidate is fairly recent and highly mistaken.
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Alcon
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« Reply #38 on: December 02, 2004, 10:40:28 am »


I don't think that even Bayh could pull in Indiana, but since Tennessee was a "given" for Gore right up until election day....

Bayh is an institution in Indiana. Gore was hardly as popular in Tennessee. How much was he elected by?

I doubt Indiana would be seen as a given from day 1.  Bayh could win it, but it would not be a solid lock from the start. 

The notion that home states always go for their candidate is fairly recent and highly mistaken.

Although I agree, Bayh really is loved in Indiana. How much was Gore elected by in Tennessee prior to Vice Presidency?
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Beet
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« Reply #39 on: December 03, 2004, 05:08:17 pm »

Warner has a much better shot at pulling in Virgnia than Bayh has at Indiana. Indiana is trending more and more Republican every year.
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Akno21
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« Reply #40 on: December 03, 2004, 07:46:22 pm »

For those who are picky. This is of August 31.



Dark Red: Bayh up 9% or more
Red: Bayh up 6-9%
Pink: Bayh up 3-6%
White: No one up more than 3%
Purple: Owens up 3-6%
Blue: Owens up 6-9%
Dark Blue: Owens up 9% or more

Iran surrenders in early September. With the nation in a state of ruins unparalled since World War 2, the new government will certainly be different. A major campaign issue becomes how much the United States should lobby to get a satisfactory government in place. At the Olympics in Beijing, the Chinese defeat the Amiercans in the medal count. President Bush is overheard talking about "Those Chinese bastards" and the Chinese government immediatly bans all positive references of him. Relations with the rest of the world are icy at best. The budget is in terrible shape, and it is beginning to look like either a tax cut or a major cut in social spending will be neccessary. 


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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #41 on: December 04, 2004, 11:06:13 am »

Warner has a much better shot at pulling in Virgnia than Bayh has at Indiana. Indiana is trending more and more Republican every year.

Republicans account for 46% of Indiana voters against 32% Democrats and 22% Independents.

Assuming those who vote Bayh for Senator vote for him as President, he'll cruise home in Indiana. However, I wouldn't expect 35% of Republicans voting for Bayh as President. It will be lower - but he should still carry his state, if he retains the vast majority of independents

Bayh's always been popular among Hoosiers as governor and senator. I think senators, who have previously been govenors, tend to have a safer tenure

Dave
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