Vermont 2002: How did the Republicans pick up this seat??

[RIP Robert H Bork]

And how do they manage to keep it in Republican hands?

It is quite surprising that Vermont, an overwhelmingly Democratic state for quite some time now, has had a Republican governor since 2003, when it already was known as a Democratic state elsewhere.

I mean, in 2002, Howard Dean left office, and I doubt that there was anything significantly unpopular about him. By then, Vermont already had an entirely Democratic congressional delegation, with then representative Bernard Sanders and then senator James Jeffords (later succeeded by Sanders) caucusing with the Democrats despite officially being independents. He recieved a plurality of the vote in the election, but won in the state legislature (!).

In 2004, Vermont overwhelmingly voted for John Kerry in the presidential election, and incumbent Democratic senator Pat Leahy won reelection easily, yet the Democratic nominee for governor lost the race in a landslide after trying to compare Douglas to George Bush.

In 2006, even though then representative Bernard Sanders won the race to succeed James Jeffords by a large margin (about 2 to 1), Douglas was again reelected, albeit by not as impressive a margin as in 2004.

In 2008, Barack Obama improved still further on Kerry's 2004 margin, yet Douglas won a majority of votes in a three way race where the independent finished ahead of the Democrat (!).

While people keep saying that Vermont is unwinnable for the Republicans, it is surprising that they do so well here. Further, the lieutenant governor (who is elected separately!) is also a Republican and also has held office since 2003.

So, what caused the Republicans to win here, and how do they manage to hold on regardless of how poorly they perform elsewhere?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Vermont decided to make up for the Democratic pickup in Wyoming that year.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

1. Backlash from civil unions. The implementation of civil unions caused the Republicans to take control of the State House in 2000, and Dean just barely won a majority that year. It probably carried over into 2002.

2. 2002 was a very bad year for parties holding governor's mansions. 20 states switched parties that year.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

How did the Democrats pick up Oklahoma or Wyoming in 2002?

Being stronhold in Presidential and congressional elections not really always mean it's also a gubernatorial stronghold

[pogo stick]

How did the Democrats pick up Oklahoma or Wyoming in 2002?

Being stronhold in Presidential and congressional elections not really always mean it's also a gubernatorial stronghold

Becuase Fruantial is a conservative and Henry isn't a loser like Frank Keating.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

How did the Democrats pick up Oklahoma or Wyoming in 2002?

Being stronhold in Presidential and congressional elections not really always mean it's also a gubernatorial stronghold

Becuase Fruantial is a conservative and Henry isn't a loser like Frank Keating.

Popular two-term Governor is a loser?

[Mechaman]

How did the Democrats pick up Oklahoma or Wyoming in 2002?

Being stronhold in Presidential and congressional elections not really always mean it's also a gubernatorial stronghold

Becuase Fruantial is a conservative and Henry isn't a loser like Frank Keating.

Popular two-term Governor is a loser?

For a Republican Governor of Oklahoma, Frank Keating was pretty cool. He never really said anything about social issues (that I'm aware of), just took care of economic issues.

[HAnnA MArin County]

I assume you mean the Governor's seat? Probably because the Vermont Republican Party is more liberal than the mainstream Democratic Party! Jim Douglas is relatively popular (I think?), as is his GOP colleague from nearby Connecticut, M. Jodi Rell. You see this trend in deeply partisan states like blue state Vermont which is dominated by Democrats everywhere and red state Wyoming which is dominated by Republicans everywhere but has popular Governors of the opposite party. A bit of an anomaly, but interesting, nonetheless.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I assume you mean the Governor's seat?

Obviously, as there was no other race in Vermont at the time besides the House, and the Republicans clearly didn't win that one. Also, my earlier post clearly is talking about the gubernatorial election.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Douglas was a popular office holder whose career goes back decades in Vermont statewide politics. 2002 was a great year for Republicans, and there was a bit of backlash against civil unions, though that certainly doesn't tell the whole story.

[Holmes]

Kinda funny how opposing same-sex marriage is a negative in Vermont now.

[Verily]

Vermont was not solidly Democratic in 2002, so the point is pretty moot. Look at the 2000 Presidential results; obviously not competitive, but not overwhelmingly Democratic, either. The partisan shift in Vermont is very, very recent.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Republicans also have been wiped out in the State Legislature after holding the lower house as recently as 2000. Douglas and Dubie were greatly helped by vote splitting in 2002 as well so its kind of like Minnesota in a way.

[Lunar]

For the same reason that liberal states elect Republican governors all the time and conservative states like Oklahoma and Wyoming elect Democratic governors all the time. 

And VT 2002 was a really close race that involved a third party taking a deciding amount of the votes.

[sg0508]

Because Douglas is generally pretty quiet and doesn't piss people off up there.  Plus, I think the state economy has done well.  He's socially moderate, which of course helps and gov races are more bipartisan.

The democrats also haven't put a serious challenger up against him yet.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Because Douglas is generally pretty quiet and doesn't piss people off up there.  Plus, I think the state economy has done well.  He's socially moderate, which of course helps and gov races are more bipartisan.

The democrats also haven't put a serious challenger up against him yet.

Well they did put a State Assembly Speaker up against him I beleive. Its ironic but Lt Gov. Dubie is actually I beleive Pro-Life. Yet he either doesn't mention much or the people don't much care since its Lt Governor and not Governor/Senator/ House member etc.

[Badger]

As Sam Spade once mentioned, all 50 states governors races can be considered open races. Party ID matters far less than in federal races. Hence Douglas and Lingle in VT and HI, and Henry and Freudenthal in OK and WY.

That and the opposition has been split in previous elections between Democrats and the Vermont Progressive Party. Unite them with a Progressive acceptable to Vermont's mainstream and Douglas could have problems.

[nkpatel1279]

In 2002- Republicans won Governorships in MA and RI.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

In 2002- Republicans won Governorships in MA and RI.

u dont say

[nkpatel1279]

In 2002- Republicans won Governorships in MA and RI.

u dont say

Mr. Moderate- Meet me in the Minneapolis- St Paul- Airport Bathroom.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

In 2002- Republicans won Governorships in MA and RI.

u dont say

Mr. Moderate- Meet me in the Minneapolis- St Paul- Airport Bathroom.

how many electrical votes does it have

[pogo stick]

In 2002- Republicans won Governorships in MA and RI.

u dont say

Mr. Moderate- Meet me in the Minneapolis- St Paul- Airport Bathroom.

LOL wow.

[The Age Wave]

Better question is how does RI have a GOP gGovernor?

[Lunar]

it's so weird for states as partisan as California, Hawaii, Vermont, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and so on to be represented by Republicans.  Hell, I bet a mayor of NYC would refuse to take the Republican ballot slot just because of the message it would send.  Just like Oklahoma, Kansas and Kentucky would never let a Democrat govern them.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Better question is how does RI have a GOP gGovernor?

Myrth York.