wisconsin?

[WalterMitty]

how does wisconsin currently stand?

is kerry scaling back his effort in wisconsin.  it seems to me that the democrats are concentrating their efforts on florida, ohio, and pennsylvania. 

[DarthKosh]

how does wisconsin currently stand?

is kerry scaling back his effort in wisconsin.  it seems to me that the democrats are concentrating their efforts on florida, ohio, and pennsylvania. 

I think the state is a lean Bush at the moment.

[Tory]

I think Wisconsin is going to Bush. The Democrats need to concentrate on Ohio and Pennsylvania. They need to leave Wisconsin and Florida alone, they probably won't win Wisconsin and most likely will not win Florida.

[Shira]

how does wisconsin currently stand?

is kerry scaling back his effort in wisconsin.  it seems to me that the democrats are concentrating their efforts on florida, ohio, and pennsylvania. 

I think the state is a lean Bush at the moment.

Could well be that Bush is leading. It is clear however, that the gap has probabaly nerrowed by 2% approximately compare to what it was two weeks ago.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Kerry needs to get over there and get that state back in his column.  Look, Florida's not looking good.  Gore had an incredible Florida effort in 2000 and still lost.  Kerry is not winning there.  Kerry could take OH and PA and still lose if he wins all the Gore states minus IA and WI.

Kerry needs one of those two states. 

[DarthKosh]

how does wisconsin currently stand?

is kerry scaling back his effort in wisconsin.  it seems to me that the democrats are concentrating their efforts on florida, ohio, and pennsylvania. 

I think the state is a lean Bush at the moment.

Could well be that Bush is leading. It is clear however, that the gap has probabaly nerrowed by 2% approximately compare to what it was two weeks ago.

I think Bush leads by four or five percent.

[Gustaf]

I think Wisconsin is about the same as the national average, or at least would be if the race was tight. Kerry cannot afford to lose it. It's hard to see him win without performing good in the Midwest.

[afleitch]

Wisconsin, along with Iowa are 'storming' states. i,e, the last few days right up until election day the Democrats will hit the phones and the doorsteps to get the vote out. The Dems will probably take them again by slim margins.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

And weren't these states polling slightly toward Bush in 2000?  In the end, I agree with the previous posts.  They are bedrock democratic states.  I can see the democrats really getting the vote out in the last few days.  I say the Dems win WI, and the Reps barely win IA.  I can not emphasize any more how badly Kerry needs one of these.  The states are starting to settle into their respective columns, and the math doesn't add up to 270 for Kerry if he can't perform well in the upper midwest. 

[WalterMitty]

And weren't these states polling slightly toward Bush in 2000?  In the end, I agree with the previous posts.  They are bedrock democratic states. 

nevermind the fact that the republican party was founded in wisconsin.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And weren't these states polling slightly toward Bush in 2000?  In the end, I agree with the previous posts.  They are bedrock democratic states. 

nevermind the fact that the republican party was founded in wisconsin.

and the Democrats used to get 95%+ in South Carolina. What's your point?

[Friar]

I think Wisconsin is about the same as the national average, or at least would be if the race was tight. Kerry cannot afford to lose it. It's hard to see him win without performing good in the Midwest.

Kerry can afford to lose Wisconsin but he won't lose it.

Gore states - Wisconsin + Ohio = 270

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Flip a coin.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I think Wisconsin is about the same as the national average, or at least would be if the race was tight. Kerry cannot afford to lose it. It's hard to see him win without performing good in the Midwest.

Kerry can afford to lose Wisconsin but he won't lose it.

Gore states - Wisconsin + Ohio = 270

Yes, there are some ways Kerry can win without Wisconsin. That's probably the most likely one, with maybe NH replacing 1 ME elector.

[WalterMitty]

And weren't these states polling slightly toward Bush in 2000?  In the end, I agree with the previous posts.  They are bedrock democratic states. 

nevermind the fact that the republican party was founded in wisconsin.

and the Democrats used to get 95%+ in South Carolina. What's your point?

big difference between sc and wisconisn.

wisconsin is a swing state with a large republican presence.  the state has also been trending gop for some time now.

sc has completely left the democratic party.  outside of the black community, there is almost no democratic activity in the state.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And weren't these states polling slightly toward Bush in 2000?  In the end, I agree with the previous posts.  They are bedrock democratic states. 

nevermind the fact that the republican party was founded in wisconsin.

and the Democrats used to get 95%+ in South Carolina. What's your point?

big difference between sc and wisconisn.

wisconsin is a swing state with a large republican presence.  the state has also been trending gop for some time now.

sc has completely left the democratic party.  outside of the black community, there is almost no democratic activity in the state.

true, but the fact that they Republican party was founded there has no relevance at this point. Especially since many of those founders wouldn't be Republicans today, or many famous Wisconsin Republicans. Robert LaFollette sure as hell wouldn't be a Republican today.

[AuH2O]

History doesn't matter.

Bush is not really the ideal Republican for the upper Midwest, but then, Kerry is far from ideal either. I concur with the CW that Bush will win Wisconsin in a close race.

[TheOldLine]

Kerry can afford to lose Wisconsin but he won't lose it.

Gore states - Wisconsin + Ohio = 270

That means essentially putting all of your eggs in the New Mexico basket.   In that scenario, Bush can pick up either NM, IA, or MN to more than offset the loss of New Hampshire.   Hell, in that scenario Bush can pick up ME CD2 to send it to the House.

I would think that Kerry is playing for a scenario with more "outs" than that.

TheOldLine

[J. J.]

Kerry can afford to lose Wisconsin but he won't lose it.

Gore states - Wisconsin + Ohio = 270

That means essentially putting all of your eggs in the New Mexico basket.   In that scenario, Bush can pick up either NM, IA, or MN to more than offset the loss of New Hampshire.   Hell, in that scenario Bush can pick up ME CD2 to send it to the House.

I would think that Kerry is playing for a scenario with more "outs" than that.

TheOldLine

This has been my basic argument for Kerry getting out of FL and staying in WV.  The resources, in terms of time, staff, and money are better spent in the mid-west/mid-Atlantic states that trying to capture FL.

[Sam Spade]

Honestly, even though I think it's the right tactical move at this point (unless something major happens at the last debate), he can't get out of FL because I think it'd really demoralize his base, like some of the posters here.

It's sort of a catch-22.

[Shira]

Kerry can afford to lose Wisconsin but he won't lose it.

Gore states - Wisconsin + Ohio = 270

That means essentially putting all of your eggs in the New Mexico basket.   In that scenario, Bush can pick up either NM, IA, or MN to more than offset the loss of New Hampshire.   Hell, in that scenario Bush can pick up ME CD2 to send it to the House.

I would think that Kerry is playing for a scenario with more "outs" than that.

TheOldLine

This has been my basic argument for Kerry getting out of FL and staying in WV.  The resources, in terms of time, staff, and money are better spent in the mid-west/mid-Atlantic states that trying to capture FL.

Yes. It is very likely that Bush is leading in FL. However, it will be a fatal mistake to pull out of FL now. It turned out that Gore unjustifiably pulled out of OH. Kerry is behind in many polls but in some he is ahead.

[J. J.]

Kerry can afford to lose Wisconsin but he won't lose it.

Gore states - Wisconsin + Ohio = 270

That means essentially putting all of your eggs in the New Mexico basket.   In that scenario, Bush can pick up either NM, IA, or MN to more than offset the loss of New Hampshire.   Hell, in that scenario Bush can pick up ME CD2 to send it to the House.

I would think that Kerry is playing for a scenario with more "outs" than that.

TheOldLine

This has been my basic argument for Kerry getting out of FL and staying in WV.  The resources, in terms of time, staff, and money are better spent in the mid-west/mid-Atlantic states that trying to capture FL.

Yes. It is very likely that Bush is leading in FL. However, it will be a fatal mistake to pull out of FL now. It turned out that Gore unjustifiably pulled out of OH. Kerry is behind in many polls but in some he is ahead.

Limited resources.  Gore very likely couldn't attempt FL and stay in OH and PA.  The point is, when the dust settled, Gore lost FL. 

You hit FL for two reasons:

1. Win it.

2. Draw resources from other states.

Number 2 isn't possible because of Bush's lead in the mid-west.

[Sam Spade]

I disagree about Gore in Ohio.  He wouldn't have won it anyway.  The Bush internals were showing him up +8 the weekend before the election. 

The only reason why it was that close is because their GOTV effort collapsed, especially in SE Ohio.  That added a couple of points to the DUI slip as well.

Gore made the correct move.  He missed being President by only 537 votes and that wouldn't have changed had he stayed in Ohio.

[Shira]

Limited resources.  Gore very likely couldn't attempt FL and stay in OH and PA.  The point is, when the dust settled, Gore lost FL. 

You hit FL for two reasons:

1. Win it.

2. Draw resources from other states.

Number 2 isn't possible because of Bush's lead in the mid-west.

Compare to Gore, Kerry is much better financed.

[Shira]

Limited resources.  Gore very likely couldn't attempt FL and stay in OH and PA.  The point is, when the dust settled, Gore lost FL. 

You hit FL for two reasons:

1. Win it.

2. Draw resources from other states.

Number 2 isn't possible because of Bush's lead in the mid-west.

Approximately 7.1 million are going to vote in FL this time. 5.6 million of them are veteran voters and 1.5 are new or new-in-Florida. It is safe to say that the 5.6 veterans will vote like in 2000 i.e. evenly splitted between Kerry and Bush. The 1.5 M new voters are 1.5 M enigmas. Who are they? Are they properly and proportionally being polled? My feeling ( I admit…) is that the demographics and the sociological makeup of these new voters make them more Kerry-leaning.