Bellwether States and Counties

Bellwether States and Counties - 1960 through 1996

Two states and eight counties have voted for the winning candidate in every election from 1960 through 1996. These are shown below:

Bellwether Map

For 2000 and 2004, the state of Delaware and its dominant county, New Castle, have lost their bellwether status having voting solidly Democratic in the 2004 election (5.1% and 12.3% respectively above the national result). Also, Socorro, NM loses its bellwether status, having voted for Kerry in 2004. Arguably, Eddy, NM and Ferry, WA may also no longer vote in bellwether fashion as the result in each county differed from the national result by more than 9%. The most solid bellwether is Vigo, IN having maintained an average difference relative to the national result of 0.9 percentage points for all Democratic and Replubican Candidates since 1960. The results for the 1960 - 1996 bellwethers are shown below.

Results Nationwide

National

Year	D	R	I	Margin	%Margin	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Oth.
2004	2	1	-	3,012,457	2.46%	48.26%	50.73%	0.00%	1.01%
2000	1	2	3	547,398	0.52%	48.38%	47.87%	2.74%	1.02%
1996	1	2	3	8,201,370	8.52%	49.23%	40.72%	8.40%	1.65%
1992	1	2	3	5,805,256	5.56%	43.01%	37.45%	18.91%	0.64%
1988	2	1	-	7,077,103	7.73%	45.65%	53.37%	0.00%	0.98%
1984	2	1	-	16,878,120	18.22%	40.56%	58.77%	0.00%	0.67%
1980	2	1	3	8,423,115	9.74%	41.01%	50.75%	6.61%	1.63%
1976	1	2	-	1,683,247	2.06%	50.08%	48.01%	0.00%	1.91%
1972	2	1	-	17,995,488	23.15%	37.52%	60.67%	0.00%	1.80%
1968	2	1	3	511,944	0.70%	42.72%	43.42%	13.53%	0.33%
1964	1	2	3	15,953,286	22.58%	61.05%	38.47%	0.30%	0.18%
1960	1	2	3	112,827	0.16%	49.72%	49.55%	0.42%	0.32%

Results for Bellwether States

Delaware:

Year	D	R	I	Margin	%Margin	Results for Delaware				-	Difference from National
Year	D	R	I	Margin	%Margin	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Oth.	-	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Oth.
2004	1	2	-	28,492	7.59%	53.34%	45.74%	0.00%	0.92%		5.07%	-4.98%	0.00%	-0.09%
2000	1	2	3	42,780	13.06%	54.96%	41.90%	2.54%	0.60%		6.58%	-5.96%	-0.20%	-0.42%
1996	1	2	3	41,293	15.23%	51.78%	36.54%	10.59%	1.09%		2.54%	-4.17%	2.20%	-0.57%
1992	1	2	3	23,741	8.19%	43.51%	35.31%	20.44%	0.74%		0.50%	-2.13%	1.53%	0.10%
1988	2	1	-	30,992	12.40%	43.48%	55.88%	0.00%	0.64%		-2.17%	2.51%	0.00%	-0.34%
1984	2	1	-	50,534	19.85%	39.93%	59.78%	0.00%	0.29%		-0.62%	1.01%	0.00%	-0.38%
1980	2	1	3	5,498	2.33%	44.87%	47.21%	6.91%	1.01%		3.86%	-3.54%	0.30%	-0.62%
1976	1	2	-	12,765	5.41%	51.98%	46.57%	0.00%	1.44%		1.91%	-1.44%	0.00%	-0.47%
1972	2	1	-	48,074	20.41%	39.18%	59.60%	0.00%	1.22%		1.66%	-1.08%	0.00%	-0.58%
1968	2	1	3	7,520	3.51%	41.61%	45.12%	13.28%	0.00%		-1.11%	1.70%	-0.25%	-0.33%
1964	1	2	0	44,626	22.17%	60.95%	38.78%	0.00%	0.27%		-0.10%	0.31%	-0.30%	0.09%
1960	1	2	0	3,217	1.64%	50.63%	49.00%	0.00%	0.37%		0.92%	-0.55%	-0.42%	0.05%

Missouri:

Year	D	R	I	Margin	%Margin	Results for Missouri				-	Difference from National
Year	D	R	I	Margin	%Margin	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Oth.	-	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Oth.
2004	2	1	-	196,542	7.20%	46.10%	53.30%	0.00%	0.60%		-2.16%	2.57%	0.00%	-0.41%
2000	2	1	3	78,786	3.34%	47.08%	50.42%	1.63%	0.86%		-1.30%	2.56%	-1.10%	-0.15%
1996	1	2	3	135,919	6.30%	47.54%	41.24%	10.06%	1.16%		-1.69%	0.53%	1.67%	-0.50%
1992	1	2	3	242,714	10.15%	44.07%	33.92%	21.69%	0.33%		1.06%	-3.53%	2.78%	-0.31%
1988	2	1	-	83,334	3.98%	47.85%	51.83%	0.00%	0.32%		2.20%	-1.54%	0.00%	-0.66%
1984	2	1	-	425,605	20.05%	39.98%	60.02%	0.00%	0.00%		-0.58%	1.25%	0.00%	-0.67%
1980	2	1	3	142,999	6.81%	44.35%	51.16%	3.71%	0.79%		3.33%	0.41%	-2.90%	-0.84%
1976	1	2	-	70,944	3.63%	51.10%	47.47%	0.00%	1.42%		1.03%	-0.54%	0.00%	-0.49%
1972	2	1	-	455,527	24.59%	37.71%	62.29%	0.00%	0.00%		0.18%	1.62%	0.00%	-1.80%
1968	2	1	3	20,488	1.13%	43.74%	44.87%	11.39%	0.00%		1.02%	1.45%	-2.13%	-0.33%
1964	1	2	0	510,809	28.10%	64.05%	35.95%	0.00%	0.00%		3.00%	-2.52%	-0.30%	-0.18%
1960	1	2	0	9,980	0.52%	50.26%	49.74%	0.00%	0.00%		0.54%	0.19%	-0.42%	-0.32%

Results for Bellwether Counties

Logan, AR:

Year	D	R	I	Margin	%Margin	Results for Logan, AR				-	Difference from National
Year	D	R	I	Margin	%Margin	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Oth.	-	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Oth.
2004	2	1	-	1,715	20.06%	39.31%	59.36%	0.00%	1.33%		-8.96%	8.64%	0.00%	0.32%
2000	2	1	4	1,204	14.87%	40.55%	55.42%	1.53%	2.50%		-7.83%	7.56%	-1.20%	1.48%
1996	1	2	3	866	10.82%	47.89%	37.07%	13.10%	1.95%		-1.35%	-3.65%	4.70%	0.30%
1992	1	2	3	587	6.76%	45.99%	39.23%	14.04%	0.74%		2.98%	1.78%	-4.86%	0.10%
1988	2	1	-	949	27.08%	35.79%	62.87%	0.00%	1.34%		-9.86%	9.50%	0.00%	0.36%
1984	2	1	-	2,457	27.39%	35.75%	63.14%	0.00%	1.11%		-4.81%	4.37%	0.00%	0.45%
1980	2	1	3	413	4.63%	45.98%	50.61%	1.86%	1.55%		4.96%	-0.14%	-4.75%	-0.08%
1976	1	2	-	2,404	28.98%	64.06%	35.07%	0.00%	0.87%		13.98%	-12.94%	0.00%	-1.05%
1972	2	1	-	3,008	43.28%	28.14%	71.42%	0.00%	0.43%		-9.38%	10.75%	0.00%	-1.37%
1968	3	1	2	181	2.79%	30.74%	36.02%	33.24%	0.00%		-11.98%	-7.40%	19.71%	-0.33%
1964	1	2	0	1,339	22.71%	61.13%	38.42%	0.00%	0.46%		0.07%	-0.05%	-0.30%	0.28%
1960	1	2	0	622	13.06%	55.33%	42.28%	0.00%	2.39%		5.62%	-7.28%	-0.42%	2.08%

Van Buren, AR:

Year	D	R	I	Margin	%Margin	Results for Van Buren, AR				-	Difference from National
Year	D	R	I	Margin	%Margin	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Oth.	-	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Oth.
2004	2	1	-	678	9.19%	44.89%	54.08%	0.00%	1.03%		-3.38%	3.36%	0.00%	0.02%
2000	2	1	3	283	4.05%	45.85%	49.90%	2.19%	2.06%		-2.54%	2.03%	-0.54%	1.05%
1996	1	2	3	1,176	17.29%	51.77%	34.48%	12.20%	1.54%		2.54%	-6.23%	3.81%	-0.11%
1992	1	2	3	1,207	16.40%	51.88%	35.48%	12.06%	0.57%		8.88%	-1.96%	-6.84%	-0.07%
1988	2	1	-	955	15.38%	41.99%	57.37%	0.00%	0.64%		-3.66%	4.00%	0.00%	-0.34%
1984	2	1	-	1,531	22.99%	37.98%	60.97%	0.00%	1.05%		-2.58%	2.20%	0.00%	0.38%
1980	2	1	3	122	1.94%	47.17%	49.11%	2.43%	1.29%		6.16%	-1.64%	-4.18%	-0.34%
1976	1	2	-	2,380	42.29%	71.14%	28.86%	0.00%	0.00%		21.07%	-19.16%	0.00%	-1.91%
1972	2	1	-	1,028	24.27%	37.64%	61.91%	0.00%	0.45%		0.11%	1.24%	0.00%	-1.35%
1968	3	1	2	101	2.73%	31.07%	35.83%	33.10%	0.00%		-11.65%	-7.59%	19.57%	-0.33%
1964	1	2	0	784	23.39%	61.28%	37.89%	0.00%	0.84%		0.22%	-0.58%	-0.30%	0.66%
1960	1	2	0	149	6.57%	51.08%	44.51%	0.00%	4.41%		1.36%	-5.04%	-0.42%	4.10%

New Castle, DE:

Year	D	R	I	Margin	%Margin	Results for New Castle, DE				-	Difference from National
Year	D	R	I	Margin	%Margin	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Oth.	-	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Oth.
2004	1	2	-	53,100	21.99%	60.52%	38.54%	0.00%	0.94%		12.26%	-12.19%	0.00%	-0.07%
2000	1	2	3	48,952	22.98%	59.86%	36.88%	2.71%	0.55%		11.48%	-10.98%	-0.03%	-0.47%
1996	1	2	3	37,894	21.11%	55.05%	33.94%	9.88%	1.12%		5.81%	-6.77%	1.49%	-0.53%
1992	1	2	3	25,205	12.81%	46.50%	33.69%	19.09%	0.72%		3.49%	-3.76%	0.19%	0.08%
1988	2	1	-	13,440	7.77%	45.75%	53.52%	0.00%	0.73%		0.10%	0.14%	0.00%	-0.25%
1984	2	1	-	26,084	14.57%	42.57%	57.14%	0.00%	0.29%		2.02%	-1.63%	0.00%	-0.38%
1980	2	1	3	1	0.00%	45.66%	45.66%	7.62%	1.07%		4.64%	-5.09%	1.00%	-0.55%
1976	1	2	-	7,447	4.37%	51.38%	47.01%	0.00%	1.61%		1.31%	-1.00%	0.00%	-0.30%
1972	2	1	-	30,491	17.63%	40.58%	58.21%	0.00%	1.21%		3.06%	-2.46%	0.00%	-0.60%
1968	2	1	3	1,546	0.99%	43.77%	44.76%	11.46%	0.00%		1.05%	1.34%	-2.06%	-0.33%
1964	1	2	0	36,985	25.18%	62.46%	37.28%	0.00%	0.25%		1.41%	-1.19%	-0.30%	0.08%
1960	1	2	0	4,080	2.85%	51.31%	48.46%	0.00%	0.23%		1.60%	-1.09%	-0.42%	-0.09%

Vigo, IN:

Year	D	R	I	Margin	%Margin	Results for Vigo, IN				-	Difference from National
Year	D	R	I	Margin	%Margin	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Oth.	-	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Oth.
2004	2	1	-	2,562	6.45%	46.36%	52.81%	0.00%	0.83%		-1.90%	2.08%	0.00%	-0.18%
2000	2	1	5	451	1.24%	48.50%	49.74%	0.44%	1.32%		0.11%	1.88%	-2.30%	0.31%
1996	1	2	3	2,223	5.77%	46.69%	40.91%	11.71%	0.69%		-2.55%	0.20%	3.31%	-0.96%
1992	1	2	3	2,216	5.26%	42.81%	37.56%	19.31%	0.32%		-0.19%	0.11%	0.40%	-0.32%
1988	2	1	-	2,737	6.63%	46.48%	53.11%	0.00%	0.42%		0.83%	-0.27%	0.00%	-0.56%
1984	2	1	-	7,830	17.41%	40.98%	58.39%	0.00%	0.63%		0.42%	-0.39%	0.00%	-0.04%
1980	2	1	3	4,872	10.47%	41.40%	51.87%	5.34%	1.39%		0.38%	1.12%	-1.27%	-0.23%
1976	1	2	-	1,129	2.32%	50.78%	48.46%	0.00%	0.76%		0.70%	0.45%	0.00%	-1.15%
1972	2	1	-	10,832	22.13%	38.60%	60.73%	0.00%	0.67%		1.08%	0.05%	0.00%	-1.13%
1968	2	1	3	486	1.04%	43.56%	44.60%	11.54%	0.29%		0.84%	1.18%	-1.98%	-0.04%
1964	1	2	0	8,605	18.41%	59.05%	40.64%	0.00%	0.31%		-2.00%	2.17%	-0.30%	0.13%
1960	1	2	0	165	0.33%	50.03%	49.70%	0.00%	0.27%		0.32%	0.15%	-0.42%	-0.05%

Lincoln, MO:

Year	D	R	I	Margin	%Margin	Results for Lincoln, MO				-	Difference from National
Year	D	R	I	Margin	%Margin	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Oth.	-	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Oth.
2004	2	1	-	2,948	14.86%	42.18%	57.04%	0.00%	0.78%		-6.08%	6.31%	0.00%	-0.23%
2000	2	1	3	1,588	9.98%	43.74%	53.72%	1.41%	1.12%		-4.64%	5.86%	-1.33%	0.11%
1996	1	2	3	747	5.92%	44.75%	38.83%	14.92%	1.50%		-4.48%	-1.88%	6.52%	-0.15%
1992	1	2	3	1,735	13.59%	42.72%	29.13%	27.98%	0.17%		-0.29%	-8.32%	9.08%	-0.47%
1988	2	1	-	700	7.04%	46.34%	53.38%	0.00%	0.28%		0.69%	0.01%	0.00%	-0.70%
1984	2	1	-	2,847	30.20%	34.90%	65.10%	0.00%	0.00%		-5.66%	6.33%	0.00%	-0.67%
1980	2	1	3	853	9.14%	44.03%	53.17%	1.95%	0.86%		3.01%	2.42%	-4.66%	-0.77%
1976	1	2	-	892	10.96%	54.95%	43.99%	0.00%	1.06%		4.88%	-4.02%	0.00%	-0.86%
1972	2	1	-	2,343	29.62%	35.19%	64.81%	0.00%	0.00%		-2.33%	4.14%	0.00%	-1.80%
1968	2	1	3	43	0.56%	41.21%	41.78%	17.01%	0.00%		-1.51%	-1.64%	3.49%	-0.33%
1964	1	2	0	2,722	37.47%	68.74%	31.26%	0.00%	0.00%		7.68%	-7.21%	-0.30%	-0.18%
1960	1	2	0	322	4.43%	52.22%	47.78%	0.00%	0.00%		2.50%	-1.77%	-0.42%	-0.32%

Socorro, NM:

Year	D	R	I	Margin	%Margin	Results for Socorro, NM				-	Difference from National
Year	D	R	I	Margin	%Margin	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Oth.	-	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Oth.
2004	1	2	-	329	4.19%	51.27%	47.08%	0.00%	1.66%		3.00%	-3.65%	0.00%	0.64%
2000	1	2	3	121	1.77%	48.26%	46.48%	4.09%	1.17%		-0.13%	-1.38%	1.35%	0.16%
1996	1	2	3	1,059	16.64%	53.02%	36.38%	7.15%	3.46%		3.78%	-4.34%	-1.25%	1.80%
1992	1	2	3	722	11.86%	47.77%	35.91%	15.08%	1.25%		4.76%	-1.54%	-3.83%	0.61%
1988	2	1	-	154	2.48%	47.61%	50.09%	0.00%	2.30%		1.97%	-3.28%	0.00%	1.32%
1984	2	1	-	862	14.25%	42.01%	56.27%	0.00%	1.72%		1.46%	-2.51%	0.00%	1.05%
1980	2	1	3	459	8.47%	41.05%	49.52%	7.14%	2.29%		0.04%	-1.23%	0.53%	0.66%
1976	1	2	-	341	6.90%	52.76%	45.86%	0.00%	1.38%		2.69%	-2.15%	0.00%	-0.54%
1972	2	1	-	664	14.04%	42.16%	56.19%	0.00%	1.65%		4.63%	-4.48%	0.00%	-0.15%
1968	2	1	3	359	8.38%	43.68%	52.07%	4.04%	0.21%		0.96%	8.65%	-9.49%	-0.12%
1964	1	2	0	623	14.90%	57.33%	42.43%	0.00%	0.24%		-3.72%	3.96%	-0.30%	0.06%
1960	1	2	0	531	12.86%	56.37%	43.51%	0.00%	0.12%		6.65%	-6.04%	-0.42%	-0.19%

Eddy, NM:

Year	D	R	I	Margin	%Margin	Results for Eddy, NM				-	Difference from National
Year	D	R	I	Margin	%Margin	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Oth.	-	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Oth.
2004	2	1	-	6,388	31.51%	33.94%	65.46%	0.00%	0.60%		-14.32%	14.73%	0.00%	-0.41%
2000	2	1	3	3,227	18.14%	39.96%	58.10%	1.44%	0.49%		-8.42%	10.24%	-1.30%	-0.52%
1996	1	2	3	425	2.24%	47.16%	44.92%	6.83%	1.09%		-2.08%	4.21%	-1.57%	-0.56%
1992	1	2	3	96	0.53%	40.70%	40.18%	18.84%	0.27%		-2.30%	2.73%	-0.06%	-0.37%
1988	2	1	-	1,261	6.80%	46.10%	52.90%	0.00%	1.00%		0.45%	-0.47%	0.00%	0.02%
1984	2	1	-	4,446	22.96%	38.03%	60.99%	0.00%	0.99%		-2.53%	2.21%	0.00%	0.32%
1980	2	1	3	2,789	16.07%	40.49%	56.55%	1.88%	1.08%		-0.53%	5.80%	-4.73%	-0.54%
1976	1	2	-	1,375	8.14%	53.73%	45.59%	0.00%	0.68%		3.66%	-2.42%	0.00%	-1.23%
1972	2	1	-	4,881	31.81%	32.84%	64.65%	0.00%	2.51%		-4.68%	3.98%	0.00%	0.71%
1968	2	1	3	1,100	7.30%	40.44%	47.74%	11.09%	0.72%		-2.28%	4.32%	-2.43%	0.39%
1964	1	2	0	4,469	24.78%	62.20%	37.42%	0.00%	0.38%		1.15%	-1.05%	-0.30%	0.20%
1960	1	2	0	721	4.30%	51.89%	47.59%	0.00%	0.52%		2.17%	-1.96%	-0.42%	0.20%

Ferry, WA:

Year	D	R	I	Margin	%Margin	Results for Ferry, WA				-	Difference from National
Year	D	R	I	Margin	%Margin	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Oth.	-	Dem.	Rep.	Ind.	Oth.
2004	2	1	-	818	24.46%	35.92%	60.38%	0.00%	3.71%		-12.35%	9.65%	0.00%	2.70%
2000	2	1	3	964	31.73%	30.68%	62.41%	3.85%	3.06%		-17.71%	14.54%	1.12%	2.05%
1996	1	2	3	106	3.76%	42.49%	38.73%	14.48%	4.30%		-6.74%	-1.99%	6.09%	2.64%
1992	1	2	3	190	7.43%	37.66%	30.23%	29.80%	2.31%		-5.34%	-7.22%	10.89%	1.67%
1988	1	1	-	0	0.00%	48.10%	48.10%	0.00%	3.81%		2.45%	-5.28%	0.00%	2.83%
1984	2	1	-	297	13.44%	42.31%	55.75%	0.00%	1.95%		1.75%	-3.03%	0.00%	1.28%
1980	2	1	3	306	14.57%	38.19%	52.76%	6.05%	3.00%		-2.82%	2.01%	-0.56%	1.37%
1976	1	2	-	38	2.25%	48.11%	45.86%	0.00%	6.03%		-1.97%	-2.15%	0.00%	4.11%
1972	2	1	-	255	16.70%	36.67%	53.37%	0.00%	9.95%		-0.85%	-7.30%	0.00%	8.15%
1968	2	1	3	12	0.87%	42.97%	43.84%	13.12%	0.07%		0.25%	0.42%	-0.40%	-0.26%
1964	1	2	0	405	27.76%	63.81%	36.05%	0.00%	0.14%		2.76%	-2.42%	-0.30%	-0.04%
1960	1	2	0	298	19.28%	59.57%	40.30%	0.00%	0.13%		9.86%	-9.25%	-0.42%	-0.19%

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