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Obama's Ex-Girlfriend Details Their Relationship
(from: NY Times The Caucus @ May 2, 2012, 11:16 AM)

In an excerpt from a new biography, a woman once romantically involved with Barack Obama describes his warmth and his emotional distance.

The Chase for Mayor Bloomberg
(from: Political Wire @ May 2, 2012, 11:15 AM)

President Obama and Mitt Romney "are both determined to score the endorsement of Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg of New York, whose name is all but synonymous with Wall Street clout and nonpartisan politics," reports the New York Times. And with the campaign in full force, "their pursuit of the billionaire mayor is headed into overdrive, with both campaigns making the kind of conspicuous ring-kissing gestures that are reserved for their most sought-after political allies, even though the candidates publicly disagree with the mayor on a range of issues."

"Mr. Bloomberg, who has lent his reputation for common-sense government and his prowess for fund-raising to dozens of candidates from both parties over the past decade, feared that an endorsement in the 2008 race might have negative repercussions for the city he oversees. But as his mayoral term winds down, he has told advisers that he is willing to back a candidate this time around, touching off an intense competition for his support in the general election."

Meanwhile, the New York Daily News reports that on Tuesday, Romney, "who was in the city to mark the anniversary of Osama Bin Laden's death, had breakfast with Bloomberg at the mayor's philanthropic foundation's headquarters," while over the weekend, Bloomberg played golf "with other members of the President's administration, including Vice President Biden and Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta."

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/2
(from: Swing State Project @ May 2, 2012, 11:04 AM)

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest banner
Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. Sign up here.

9:16 AM PT: CA-52, San Diego Mayor: Now this is an interesting development. In the previous digest, we noted that Rep. Bob Filner, who is running for mayor of San Diego, endorsed port commissioner Scott Peters, who in turn is running against Republican Rep. Brian Bilbray. Peters' chief rival for the privilege of taking on Bilbray is former Assemblywoman Lori Saldana, whose campaign responded rather intemperately to the news of Filner's support for Peters, saying: "This is one failing campaign trying to prop up another failing campaign."

That earned Saldana a rebuke from labor leaders and others supporting Filner's campaign, but in a clever bit of jiu-jitsu, she's now turned around and endorsed Filner herself, in spite of some past history between them. That move boxed Peters in rather neatly, because he's actually refusing to return the favor for Filner, claiming he's "friends with three of the top candidates" and won't pick between them. This is a bit of a problem, though, because Filner is the only Democrat running for mayor?the other two that Peters is referring to are a Republican (Bonnie Dumanis) and a Republican-recently-turned-independent (Nathan Fletcher). So now Saldana gets to look like the good Democrat and team player, while Peters is seen as privileging his personal relationships?and a desire to appear tri-partisan?over supporting his own party.

9:28 AM PT: CA-15: Dem Rep. Pete Stark is at it again: In a Tuesday meeting with the San Francisco Chronicle editorial board, he wrongfully accused Debra Saunders, a Republican who writes the paper's "Token Conservative" blog, of having donated to the campaign of his primary opponent, Eric Swalwell. When asked to provide evidence for his claim, Stark paged through a pile of research materials (which he oddly said had been prepared by "a 16-year-old investigative reporter"?his own son) before admitting he had incorrectly named Saunders. He then tried to point to former Dublin City Councilwoman Claudia McCormick and claimed she worked for the Chronicle, but that was wrong, too. You can watch the entire awkward exchange below:

9:40 AM PT: Connecticut: Here's hoping! A bill that would allow election-day voter registration just passed the Connecticut state House, and while similar bills have advanced to various stages before, the situation looks better than it ever has before. The Senate also needs to sign off on the bill, but if they do, Gov. Dan Malloy has promised to sign it. (Prior efforts ran aground in large part due to the 16-year string of Republican governors the state endured until Malloy's election last cycle.)

9:52 AM PT: FL-22: This is extremely unusual: The DCCC is openly taking sides in the Democratic primary in Florida's redrawn 22nd District, on behalf of former West Palm Beach mayor Lois Frankel. Frankel's been running here for almost the entire cycle and has been a monster fundraiser; Jacobs only got in late, after the seat was made bluer and GOP Rep. Allen West fled northward to an easier district. But the rationale for Jacobs' candidacy was never clear, and Frankel continued to swamp her on the money front and in polling (an internal had her up 46-16).

So now the D-Trip is naming Frankel one of their "Majority Makers," a category they usually reserve for districts they expect to win handily, and DCCC chair Steve Israel is even doing a fundraiser for her. I do have to wonder why they're interceding, though. Are they concerned about Frankel having to waste resources on a primary that would be better off directed at Republican Adam Hasner in the general election? Or do they think that Jacobs is somehow less electable but worry that she might be able to pull an upset and win the nomination? It's just impossible to know.

10:18 AM PT: CT-Sen: Zillionaire wrestling impresario Linda McMahon is digging into her bottomless pockets to air her first ad of the election, a 60-second biographical spot in which she discusses her humble roots and tries to explain why they give her empathy for "people who are struggling." (McMahon, as you know, is attempting a second consecutive Senate bid, after her first attempt in 2010 ended in double-digit failure despite the year's strong Republican tide and the $50 million she spent on her own behalf.) You can watch the ad at the link.

10:32 AM PT: MI-03: Democrat Steve Pestka, who had earned a "0" from Planned Parenthood during the second of his two terms in the state legislature a decade ago, says that his views have evolved since that time and that while he considers himself "personally pro-life," he does not "believe in making abortion illegal." He also adds that he does not support de-funding Planned Parenthood, and cites his experience on the bench (he served as a family court judge after leaving office) as a reason for his changed stance. Pestka's been criticized for his legislative record on abortion by his primary opponent, Trevor Thomas. The two are vying to take on GOP freshman Justin Amash.

10:34 AM PT: IN-05: That was quick: Just a day after announcing their support for ex-Rep. David McIntosh in the GOP primary, the Campaign for Primary Accountability is up with $64K in mailers and web ads on his behalf.

10:36 AM PT: NC-Gov: Another poll finds Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton in the lead in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, this one from SurveyUSA. Dalton's at 32 while ex-Rep. Bob Etheridge is at 23, fairly similar to PPP's recent numbers. There's also polling on a whole bunch of other races at the link, including the lt. gov. primary and the anti-gay marriage/anti-civil unions Amendment 1, which unfortunately is passing by a 57-37 margin.

11:13 AM PT: WI-Gov: A brand-new Marquette Law School poll has GOP Gov. Scott Walker up just 48-47 over Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett among likely voters, though former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk trails by a wider margin, 49-43. Barrett also leads Falk 38-21 in the Democratic primary. We'll bring you a full post with our complete analysis shortly.

11:38 AM PT: VA-Sen: As Tom Jensen puts it: "Things that have gotten really boring by this point in the cycle: writing up the results of Virginia Senate polls." No kidding. Here are PPP's latest numbers (4/26-29, MoE: ±3.8%, 12/10-12 results):

Tim Kaine (D): 46 (47)
George Allen (R): 45 (42)
Undecided: 9 (11)
While it's unsurprising to see a VA-Sen poll showing the race deadlocked, it is, however, a bit notable that Kaine's five-point lead in December?one of the largest he's ever sported?has been whittled back down to just one point. It's all the more notable since Barack Obama's six-point margin over Mitt Romney in that earlier survey has now increased to eight. Tom points out, though, that Romney's favorables (a disastrous 38-52) are far worse than Allen's (38-38). But if Obama does prevail by eight percent in November, it's hard see Allen prevailing against that headwind, just as it's also hard to imagine Kaine only scoring 68-21 among black voters, as he does in this poll.

11:46 AM PT: MA-Sen: Democrat Elizabeth Warren has a new ad out, which mostly features President Obama praising her and the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau she was instrumental in creating. Warren speaks directly to the camera at the end, saying the bureau's creation shows "We can take on the big guys and win." You can watch the ad at the link.

12:41 PM PT (David Jarman): WI-Gov: As promised, here's our full write-up of the newest Marquette Univ. poll of the gubernatorial recall. While you'd think Dems would have the edge on the enthusiasm gap here, Barrett actually leads Walker by 1 among registered voters, while trailing Walker by 1 with the switch to likely voters.

12:44 PM PT (David Jarman): IN-Sen: Conventional wisdom at this point has pretty much written Richard Lugar off, but here's a new poll of the race that has him not looking quite dead yet. Take it with a grain of salt, though: it's taken on behalf of a PAC called Lunch Pail Republicans, who "announced its support for Lugar" at the same time as unveiling the poll. The poll, a one-day sample taken by Republican-linked robo-pollster Magellan, gives Lugar a 2-point lead over Richard Mourdock in the Senate primary, 44-42.

12:49 PM PT (David Jarman): NC-Gov: It's easy to forget that Pat McCrory faces a primary before being the GOP's gubernatorial nominee in North Carolina. Based on PPP's newest poll, McCrory may have forgotten that himself; he's at 66% with none of his Some Dude-level opponents above 4%. With the exception of Stephen Troxler, the Ag Commissioner and only GOP incumbent running statewide, it looks like every other downballot race is headed for a runoff in order to pick a Republican nominee. Unless you're a close student of North Carolina politics, PPP's writeup is a blur of names you've never heard of.

12:55 PM PT (David Jarman): NRCC: Those of you who were with us for the Swing State Project days may remember the fun we had with Tom Cole's constant woes as head of the NRCC during the 2008 cycle. As speculation turns to who'll head the NRCC next cycle (with Pete Sessions stepping down after having led it for two cycles), interestingly, Cole's name is near the top of the list. Apparently he's repaired his relationship with John Boehner (and distance from 2008 may have helped people realize that there wasn't much Cole could have done to stop that wave). Oregon's Greg Walden seems to be at the very top of the list, though.

1:00 PM PT (David Jarman): PA-12: Most people seemed caught off guard by Mark Critz's narrow victory over Jason Altmire in the Democratic primary last week, so here's some helpful background from Keystone Politics on just what organized labor did to juice turnout for Critz. It shows the sheer scope of the manpower involved in unions' on-the-ground and phonebanking efforts, but it also shows there's some upside to Citizens United, which allows unions, not just corporations, to get into the Super PAC business. And that's just what the AFL-CIO did here, with the creation of the Workers' Voice PAC, although it's one super PAC that's more oriented toward voter information gathering and GOTV than barnstorming the airwaves with attack ads.

1:06 PM PT (David Jarman): Nevada: I'm not sure how Nevada's registration statistics became some sort of swing state bellwether that pundits follow eagerly... maybe it's just because they get released so frequently and diligently... but the Democratic registration edge in the rapidly-bluening state is continuing to grow apace as we ramp up toward November. In the last month, Dems gained 3,915 new voters, while the GOP gained 2,277; the overall Dem advantage is about 36,000.

2:38 PM PT: FL-Sen: If Herman Cain endorses George LeMieux and Michele Bachmann endorses Connie Mack, does that sort of cancel each other out, or does it cause some kind of horrible matter/anti-matter explosion that breaches the warp core of the USS Wingnut? I guess we're due for a report from main engineering soon enough, because this odd turn of events did, in fact, just happen. What strikes me most, though, is that Mack wants Bachmann's backing. She's an anvil around his neck for the general election, and at best only helps him in the Republican primary. Mack's been under seige for a while, but does he actually need assistance in getting the GOP nod? That would be... (* raised eyebrow *) fascinating.

3:22 PM PT: NE-Sen: The Club for Growth, which is supporting Treasurer Don Stenberg in the GOP primary, is out with a new ad (their third of the race), attacking AG Jon Bruning for his various conservative apostasies, including (so they claim) supporting "a national government-run healthcare plan." Meanwhile, Sen. Jim DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund (another pro-Stenberg group) is also running a new TV spot that is about as pure pabulum as you can get, merely saying that Stenberg is "different" from other politicians. This piece of garbage is backed by a hefty $250K buy. You can watch both ads at their respective links.

3:28 PM PT: MO-Sen: Dem Sen. Claire McCaskill's new ad goes after "secret money" spent by "big oil and insurance companies" to attack her. McCaskill turns it around and attacks these special interests, saying they want to "end Medicare as we know it, cut student loans for college, and keep giving taxpayer subsidies to the big oil companies" and promises to fight them. You can watch the ad at the link.

3:36 PM PT: NY-18: A good get for attorney Sean Maloney as he seeks the Democratic nod in the 18th District: The Gay & Lesbian Victory Fund just announced that they're endorsing him.

3:40 PM PT: NJ-10: Progressive activist organization Democracy for America just endorsed Newark city councilman Ron Rice in his bid to fill the seat of the late Donald Payne. Rice is running in the Democratic primary against several other contenders, and in this solid blue seat, winning the Dem nomination is tantamount to winning the entire election.

3:56 PM PT: TX-Sen: Ted Cruz may have tons of conservative enthusiasm behind his bid for Senate, but that energy hasn't quite been matched by equal sums of money. So yeah, he's throwing half a mil behind two new ads on broadcast TV, but in a state the size of Texas, that's not really a whole lot. One of the spots (you can watch both at the link) tries to go on the offensive against frontrunner David Dewhurst, who's been busy attacking Cruz, basically calling him a closet liberal; the other (featuring the same set of actors each speaking in half-size, quick-cut sound-bites) touts Cruz's right-wing bonafides.

Personally, I think Dewhurst's ad (which came out a couple of weeks ago) is stronger: He goes after Cruz for representing a Chinese company found liable by a jury for stealing trade secrets from an American inventor. (In an amusing bit of "disclosure," I used to work at the same law firm Cruz did, albeit in a different office. I guess you could call us former colleagues!) This is a difficulty lawyers often have when they run for office: You can believe in the adversarial system all you want, but in the political arena, a shady client list can drag you down?so you can see why Cruz wants to change the topic of conversation.

Alabama Independent Candidate Petition Invalidated, Even Though Elections Officials Don?t Really Know How Many Signatures are Required
(from: Ballot Access News @ May 2, 2012, 10:56 AM)

Michael Noe has been kept off the Alabama ballot as an independent candidate for Madison County Commission, because elections officials say he doesn’t have enough valid signatures on his petition. See this story. The story also reveals that election officials are unable to know exactly how many signatures are required. The law says he needs 3% of the votes cast within the district for Governor in 2010. However, because redistricting has occurred since 2010, no one knows exactly how many votes were cast in the territory contained in the new district. The new district boundaries split precincts.

So, election officials simply divided the number of votes cast for Governor in 2010 in the entire county by the number of County Commission districts, and just assume Noe’s district had an “average” number of votes cast in 2010.

Questions Remain About Rubio's Credit Card Use
(from: Political Wire @ May 2, 2012, 10:46 AM)

Though Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) tried to put to rest the issue of his using a Florida Republican party credit card for personal expenses, National Journal isn't buying his claim that the matter was "totally resolved years ago.''

"Not so. Even putting aside the obvious -- why would such a savvy politician continually use a state party credit card for non-party business, requiring him to reimburse the credit card company after the bill had been paid? -- questions remain about the more than $100,00 in charges from Nov. 2006 to Nov. 2008."

Voter Turnout: Three Scenarios for 2012
(from: Washington Wire @ May 2, 2012, 10:42 AM)

Will strong turnout by minority voters lock up the November election for President Barack Obama? Or will the enthusiasm of the 2010 midterms carry over to boost white voter turnout, helping the Republican nominee?

William H. Frey, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, examines that question in a new paper.

In the 2008 election, minority turnout was heavy. Turnout by African Americans, Hispanics and Asian Americans was a few percentage points higher in each group than in 2004 (65% in 2008 vs. 60% in 2004; 50% vs. 47%; and 47% vs. 44% respective), while white turnout was one point less (66% vs. 67%.), the paper notes.

Also, the margin of votes for the Democrats among minority groups, already sizable in 2004, expanded greatly in 2008. That is, more minorities were voting, and those votes were much more heavily Democratic. For white voters, which lean toward Republicans, the margin narrowed, but was still in the Republican column. In short, white turnout slumped, and whites who votes voted less Republican than four years earlier.

With this as background, Mr. Frey poses the question:

As we approach November, minorities will account for a slightly larger share of eligible voters than in 2008. At the same time, white support for the Republican candidate may be greater than in 2008. Which dynamic will prevail?

He has three scenarios:
Scenario A assumes that the 2008 turnout and voting patterns again apply to 2012 voters. If that occurs, Obama wins with 29 states and 358 electoral votes. (270 electoral votes are needed to win.)

Scenario B applies 2004 turnout and voting patterns to the 2012 population. In this scenario, Mr. Romney beats Mr. Obama, with 286 electoral votes in 30 states.

Scenario C assumes strong partisan participation for both whites and minorities in 2012. This scenario is perhaps the most likely of the  three, says Mr. Frey. In this scenario, whites in each state are assumed to have more enthusiasm for the GOP nominee (likely Mitt Romney) in 2012 than in 2008 (John McCain) and as a result will mimic their 2004 patterns. Meanwhile, minorities are presumed to follow their strong 2008 turnout and voting margins. In this scenario, Mr. Obama wins, narrowly, with 292 electoral votes spread among 24 states.

Young Barack Obama in Love
(from: Political Wire @ May 2, 2012, 10:41 AM)

Vanity Fair excerpts Barack Obama: The Story by David Maraniss.

"He felt no attachment to Columbia or to the first jobs he landed after graduation. But it would be a misreading to say that he was tamping down his ambitions during that period. Just the opposite, in fact. If anything, his sense of destiny deepened. He was conducting an intense debate with himself over his past, pres­ent, and future, an internal struggle that he shared with only a few close friends, including his girlfriends, Alex McNear and Genevieve Cook, who kept a lasting rec­ord, one in letters, the other in her journal."

Sixth Circuit Sets Hearing Date in Ohio Ballot Access Case
(from: Ballot Access News @ May 2, 2012, 10:21 AM)

On July 24, the Sixth Circuit will hear Libertarian Party of Ohio v Husted, the case in which the Libertarian Party had won injunctive relief against Ohio’s February 2012 petition deadline for newly-qualifying parties.

The Secretary of State did not appeal, but the Ohio legislature then intervened in the case so that it could appeal. The hearing will be at 1:30 p.m. in Cincinnati. The appeal is peculiar, because after the Ohio Libertarian Party won injunctive relief against the February 2012 deadline, the deadline reverted back to November 2011. One wonders why the legislature is bothering to appeal an injunction when the law at issue doesn’t even exist any longer.

In 2006 the Sixth Circuit had ruled that a deadline of November of the year before the election is unconstitutional. The current Ohio law still has that deadline.

Huntsman Pledges to Campaign for Romney
(from: Political Wire @ May 2, 2012, 10:15 AM)

Jon Huntsman told the Deseret News that he's "ready to hit the campaign trail for his one-time rival for the GOP presidential nomination, Mitt Romney."

Said Huntsman: "I see him as the best of the options we have available."

He also discounted talk of bad blood between him and Romney: "I think it's the media that's created more drama than there is. The fact of the matter is, I don't know Gov. Romney well."

Texas Supreme Court Asks for Response in El Paso Recall Lawsuit
(from: Ballot Access News @ May 2, 2012, 10:12 AM)

On April 27, the Texas Supreme Court asked for a response from El Paso Mayor John F. Cook, in the case known as Tom Brown Ministries v Cook, 12-0224. The issue is whether a recall petition should be invalidated, even though it had enough valid signatures, because the church that helped collect the signatures is incorporated. The State Appeals Court had invalidated the petition based on the church’s status as a corporation. The Mayor’s response is due May 29.

The issues in this case are closely related to the same issues from 2010, when the Green Party petition was invalidated by a lower Texas state court because it was believed that the money donated to the party for its petition drive originated from a corporation. The Texas Supreme Court, in the Green Party case, put the party back on the ballot. No further proceedings were held in that case because, after the election was over, the Texas Democratic Party, which had originally filed the challenge to the Green Party petition, did not pursue the case.

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