PredictionsEndorse2009 Gubernatorial Election Polls - NJ ResultsPolls
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Source: Monmouth University (url)

CandidatePolitical PartyPollGraphPoll Details
RChristieRepublican47%piePoll Date: 2009-09-10
DCorzine*Democratic39%Number Polled: 752
IDaggettIndependent for NJ5%Margin of Error: 4%
-Undecided-9%Voter Type: Registered

  * = Incumbent

Christie up 8

 By: hashemite (G-CA) - 2009-09-13 @ 11:55:03

A note on results for all Registered Voters versus Likely Voters:

The poll results among all registered voters show the “race” as basically even compared to what is a clear lead for Christie among likely voters. This large difference between the preferences of likely and registered voters was also seen in the August poll. The Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll is the only poll of record currently providing results for both voting groups.

Murray described the findings this way: “We know that voters who are less likely to go to the polls tend to besomewhat more Democratic in their leanings. However, we rarely see more than a few points difference in the ballot test results for all registered voters compared with just likely voters. The fact that such a notable discrepancy has shown up in two consecutive polls indicates that there is a decided lack of enthusiasm for the incumbent among the Garden State electorate. While we acknowledge that most of these ‘unlikely’ voters will never cast a ballot in this race, if the Corzine team can bump up turnout on Election Day by just a few percentage points, their chances of victory greatly increase.

“At this point, the likely voter result is our best estimate of where the dynamics of this race stand at this time. We provide the registered voter results in the interest of furthering our understanding of the entire New Jersey electorate’s concerns and motivations. The bottom line is that turnout always matters. It just may matter more in this election than usual.”

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