Friday, March 21, 2008
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In Minnesota, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Barack Obama leading John McCain 47% to 43%. The election poll also shows McCain essentially even with Hillary Clinton, leading her by a statistically insignificant 47% to 46%.

Obama leads McCain by eight points among women but trails by a single point among men. Clinton leads McCain by twelve among women but trails by seventeen among men.

Obama leads McCain by fourteen points among unaffiliated voters while McCain leads Clinton by nine among those same voters.

McCain is viewed favorably by 58% of Minnesota voters. Fifty-seven percent (57%) say the same about Obama while 50% have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Compared to a month ago, Obama’s favorables are down seven, McCain’s ratings have fallen four points, and Clinton is down one.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Minnesota voters view the economy as the top voting issue for Election 2008. Just 14% now believe the economy is in good or excellent shape while 47% rate the U.S. economy today as poor. Just 6% say it is getting better while 76% say it is getting worse. Nationally, consumer and investor confidence has fallen to the lowest level of the past seven years.

Twenty percent (20%) believe the War in Iraq is the highest priority. On the fifth anniversary of the War in Iraq, the candidates all had something to say on the topic but the politics of the issue have become much more complicated. Fifty percent (50%) of Minnesota voters believe the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror while 21% believe the terrorists are winning. Thirty-eight percent (38%) expect things to get better in Iraq over the next six months while 30% expect the situation to get worse. Those figures are close to the national average.

Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Minnesota voters believe that American society is generally fair and decent. Just 19% believe it is unfair and discriminatory.

Just 35% believe that George W. Bush is doing a good or excellent job as President. Fifty percent (50%) say he is doing a poor job.

Minnesota Senator Norm Coleman is one of several endangered incumbents in Election 2008. Minnesota’s Senate race looks to be very competitive.

A month ago, McCain led Clinton by five points in Minnesota but trailed Obama by fifteen. Over the past month, McCain has gained ground in Ohio, Michigan, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. Both Democrats continue to lead in New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut and California (see summary of recent state general election polling). A recent Rasmussen Reports analysis looks at one of the reasons for McCain’s recent gains--the impact of Pastor Wright and Obama’s speech.

With release of this poll, Minnesota shifts from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. This Calculator aggregates data from a variety of sources to provide a comprehensive assessment of the state-by-state race for the White House. Data inputs include the latest Rasmussen Reports poll in a state, an average of the latest polling from other firms, Rasmussen Markets data, Intrade market data, the aggregated rankings of selected analysts, the state’s voting history, and national party identification trends.