President of the United States in Florida today, 10/17/08, absentee balloting underway and early voting about to begin, Republican John McCain edges Democrat Barack Obama 49% to 47%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV Tampa, WFOR-TV Miami, WKRG-TV Mobile-Pensacola, and WFTX-TV Cape Coral. The outcome is within the survey's margin of sampling error. Both candidates have an excellent chance to carry the state.
Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll 3 weeks ago, almost nothing has changed in the Florida data, at a time when the world has changed profoundly. Then, the Dow Jones was at 11,143. Today: 20% lower. Banks have failed, insurance companies have been nationalized. But smooth sailing on the Florida poll tracking graphs. True: men have swung 9 points to McCain since SurveyUSA's last poll; women have swung an offsetting 8 points to Obama. But most other demographic groups in Florida are stable. Voters younger than Obama: stable. Voters older than McCain: stable. Whites: stable. Hispanics: stable. Moderates: stable. Independents: stable. More-educated voters: stable. Less-educated voters: stable. Pro-life voters: stable. Pro-choice voters: stable.

There is slight movement to McCain in Southeast Florida, which includes Miami and Fort Lauderdale. There is offsetting movement to Obama in Central Florida, which includes Orlando, and in Southwest Florida, which includes Tampa. Unique to Florida, and unlike other states that SurveyUSA is polling: those in Florida who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted disproportionately back McCain. The sample size is small, so caution is warranted, but unlike SurveyUSA findings in Ohio, New Mexico, Georgia, Iowa, and North Carolina, where early voters disproportionately favor Obama, in Florida, McCain leads by 8 among those who have already voted, and is tied among those who have not yet cast a ballot but who are determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to do so.

In 4 SurveyUSA tracking polls going back to August, Obama has never led in Florida. 14 separate research firms are polling in Florida. The last 10 surveys released by other pollsters all show Barack Obama ahead by 1 to 8 percentage points.


Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 675 Florida adults 10/16/08. All interviews were conducted after the 3rd and final presidential debate. Of the adults, 631 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 553 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be certain to vote on or before election day. Absentee voting has already begun. Early voting begins 10/20/08. Florida has 27 Electoral College votes. George Bush carried Florida by 5 points in 2004 and by one one-hundredth of a point in 2000.