Raleigh, N.C. – Benefiting from increased voter concern over the economy and the
declining popularity of Sarah Palin, Barack Obama has taken a 49-46 lead over John
McCain in Florida. A PPP survey conducted three weeks ago, right after the Republican
convention, showed McCain leading by five points in the state.
64% of poll respondents named the economy as their top issue, and within that group
Obama holds a 55-40 lead. By comparison when PPP asked the same issues question in a
January Florida survey just 26% said their biggest concern was the economy, and
McCain led Obama by six points.
Another factor driving movement in Obama’s direction in Florida is Sarah Palin’s rapidly
declining standing with voters in the state. Right after the convention 45% said they were
more likely to vote for McCain because of her spot on the ticket, compared to 34% who
said they were less likely to do so. Now the number saying Palin makes them more likely
to support McCain has gone down to 40%, while the percentage of those saying they are
less likely to do so has ticked up to 41%.
“The events of the past few weeks are pushing independents into Barack Obama’s camp,”
said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Where McCain and Obama
were tied with those voters three weeks ago, Obama now has an eight point advantage.
John McCain badly needs the campaign to ‘switch topics’ if he’s going to reverse the
strong movement in Obama’s direction.”
Also important to Obama’s movement in Florida is a much improved performance with
white voters in the state. Where he had a 27 point deficit with them in early September, it
is now down to just 11 points.
PPP released a survey yesterday showing Barack Obama with a slight lead in North
Carolina.
PPP surveyed 941 likely voters on September 27th and 28th. The survey’s margin of
error is +/-3.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may
introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.