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Source: Survey USA (url)

CandidatePolitical PartyPollGraphPoll Details
RMcCainRepublican52%piePoll Date: 2008-11-02
DObamaDemocratic45%Number Polled: 683
-Other-2%Margin of Error: 4%
-Undecided-2%Voter Type: Likely

McCain +7

 By: Miamiu1027 (D-NY) - 2008-11-03 @ 12:55:15

At the Wire, McCain Appears to Hold Georgia; Chambliss Appears to Hold Senate Seat for GOP ... Unless...: 48 hours till votes are counted in Georgia, John McCain appears to have enough
white votes to hold onto Georgia's 15 electoral votes, according to SurveyUSA polling for WXIA-TV Atlanta and WMAZ-TV Macon. McCain leads 3:1 among whites and polls above 50% among
both men and women and voters older than 35. Obama leads 3:2 in greater Atlanta, but that is offset by McCain's 2:1 advantage in Northwest GA and 4:3 advantage in Southeast GA. For Obama
to win Georgia, he needs voters younger than 35 to carry him by more than SurveyUSA polling reflects and black voters to turn out in larger numbers than here forecast. 3 of 4 SurveyUSA tracking
polls show black turnout in Georgia to be 26%. But: Publicly available data show that of those who have already voted in Georgia, 35% are black. If, when same-day voters and early voters are
combined, the black turnout is not 26% as SurveyUSA forecasts, but instead 30%, then the outcome of the election changes to be: McCain 49%, Obama 48%. See SurveyUSA's exclusive
SurveyDNA analysis for how the outcome of the Presidential contest changes with 30% black turnout. In the US Senate race, SurveyUSA's final 3 tracking polls showed Republican incumbent
Saxby Chambliss ahead by 2 points, 3 points and today 4 points over Democratic challenger Jim Martin. Martin has a narrow advantage among those who have already voted. Chambliss has a
larger, offsetting advantage among those who have not yet voted but who promise to. The contest is inside of the margin of sampling error. If black turnout is 30%, instead of the 26% shown here,
the outcome changes to be: Martin 47%, Chambliss 46%. See SurveyUSA's exclusive SurveyDNA analysis for how the outcome of the Senate race changes with 30% black turnout. Filtering: 800
Georgia adults were interviewed 10/30/08 through 11/02/08. Of them, 740 were registered to vote. 683 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to vote on or before
election day.

View All Georgia Polls - View This Poll for Clinton vs. McCain

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