Red State Nail-biter:

McCain and Obama in 47% - 47 % Dead Heat Among Hoosier Voters



Presidential Vote Intention in Indiana

October 27-30, 2008



John McCain
������ 47 %

Barack Obama
������ 47 %

Bob Barr
������� 2 %

Other
������� 1 %

Undecided
������� 3 %




Indiana�s presidential race is extremely close according to a poll of 900 registered and likely voters done by SurveyUSA for the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics.� For the first time in four decades, a Democrat has a chance of winning Indiana�s Electoral College votes.� Forty-seven percent of Hoosiers support each candidates when asked whom they would vote for �if the election were held today� between October 27 and October 30.� Two percent intend to support Libertarian Bob Barr, 3% remain undecided, and less than 1% support any other candidate.�



Region of State and Vote Intention




Northern
Central
Southern

McCain
46 %
48 %
47 %

Obama
48 %
47 %
45 %

% of sample
32 %
33 %
34 %




The presidential race is tight (within the margin of error) everywhere in Indiana.� Obama does slightly better in the northern portion of the state and McCain in southern Indiana.



�

Both McCain and Obama have mobilized their partisan bases.� Both have double-digit defections by their own weak partisans, but receive overwhelming support from strong partisans and independents leaning toward their party.� To McCain�s benefit, there are slightly more Republicans in our sample (44%) than Democrats (42%).� However, Obama holds a greater than the margin-of-error lead among Hoosier self-described independents 44% to 37%.






Presidential Support by Timing of Vote Decision





Knew All Along
After Party Conventions
After Wall St. Bailout
After Debates
Past Few Days

McCain
52 %
47 %
--
33 %
60 %

Obama
47 %
51 %
--
65 %
30 %

% of sample
56 %
21 %
� 4 %
� 8 %
� 7 %




Most Hoosiers long-ago decided who they would support for president.� However, some distinctive patterns of vote decision timing appear for each candidate.� McCain�s support is greater among those who knew all along how they would vote.� Relative to McCain, Obama received more support from those who decided after the party conventions but before the bailout and debates.� He also received two-thirds of those deciding after the debates but before the past few days.� Twice as many of those deciding in the past few days support McCain over Obama, though there are only fifteen percent of Hoosiers who decided after the debates and in the past few days.�



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Presidential Support Among Early Voters & People Yet to Vote




Already Voted
Yet to Vote

��� McCain
32 %
����� 50 %

��� Obama
64 %
����� 43 %

��� % of sample
17 %
����� 83 %




Barack Obama�s early voting efforts have paid off in Indiana.� Seventeen percent of Hoosiers have already voted according to our survey and Barack Obama is doubling up John McCain among these voters.� Of those who have yet to vote, McCain leads 50% to 43%.�



Vote Preference by Issue Next President Should Focus On




Will Vote for McCain
Will Vote for Obama
% of Sample

Most Salient Issue




Economy
43 %
51 %
58 %

Environment
22 %
71 %
� 3 %

Health Care
34 %
58 %
� 8 %

Iraq
26 %
67 %
� 5 %

Terrorism
86 %
� 9� %
10 %

Social Security
46 %
42 %
� 3 %

Education
33 %
61 %
� 4 %

Immigration
76 %
13 %
� 5 %




By an overwhelming margin, the most important issue to Indiana voters is the state of the economy.� Fifty-six percent of Hoosiers rank the economy as the issue on which the next president should focus most.� Of these voters, Barack Obama is receiving 51% support compared to 43% support for John McCain.� John McCain dominates among those who see terrorism (86% to 9%) or immigration (76% to 13%) as the most important issues.� Barack Obama does well on those issues normally owned by Democrats: the environment (71% to 22%), health care (58% to 34%), and education (61% to 33%).� Interestingly, Indiana voters do not follow conventional wisdom on two issues.� John McCain receives more support (46% to 42%) among those who see Social Security as the most important issue, while Barack Obama has more supporters (67% to 26%) of those who view Iraq as the most salient issue.� However no issue rivals the salience of the economy.





Presidential Support by Gender


�� Male
�� Female

McCain
�� 49 %
����� 45 %

Obama
�� 45 %
����� 49 %




A slight gender gap exists among Hoosiers concerning whom they will support for president.� 49% of Indiana men support McCain compared to 45% who would vote for Obama.� These numbers are reversed for women.� Women made up 53% of the sample.




Presidential Support by Age



18-34
35-49
50-64
65 +

McCain
41 %
52 %
45 %
48 %

Obama
53 %
43 %
50 %
43 %

% of sample
24 %
31 %
27 %
18 %




Interestingly, presidential support by age is not simply a story of younger Hoosiers preferring Obama and older Hoosiers preferring McCain.� As has been the case throughout his presidential run, Barack Obama enjoys strong support from the youngest voting group.� Fifty-three percent of 18 to 35 year old Hoosiers intend to vote for Obama, but Obama also receives a majority of the support among those from age fifty to sixty-four.� McCain receives nearly the same advantage (52% to 43%) of 35 to 49 year olds that Obama receives from 18 to 34 year olds.� The 35 to 49 year old cohort makes up nearly a third of the sample.� McCain leads by five percent among respondents 65 years old and older.� �



Presidential Support by Race


White
Black

McCain
51 %
11 %

Obama
43 %
84 %

% of sample
88 %
8� %




A majority of white Hoosiers support John McCain, while an enormous majority of African-American Hoosiers will vote for Barack Obama.� McCain leads by eight percentage points among whites 51% to 43%.� Obama is receiving 84% of African-American support compared to McCain�s 11%.� The percentage of African-Americans in this sample is smaller than the percentage of African-Americans in Indiana�s population.� Therefore, the sample may undercount the relative influence of African-Americans in the Indiana electorate.�








Presidential Support by Marital Status





Single
Married
Divorced
Widowed

McCain
38 %
54 %
33 %
37 %

Obama
59 %
40 %
58 %
59 %

% of sample
14 %
67 %
9 %
6 %




Married Hoosiers are more likely to vote for John McCain than Barack Obama by 14 percentage points.� Barack Obama has the majority of support among single and divorced Indiana voters.� Widowed Hoosiers support Obama over McCain by 22 points.�



Education and Presidential Vote Intention




Graduate

Professional
College

Graduate
Some

College
High School Graduate
Not High School Grad

McCain
51 %
51 %
47 %
43 %
--

Obama
43 %
44 %
47 %
51 %
--

% of sample
23 %
23 %
33 %
19 %
�� 3 %




John McCain will receive the votes of those with a college education and higher, whereas Hoosiers with a high school education will vote more often for Barack Obama.� Obama had received much higher relative support among highly educated Hoosiers in the Indiana Primary Election.





Presidential Vote Intention by Frequency of Church Attendance




Every

Week
Almost Weekly
Once/ Twice per Month
A Few Times Yearly
Almost

Never

McCain
59 %
48 %
39 %
43 %
34 %

Obama
34 %
48 %
55 %
52 %
62 %

% of sample
41 %
13 %
� 8 %
16 %
19 %




A majority of Hoosiers tend to attend church weekly or almost weekly.� Among the most religious Indiana voters, John McCain enjoys a yawning advantage over Barack Obama (59% to 34%).� Obama and McCain are tied (48% apiece) among those who attend church almost weekly.� Like recent patterns of religiosity and voting behavior for Republican and Democratic voting behavior, as voters become more secular, they are more likely to support Obama.�