Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama has taken a slim lead for the first time in a PPP Missouri
poll. He has 48% to 46% for John McCain.
McCain had led by ten points in PPP’s most recent previous survey of the state,
conducted in late August. The economy is likely driving Obama’s strides. 63% of
Missouri voters list it as their top concern in the election, and among those folks Obama
has a 57-38 advantage.
The movement toward Obama has been particularly strong among white voters and
Democratic voters. In August he was receiving just 78% of the vote from folks within
his own party. He is now up to 89%. He’s also halved what was a 56-35 lead for
McCain with whites to just a 52-42 advantage.
“Missouri, along with North Carolina and Indiana, is a state that has moved into swing
state status because of the unrest about the economy,” said Dean Debnam, President of
Public Policy Polling. “Of course the reality is that if those three are swing states, Barack
Obama’s already won the election based on victories in places like Virginia and
Colorado. Missouri would be icing on the cake more than anything else.”
Obama’s gains may also be helping to fuel Democrats up and down the ticket to greater
success. Jay Nixon leads Kenny Hulshof for Governor 52-39, up from 48-42 in PPP’s
previous poll. Other statewide Democratic candidates leading their races by various
margins include Robin Carnahan, Chris Koster, and Clint Zweifel. Even the race for
Lieutenant Governor is approaching competitive status, with Peter Kinder leading
challenger Sam Page just 47-44.
PPP surveyed 1,009 likely voters on October 11th and 12th. The survey’s margin of error
is +/-3.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce
additional error that is more difficult to quantify.