Durham – As Republican John McCain prepares to return New Hampshire tonight and hold a town hall meeting in Rochester tomorrow, a new local poll shows him in a statistical dead heat with Democrat Barack Obama.

New Hampshire, living up to its billing as a toss-up state, favors Obama over McCain, 46 to 43 percent. The University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll has a margin of error of 4.5 percent, making it a dead heat, according to poll director Andrew Smith.

Smith’s team polled 475 likely Granite State voters July 11 through 20.

It is the first UNH presidential poll since early May, when Hillary Clinton was still in the Democratic race. At that time, McCain was ahead of Obama, 49 to 43 percent.

The latest poll also shows that although Granite Staters have seen much of the candidates for more than a year, collectively, they remain very much in flux.

The poll shows that only 51 percent of those polled say they have definitely decided who they will vote for in November, while 21 percent are leaning toward one candidate or another and 28 percent said they are truly undecided.

Among independents, 45 percent are still trying to decide, according to Smith, while 58 percent of Democrats and 58 percent of Republicans have made final decisions.

McCain will arrive in New Hampshire tonight and will hold several private meetings tomorrow morning before heading to the Rochester Opera House for a town hall meeting. Since becoming the presumptive GOP nominee, McCain held town hall meeting in Exeter in mid-March and in Nashua in mid-June.

His campaign has said his frequent visits show that McCain believes New Hampshire, even with only four electoral votes, is critical to him winning the White House.

Obama was in New Hampshire last month with Clinton at a well-publicized event in the tiny town of Unity. It was his first post-presidential primary visit.

The poll shows that Obama is leading among self-identified independents, 42 to 31 percent, while 78 percent of Republicans say they will vote for McCain and 82 percent of Democrats say they will vote for Obama. Twelve percent of Democrats say they will vote for McCain and 12 percent of Republicans say they will vote for Obama.

The candidates have similar favorable-unfavorable ratings, with 56 percent of those polled reacting favorably, and 31 percent unfavorably, to Obama; and 55 percent reacting favorably, and 32 percent unfavorably, to McCain.

Among independents, Obama’s favorable/unfavorable rating is 53 to 29 percent and McCain’s is 51 to 31 percent.

The poll also shows:

-- Obama leading McCain 47 to 40 percent in the 1st Congressional District and the candidates tied at 45 percent in the 2nd District.

-- McCain leading Obama 53 to 35 percent among those without a college degree and Obama leading McCain, 53 to 37 percent among those with a graduate degrees.

-- McCain leading Obama 57 to 33 percent among those 65 years of age or older and Obama leading 57 to 38 percent among those 18 to 34 years old.

-- Obama leading in the North Country, 46 to 42 percent; in the Connecticut Valley, 47 to 43 percent; in the Seacoast, 55 to 33 percent; and in the Manchester area, 48 to 35 percent.

-- McCain leading on southern towns bordering Massachusetts, 51 to 40 percent.

The poll shows that 41 percent of Granite Staters believe jobs and the economy is the most important campaign issue. Gasoline prices and health care tied for second with 13 percent each, while the war in Iraq and the war on terrorism were each named the top issue by 8 percent.

As McCain comes to the state, his campaign today began airing a new television ad in New Hampshire and 10 other swing states and on national cable television networks.

The ad asks, “Who can you thank for rising prices at the pump?” and answers with a chant of “Obama.”

An announcer then says, “One man knows we must now drill more in America and rescue our family budgets. Don’t hope for more energy, vote for it. McCain.”

Democrats were planning to hold a news conference in Concord this afternoon criticizing McCain votes on the federal Low-Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP) program.