In what could be a huge Democratic landslide in New Jersey, Sen. Barack Obama tops Republican Sen. John McCain 59 - 36 percent while incumbent Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg leads Republican challenger Dick Zimmer 55 - 33 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.


This compares to a 48 - 45 percent Sen. Obama lead in a September 16 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Sen. Lautenberg held a 48 - 39 percent likely voter lead September 17.


In this latest survey, white voters back Obama 50 - 44 percent, reversing a 56 - 37 percent McCain lead with whites September 16. The Democrat gets 97 percent of black voters, with 3 percent undecided. Men back Obama 56 - 39 percent, reversing a 53 - 40 percent McCain lead, while women stay with Obama 62 - 32 percent, compared to 54 - 38 percent.


Independent voters shift from 47 - 43 percent for McCain to 55 - 38 percent for Obama.


The Democrat leads 69 - 27 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 60 - 35 percent among voters 35 to 54 and 52 - 41 percent among voters over 55 years old.


"The nation's economic crisis has turned New Jersey dark blue, virtually assuring a Democratic sweep with Sen. Barack Obama carrying the state and Sen. Frank Lautenberg winning re-election," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.


"Barring a major development in world affairs, or in the fortunes of Sen. John McCain and former U.S. Rep. Dick Zimmer, Nov. 4 is shaping up as a big night for New Jersey Democrats."


New Jersey likely voters say 58 - 30 percent that Obama better understands the economy.


Obama gets a 65 - 27 percent favorability, compared to a 47 - 47 percent split for McCain. Democratic running mate, Sen. Joe Biden, gets a 61 - 22 percent favorability while Republican running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin, gets a negative 33 - 50 percent.


"The poll shows not only Democratic strength, but Republican weakness. Only 30 percent say John McCain is the best candidate to handle the economy, and Sarah Palin's favorability rating is in negative territory," Richards added.


Sen. Lautenberg wins 81 - 9 percent among Democrats and 49 - 36 percent among independent voters while Republicans back Zimmer 79 - 15 percent.


Lautenberg gets a 47 - 25 percent favorability while 63 percent of voters say they don't know enough about Zimmer to form an opinion.


"You can't win if the voters don't know who you are - unless they really dislike your opponent. In this case, voters like Lautenberg well enough while two-thirds know very little about Zimmer," Richards said.


New Jersey voters split on one component of Gov. Jon Corzine's economic stimulus package, with 44 percent supporting and 42 percent opposed to investing $250 million from state pension funds in community banks to encourage small business loans. Democrats support the measure 53 - 31 percent while Republicans oppose it 55 - 37 percent and independent voters turn thumbs down 46 - 39 percent.


Voters support 55 - 31 percent another stimulus measure, using $45 million from the State Housing & Mortgage Finance Agency to help homeowners avoid foreclosure. The measure gets 69 - 15 percent support from Democrats and 51 - 35 percent support from independent voters, while Republicans oppose it 52 - 35 percent.


"Gov. John Corzine's emergency stimulus package gets mixed reaction from the voters, which is understandable for something so complicated," Richards said. "The good news for the Governor is that it did not get immediate voter rejection - the reaction that greeted his plan to double tolls on the Turnpike and Garden State Parkway to solve the state's financial problems."


From October 16 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,184 New Jersey likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.


The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feeds - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.


1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".