Question:
Questions Asked
If the presidential election were being held today, for whom would you vote -- the Republican Party ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Democratic Party ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, or a candidate from another party? Would you describe yourself as very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic or not enthusiastic about the candidacy of (Barack Obama) (John McCain)?
IF OTHER CANDIDATE: Which of four other presidential candidates on the California ballot would you vote for – Bob Barr, Libertarian party; Ralph Nader, Peace and Freedom Party; Alan Keyes, American Independent Party; or Cynthia McKinney, Green Party?

Table 1
Trend of voter preferences pairing Obama-Biden against McCain-Palin for President (among likely voters in California)
Obama –Biden
McCain -Palin
Other
No opinion
September 2008
52%
36
3*
9
July 2008
54%
30
4
12
May 2008
52%
35
5
8
January 2008
47%
40
--
13
December 2007
50%
36
--
14
October 2007
50%
33
--
17
August 2007
49%
36
--
15
March 2007
51%
39
--
10
Note: Measures prior to September 2008 posed only the names of the presidential candidates
* Preferences for other candidates in September 2008 include: Barr 1%, Nader 1% and 1% unspecified others.

Poll Demographics

About this Poll
Sample Details
The findings in this report are based on a random sample survey of 830 likely voters in California. Interviewing was conducted by telephone in English and Spanish between the period September 5-14, 2008. Up to six attempts were made to reach and interview each randomly selected voter on different days and times of day during the interviewing period. In order to cover a broad range of issues and still minimize voter fatigue, the overall voter sample was divided into two random subsamples on some of the questions.
The sample was developed from telephone listings of individual voters selected at random from a statewide list of registered voters in California. Once a voter’s name and telephone number has been selected, interviews are attempted only with the specified voter. Interviews can be conducted on either the voter’s landline or cell phone, depending on the source of the telephone listing from the voter file. After the completion of interviewing, the results are weighted slightly to Field Poll estimates of the demographic and regional characteristics of the state’s registered voter population.
Sampling error estimates applicable to any probability-based survey depends on the sample size. The maximum sampling error for results based on the overall sample of 830 likely voters is +/- 3.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, while findings from the random subsamples have a maximum sampling error of +/- 5.0 percentage points. The maximum sampling error is based on percentages in the middle of the sampling distribution (percentages around 50%). Percentages at either end of the distribution (percentages around 10% or around 90%) have a smaller margin of error. While there are other potential sources of error in surveys besides sampling error, the overall design and execution of the survey minimized the potential for these other sources of error. The maximum sampling error will be larger for analyses based on subgroups of the overall sample.