Question:
(IF HAVE NOT ALREADY VOTED, ASK:) I am going to read the names of some Republicans who are running for the Republican presidential nomination this year. For each, please tell me whether there would be a good chance, some chance or no chance that you would vote for that person in California’s presidential primary election. You may name as many or as few persons as you like as people you would be inclined to vote for. (NAMES AND TITLES OF CANDIDATES READ IN RANDOM ORDER) I am going to read back the names of the candidates you said you would have at least some chance of voting for. (NAMES OF CANDIDATES READ BACK) Of these persons, who would be your first choice if the California Republican primary election for President were being held today? (IF FIRST CHOICE GIVEN) Who would be your second choice?
(IF ALREADY VOTED, ASK:) For whom did you vote in the Republican presidential primary election? (NAMES READ IN RANDOM ORDER)

Mid-January 2008
December2007
October2007
August 2007
March 2007
John McCain
22%
12%
12%
9%
24%
Mitt Romney
18
15
13
17
7
Rudy Giuliani
11
25
25
35
37
Mike Huckabee
11
17
4
1
3
Fred Thompson
9
6
12
13
8
Ron Paul
7
3
4
1
1
Other
1
4
3
4
5
Undecided
21
18
22
20
15
Note: The March 2007 survey included the names of Tommy Thompson Newt Gingrich and Chuck Hagel For comparative purposes voters favoring these candidates were allocated to their second choice preferences.

Poll Demographics

About this Poll
Sample Details
The findings in this report are based on a random sample survey of 1,033 registered voters in California, including 377 voters deemed likely to vote in the Republican primary election. The overall sample was divided into two random subsamples on some of the survey questions.
Interviewing was conducted by telephone in English and Spanish January 14-20, 2008. Up to six attempts were made to reach and interview each randomly selected voter on different days and times of day during the interviewing period.
The sample was developed from telephone listings of individual voters selected at random from a statewide list of registered voters in California. For this survey, the sample of registered Republicans was augmented to increase the number of interviews conducted among likely GOP voters in the February 5th primary. Once a voter’s name and telephone number has been selected, interviews are attempted only with the specified voter. Interviews can be conducted on either the voter’s landline or cell phone, depending on the source of the telephone listing from the voter file. After the completion of interviewing, the overall sample was weighted to Field Poll estimates of the demographic and regional characteristics of the state’s registered voter population.
Sampling error estimates applicable to any probability-based survey depend on sample size. The maximum sampling error for results based on the overall sample of 377 likely GOP voters is +/- 5.2 percentage points. The maximum sampling error is based on percentages in the middle of the sampling distribution (percentages around 50%). Percentages at either end of the distribution (percentages around 10% or around 90%) have a smaller margin of error. While there are other potential sources of error in surveys besides sampling error, the overall design and execution of the survey minimized the potential for these other sources of error. The maximum sampling error will be larger for subgroups of the overall sample.