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Source: Field Research Corporation (url)

CandidatePolitical PartyPollGraphPoll Details
DObamaDemocratic55%piePoll Date: 2012-07-02
RRomneyRepublican37%Number Polled: 848
-Other-0%Margin of Error: 3%
-Undecided-8%Voter Type: Likely

Obama+18 among LV

 By: Mark Warner 08 (I-AUT) on 2012-07-06 @ 14:32:00

Question:
If the presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, Democrat and Mitt Romney, Republican, for whom would you vote – Obama or Romney?

About this Poll
The latest Field Poll survey was completed June 21-July 2, 2012 among 997 registered voters in California, including 848 voters who report being likely to vote in the November 2012 election. In order to cover a broad range of issues and still minimize voter fatigue, some questions in this report were asked of a random subsample of 485 registered voters.

Interviewing was conducted by telephone in English and Spanish using live interviewers working from Field Research Corporation’s central location telephone interviewing facilities. Up to six attempts were made to reach, screen and interview each randomly selected voter on different days and times of day during the interviewing period.

Interviewing was completed on either a voter’s landline phone or a cell phone depending on the source of the telephone listing from the voter file. In this survey 745 interviews were derived from landline sample listings and 252 from cell phone listings. After the completion of interviewing, the overall registered voter sample was weighted to Field Poll estimates of the characteristics of the overall registered voter population in California.

Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size as well as the percentage distribution being examined. The maximum sampling error estimates for results based on the overall registered voter sample is +/- 3.1 percentage points, while results from the likely voter sample have a sampling error of +/- 3.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Findings based on the random subsample of registered voters have a sampling error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. The maximum sampling error is based on results in the middle of the sampling distribution (i.e., percentages at or near 50%). Percentages at either end of the distribution (those closer to 10% or 90%) have a smaller margin of error. There are other potential sources of error in surveys besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of the survey sought to minimize these other possible sources of error.

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