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Source: Public Policy Institute of CA (url)

CandidatePolitical PartyPollGraphPoll Details
DObamaDemocratic53%piePoll Date: 2012-10-21
RRomneyRepublican41%Number Polled: 993
-Other-2%Margin of Error: 4%
-Undecided-4%Voter Type: Likely

Obama leads by double digits

 By: Lief (D-NY) on 2012-10-25 @ 01:58:51

“If the November 6th presidential election were being held today, would you vote for: the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden or the Republican ticket of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan?”

About this Poll
Findings in this report are based on a survey of 2,006 California adult residents, including 1,605 interviewed on landline telephones and 401 interviewed on cell phones. Interviews took an average of 19 minutes to complete. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from October 14 to 21, 2012.

Landline interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as six times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender.

Cell phones were included in this survey to account for the growing number of Californians who use them. These interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of cell phone numbers. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as eight times to increase the likelihood of reaching an eligible respondent. Once a cell phone user was reached, it was verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving).

Cell phone respondents were offered a small reimbursement to help defray the cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adults who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the household.

Live landline and cell phone interviews were conducted by Abt SRBI, Inc., in English and Spanish, according to respondents’ preferences. Accent on Languages, Inc., translated new survey questions into Spanish, with assistance from Renatta DeFever.

The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±3.2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total sample of 2,006 adults. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 3.2 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger: For the 1,320 registered voters, it is ±3.6 percent; for the 993 likely voters, it is ±4.0 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing.

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