About this Poll
Whom did we poll? 3070 likely Michigan voters, including a large number of swing voters, between May 11-17.

Joe Biden leads, 49-46%. After Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Michigan, 47.5-47.3%, Joe Biden now holds a 3-point lead. Half of Biden’s lead (1.5%) comes from people who didn’t vote in 2016, or voted third party:

46-38% among Gary Johnson voters
64-9% among Jill Stein voters
46-39% among people who didn’t vote in 2016
Who are the swing voters?

Trump-Whitmer: Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) won in 2018 by 53-44%, so there are a lot of people who voted for Trump in 2016 and Whitmer in 2018. In our poll, nearly 30% of these Trump-Whitmer voters are with Biden.
White, non-college women: White women without a college degree have moved towards Biden by 7%—more than just about any other demographic group.
Non-partisans: Voters who don’t affiliate strongly with either party tend to be a bit younger and more moderate than the rest of the electorate, and they support Biden by 46-36%, after splitting 36-36% between Clinton and Trump.
Party unity: Biden has the support of 87% of those who voted for Bernie Sanders this year, which is higher than the 82% of Bernie supporters who voted for Hillary in 2016. Notably, 87% is much higher than the percentage of Bernie supporters who said they’d vote for Biden if he were the nominee during Change Research’s primary polling.