Question:
1* In thinking about the 2012 Election for U.S. Senate, suppose you had a choice between Republican Jeff Flake and Democrat Richard Carmona. If the election were held today, would you vote for Republican Jeff Flake or Democrat Richard Carmona?

A new statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Grand Canyon State finds Republican Congressman Jeff Flake earning 47% support to former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona’s 34%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, while 16% are not sure.

2* What if the Democrats nominate Don Bivens? If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Republican Jeff Flake or Democrat Don Bivens?

If attorney and party activist Don Bivens is the Democratic nominee, Flake still picks up 47%, while Bivens earns 30% of the vote. Given this matchup, three percent (3%) favor another candidate in the race, and another 20% are undecided.

3* What if the Republicans nominate Wil Cardon and the Democrats nominate Richard Carmona? If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Republican Wil Cardon or Democrat Richard Carmona?

Businessman Wil Cardon, Flake’s top GOP primary challenger, leads Bivens by a 42% to 30% margin. Four percent (4%) support some other candidate, while 24% are not sure.

4* What if the Democrats nominate Don Bivens? If the election for US Senate were held today would you vote for Republican Wil Cardon or Democrat Don Bivens?

However, Cardon runs nearly even when Carmona is his Democratic challenger, leading 39% to 38%. In that matchup, three percent (3%) like a different candidate, and 20% more are undecided.

Poll Demographics

About this Poll
This Arizona survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on March 13, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.