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Source: Franklin and Marshall College (url)

CandidatePolitical PartyPollGraphPoll Details
DRobert Casey, Jr.*Democratic48%piePoll Date: 2012-10-28
RTom SmithRepublican39%Number Polled: 547
-Other-3%Margin of Error: 4%
-Undecided-10%Voter Type: Likely

  * = Incumbent

Casey up by 11 in Pennsylvania

 By: Ryne (I-WA) on 2012-10-31 @ 01:55:39

If the November 2012 general election for U.S. Senator was being held today and the candidates were [rotate] Tom Smith, the Republican, Bob Casey Jr., the Democrat, and Rayburn Smith, the Libertarian, would you vote for: [rotate] Tom Smith, Bob Casey Jr., Rayburn Smith, or some other candidate?

About this Poll
The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted October 23 – October 28, 2012. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College under the direction of the poll’s Director Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Head Methodologist Berwood Yost, and Senior Project Manager Angela Knittle. The data included in this release represent the responses of 849 Pennsylvania registered voters, including 427 Democrats, 317 Republicans, and 105 registered as Independent/Other. The sample of registered voters was obtained from Voter Contact Services. Survey results were weighted (region, gender, and party) using an iterative weighting algorithm to reflect the known distribution of those characteristics as reported by the Pennsylvania Department of State.

The sample error for this survey is +/- 3.4 percentage points. The presidential likely voter model, containing 547 voters, has a sample error of +/- 4.2%. Likely voters are those who indicate they are “very much” interested in the campaign and are “certain” to vote. In addition to sampling error, this poll is also subject to other sources of non-sampling error. Generally speaking, two sources of error concern researchers most. Non-response bias is created when selected participants either choose not to participate in the survey or are unavailable for interviewing. Response errors are the product of the question and answer process. Surveys that rely on self-reported behaviors and attitudes are susceptible to biases related to the way respondents process and respond to survey questions.

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