Question:
(If definitely vote, ask:) If the general election for U.S. Senate were held today, and the candidates were [Katie McGinty for the Democrats] and [Pat Toomey for the Republicans], for whom would you vote—[Katie McGinty/Pat Toomey] or for someone else? (Alternate candidate names every other interview.)

(If already voted, ask:) In the election for U.S. Senate, for whom did you vote—[Katie McGinty for the Democrats], [Pat Toomey for the Republicans], or for someone else? (Alternate candidate names each interview.) (If not sure, ask:) Do you just not want to tell, or do you not remember?

(If definitely vote and not sure or would not vote, ask:) Toward which do you lean?

(If already voted and not sure, ask:) Do you just not want to tell, or do you not remember?

About this Poll
The Bloomberg Politics Pennsylvania Poll, conducted Oct. 7-11 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, is based on interviews with 806 Pennsylvania residents who are say they will definitely vote or have already voted in the 2016 general election. In order to look more closely at voters in the four counties that surround Philadelphia (Bucks, Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware counties), an oversample of 215 likely voters in those counties was conducted, leading to a total of 373 likely voters in these suburban Philadelphia counties.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 1,233 Pennsylvania adults with listed landline and cell phone numbers supplied by TargetSmart to reflect the age 18 and over population of Pennsylvania. Responses from the full probability sample were weighted by age and race to reflect the general population based on recent census data. Interviews were administered in English.

Percentages based on the sample of 806 statewide Pennsylvania likely voters may have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, and those based on the sample of 373 likely voters in the four suburban Philadelphia counties may have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for the statewide sample and plus or minus 5.1 percentage points for the suburban counties. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.