Switched Alaska to GOP with Murkowski's primary defeat. Changed percentages of some others; moved California, Oregon, Illinois, and Wisconsin out of tossup status.

Mostly I changed some percentages and leanings. I'm tempted to turn MN Democratic, MI Republican, and FL a tossup, based on recent polls, but I'll have to see some more polls and other indicators of trends before changing my mind.

The only switch I made was in my own state, based on polling that shows O'Malley leading Ehrlich and the fact that O'Malley no longer has a strong primary challenge. However, it's still a tossup and I could well switch it back at any time.

I have a lot of tossups, as in some states the political situation and/or candidate lineup is very unsettled, and voters' attitude toward the national administration is less useful here than in House/Senate predictions.

I think Dems win Alaska if Murkowski is renominated, but if he loses his primary (a strong possibility) it could go either way. Everything in the industrial Midwest is too close and changeable to predict with much confidence, except Ohio where Strickland currently has a pretty healthy lead over Blackwell. The 4-way split in Texas pretty much ensures Rick Perry's reelection despite unimpressive popularity, as he only needs a plurality. And I think Arnold will narrowly pull out a win in California, a belief that became a bit stronger after Angelides' primary win.

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