Election 2006 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-10-29 Version:13

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	17
Ind	0
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	15
Ind	0
Tos	2
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	+5	+6	-1	0	-1	12	1	13	+5
Rep	+1	0	+1	-1	-5	-6	12	4	16	-5
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Comments

State Previous Current
AK R50S R40S
CO D50S D60S
ID R60S R40L
IL D50S D40S
IA D40T D40L
ME D40L D40S
MN D40T R40T
OH D50S D60S
OR D40L D50S
PA D50S D60S
SC R50S R60S
I switched MN to Republican due to the fact that it is so close and that Republicans normally win during bad weather—and it is supposed to be colder, so I’ll go with the Reps. Winning it now.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: Cuivienen (I-NJ) - 2006-10-29 @ 12:04:29

Really? I'd expect Democrats to do better in cold weather since their support is concentrated in the cities where the polling stations are closer to home.

By: Inks.LWC (R-MI) - 2006-11-03 @ 22:01:03

No, it's because the elderly normally vote Democrat and won't go out as often in cold or bad weather.

By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-03 @ 22:23:25

I don't get Michigan; Granholm's had a high-single digit lead for some time now. Also, you may want to reconsider your confidence in Idaho. The last two polls has it a tossup (the last one has Brady leading by 5 points).

By: Inks.LWC (R-MI) - 2006-11-06 @ 12:45:41

I plan on updating it one last time late tonight. As to MI, I'm confident in DeVos.

By: mbjr (I-MN) - 2006-11-06 @ 14:40:39

Actually, it's going to be 65+ degrees (and clear) in Minneapolis on election day tomorrow - near record highs. I assume that means that Hatch will win?

By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-06 @ 15:12:23

Oh, snap!

http://www.weather.com/outlook/homeandgarden/schoolday/wxdetail/USMN0503?dayNum=1&from=search

By: Inks.LWC (R-MI) - 2006-11-06 @ 23:23:38

ya, so much for Wx!

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2023 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	23	74	T	115
2022 Senate	34/35	31/35	65/70	92.9%	1	1	3	T	305
2022 Governor	35/36	29/36	64/72	88.9%	1	1	5	T	272
2021 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	6	1	T	118
2020 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	1	6	179	T	684
2020 Senate	33/35	23/35	56/70	80.0%	1	4	44	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	1	6	51	T	293
2019 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	1	4	14	T	192
2018 Senate	31/35	25/35	56/70	80.0%	1	1	42	T	483
2018 Governor	30/36	26/36	56/72	77.8%	1	3	94	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	2	40	T	149
2016 President	52/56	35/56	87/112	77.7%	2	1	35	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	23/34	54/68	79.4%	1	1	6	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	2	1	67	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	11	8	T	112
2014 Senate	33/36	24/36	57/72	79.2%	3	5	82	T	382
2014 Governor	29/36	18/36	47/72	65.3%	3	1	97	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	2	6	17	T	153
2012 President	54/56	46/56	100/112	89.3%	7	1	115	T	760
2012 Senate	30/33	18/33	48/66	72.7%	5	1	144	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	2	1	51	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	43/52	22/52	65/104	62.5%	37	-	22	T	231
2011 Governor	3/4	1/4	4/8	50.0%	1	332	79	T	106
2010 Senate	34/37	28/37	62/74	83.8%	16	0	21	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	27/37	62/74	83.8%	8	0	17	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	5	6	1	T	103
2008 President	51/56	45/56	96/112	85.7%	32	1	74	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	14	1	28	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	10	1	86	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	42/52	26/52	68/104	65.4%	30	-	20	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	41/49	19/49	60/98	61.2%	31	-	11	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	4	21	58	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	30/33	17/33	47/66	71.2%	10	2	232	T	465
2006 Governor	34/36	25/36	59/72	81.9%	14	1	36	T	312
2004 President	51/56	25/56	76/112	67.9%	24	4	1441	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	900/994	637/994	1537/1988	77.3%

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