PredictionsEndorse2006 Gubernatorial Predictions - db099221 (--CA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-01 Version:11

Prediction Map
db099221 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
db099221 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
36 |
50 |
Dem21
 
pie
Rep15
 
Ind0
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
36 |
50 |
Dem17
 
pie
Rep9
 
Ind0
 
Tos10
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+2+5+700013114+7
Rep000-2-5-711415-7
Ind0000000000


Comments
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Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 10

A little optimistic, but I think that the Dems will gain at least 5.


Version: 9

Changes

Party

Alaska - Lean Rep
Minnesota - Tossup Dem

Confidence

Arkansas - Strong Dem
Maine - Tossup Dem
Oregon - Lean Dem
Hawaii - Strong Rep

Note: I meant to put CO as 50%.


Version: 8

It appears that Jim Davis is closing the gap in Florida. Just a few weeks ago, he was behind by double digits. Now, he is behind by only about 5-7 points.


Version: 6

Changed Iowa to tossup on the confidence map.


Version History


Member Comments

 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-01 @ 19:55:20

Only prediction change was RI - Carcieri is making a comeback.

Please feel free to comment.
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 By: Cuivienen (I-NJ) - 2006-11-01 @ 20:44:31

I would reccomend you reassess your confidence in Idaho. Also, it's too late for people to rally behind an anti-Perry candidate in Texas. Perry is safe. That's all, really.prediction Map

 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-01 @ 21:30:27

I meant to change Idaho, I just forgot. I did now.

In Texas, it's a pretty volatile race. I think that Perry will win, and I'll change it to strong on November 6th if nothing changes.
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 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-01 @ 22:11:05

I disagree with Cuivienen on Texas. There are far too many things going on in that race to have it labeled more than a toss-up. Bell has done better than expected, Strayhorn has the highest popularity percentage out of all of them (57%), and Kinky's popularity has plummeted. The good news for Perry right now is that his popularity is rising to 50%, which should help him out on election day. However, whenever an incumbent looks they will win re-election with less than 40% of the vote, I have trouble justifying confidence in any one candidate. prediction Map

 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-01 @ 22:33:02

Nevada and Idaho are two races that have unexpectedly, recently become competitive. Here's the Political Wire story on Nevada:

In Nevada, Assault Accusations Tighten Race
"Despite a seemingly endless stream of news about accusations he attacked a local woman earlier this month," Rep. Jim Gibbons (R-NV) "still would be voted Nevada's governor if the election were held today," according to a Las Vegas Review-Journal poll.

However, Gibbons' lead over Dina Titus (D) was cut to 4%, 44% to 40%, just within the survey's margin of sampling error.

Said pollster Brad Coker: "In a normal situation Gibbons would be winning this race. Now it's not quite clear. This whole incident has definitely muddied the waters a little bit. If this story continues to produce new information, it could be trouble for him."

The AP notes "a possible measure of how much damage the scandal has done" by reporting President Bush "is headed to Nevada for the second time in a month, with a speech scheduled Thursday in Gibbons' solidly Republican congressional district."
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 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-01 @ 22:35:25

Iowa and Wisconsin are the only Dem seats that I think can be lost. You know, I don't think the gubernatorial races get the attention they deserve. Nowadays, governors and secretaries of state are instrumental in determining elections - even for President.prediction Map

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-02 @ 02:04:02

Even more so since Governors are the most likely people to be elected president other than former VPs. I find it very interesting and somewhat unsettling that so many of the 2008 frontrunners are Senators or former Senators. I'm hoping that the governors and "America's Mayor" can step it up enough to overcome the Senate crowd. Speaking of America's Mayor wouldn't it make more sense for this title to go to the mayor of DC? Thats always struck me as odd.prediction Map

 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-03 @ 15:43:20

Does anyone know WHY Idaho is a tossup? What happened?prediction Map

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-03 @ 17:31:00

Recent poll today has the Democrat in Idaho governor race up 5% and CD ID-1 the Dem is up 4% This is consistent with other polls showing both races within the margin of error.

I have not found anything definitive as to why Brady is doing well in Idaho now other than the Republican Speaker of the Idaho State House has publically referred to Butch Otter as an "idiot," and other commentators, if they can be believed, say that there is a strong anti-incumbent mood in Idaho now.

Funny thing is that Gibbons in Nevada should hold on even though there is a steamy scandal surrounding him right now.
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 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-03 @ 19:36:45

With Nevada and Idaho coming into play, the Democratic ceiling just rose a little more. I think the Dems will 6-9 governorships.

Last Edit: 2006-11-03 @ 19:36:53
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 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-05 @ 09:20:02

Based on the most recent polls listed on this site, Culver seems to be pulling away. BTW, say it's a really tight race with voting disputes. Can Culver decide his own election? Or does it go to someone else?

Last Edit: 2006-11-05 @ 09:20:55
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 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-06 @ 00:24:13

I'm not sure. Back when Ohio was actually close people talked about this situation with Blackwell but Strickland is currently running away with it. I think he may be boosting Brown's numbers as well making DeWine's defeat a certainty rather than a maybe. Anyways, at this point if Blackwell declared himself a victor on election night we'd all know he was lying.prediction Map

 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-06 @ 15:22:41

Teasing, playful words from Topinka and Blagojevich:

(Political Wire)
Bonus Quote of the Day
"Maybe he ought to run for manager of the Cubs. They're a bunch of losers, too, and need some help."

-- Illinois gubernatorial candidate Judy Baar Topinka (R), quoted by the AP, in reference to Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) who responded, "If she wants to say I'm a loser and call me names ... God bless her, but leave the Cubs alone."
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 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-06 @ 17:11:55

Oh Lord, Oh Lord... my best hope now is that the District Attourney indicts Blagojevich between now and tomorrow morning. Truth be told, Blagojevich has stated in the past that he would like to be manager of the Cubs. prediction Map

 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-07 @ 00:08:54

Guys, it's TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2006.

ELECTION DAY!
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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2008 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 7 1 100T1,505
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 1 140 58T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 22/33 55/66 83.3% pie 11 0 46T465
P 2006 Governor 35/36 28/36 63/72 87.5% pie 12 0 10T312
Aggregate Predictions 123/128 95/128 218/256 85.2% pie


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