Idaho has finished its fast fade to become a GOP tossup in my eyesI'll want to see the Dem in the lead and the undecideds more decided that they currently are before switching this to a Dem tossup.

Minnesota and Nevada have narrowed, making me less certain of those, while in Maine Merril's surge has drawn enough away from Woodcock (R) to make Baldacci (D) to make that a strong instead of a lean. If that surge continues, the question will become can Woodcock keep from falling to third place?

Obviously, the most dramatic change in my map is in Idaho which has gone from 60% strong to 50% lean on the basis of a single internal poll. I'll want more than that before I consider putting Idaho as being any more favorable to the Dems than that.

As I threatened, lack of Oregon polling has caused me to place that state in the tossup column.

I really do wwish we had a more recent poll for Oregon. I may just move that state form lean to toss up if there isn't any new data the next time I make prediction.

Only real reason for me to make a new prediction is that it has been a week. No significant changes, but a few minor tweaks.

No switches in which parties I think will win from my last prediction, but % and confidence changes mainly towards the GOP.

While current polls show that Barber will beat Bauer for Lt. Gov., and thereby end any chance for Sanford to be the VP nominee in 2008, given those same polls and Moore's inability or unwillingness to counter Sanford's ad barrage, I can't see Tommy having any chance now, so I've changed SC from lean GOP to strong GOP.

As you can see, my prediction is fairly close to the CW on this forum save that I tend to have lower percentages and higher confidence levels. The exception to that trend is in Texas and South Carolina, which I see as Lean GOP as opposed to the CW of Strong GOP.

I'm moving Nevada from lean GOP to strong GOP. I only had it at lean beacuse I wasn't 100% certain who would win the primaries. Dina would have my vote if I lived in Nevada though. Anyone who light-sabers Jar-Jar gets my vote. ;)

Moving to Michigan from the GOP to the Dem column now. One poll I was willing to dismiss as a possible outlier, but not two.

Only change is PA from lean Dem to strong Dem.

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