Election 2006 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-06 Version:113

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	15
Ind	0
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	15
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	+5	+7	0	0	0	13	1	14	+7
Rep	0	0	0	-2	-5	-7	11	4	15	-7
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Comments

Final prediction, Dems net gain 7 seats. No tossups, moved eveything to lean. Comments are welcome but this is my final map.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-06 @ 13:02:30

Cool, our gubernatorial maps are identical, too!

By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-06 @ 23:44:48

Blagojevich will not get over 50% Even Survey USA says that in their last analysis of the race.

By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-06 @ 23:45:22

Culver has a chance to pull 50% though.

By: Olawakandi (G-CA) - 2006-11-07 @ 02:24:43

I expect Blagojevich to get 50% and we will see on election day, okay. And I don't listen to every poll out there. The Daily Herald had Blagojevich pretty close to 50% 48%-32%, and I expect him to wind up there ultimately tomorrow. http://www.dailyherald.com/polls/103006/governor.html. My map is a better predictor than yours that has JB Topinka winning which is unlikely. Each person evaluates their map differently and I don't expect my map to be like yours just like you chose Topinka to win. We will see who is a better predictor tomorrow. As I stated I will not change my prediction.

Last Edit: 2006-11-07 @ 02:34:55

By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-07 @ 03:14:00

Meow! Hissss! Although I'm not so sur Topinka will win I have to agree with RfD on Blago's numbers. All signs point to a plurality win regardless of the candidate in IL. Same deal in Maine where there appears to be a 4-way going on with only 1% undecided.

By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-07 @ 04:48:10

Well how do I handle this. Truth be told, Blagojevich has the advantage to win. That is a distinct possibility that I have never denied. Topinka has a chance, but it is a far outside chance. Furthermore, I have always stated that I am a hack when it comes to the Illinois governor race. Blagojevich is a horrible governor. I cannot allow myself to predict he will win. Though I will be wrong, I will sleep better knowing that I have always been for the better choice. Polling indicates that Blagojevich is around 44-45%

Last Edit: 2006-11-07 @ 13:29:09

By: Olawakandi (G-CA) - 2006-11-07 @ 06:51:58

The numbers I give Blagojevich doesn't necessarily mean he will get to 50% but it is my confidence that he will win 50% chance or more. We Will find out today will we. And I find it hard to have zero chance when you are at 48%, that may not be goood enough for you, but it is for me.

Last Edit: 2006-11-07 @ 06:54:25

By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-08 @ 04:35:57

Well Blagojevich is only running about 49.1% right now. Depending on how the fiasco in Cook County plays out, Blagojevich may reach 50% by morning. I am very much surprised that Mr. Blagojevich is winning by this margin but we shall see how the final result tallys out.

BTW, what are your opinions on the Cook County fiasco going right now? I have never seen a candidate go down to the County Clerk's office and challenge the results. Very intersting.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2023 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	25	22	108	T	115
2022 Senate	25/35	12/35	37/70	52.9%	271	0	298	T	305
2022 Governor	27/36	14/36	41/72	56.9%	281	0	265	T	272
2021 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	11	41	48	T	118
2020 President	45/56	26/56	71/112	63.4%	443	5	670	T	684
2020 Senate	24/35	8/35	32/70	45.7%	339	3	422		423
2020 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	127	5	264	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	61	4	104	T	192
2018 Senate	28/35	15/35	43/70	61.4%	201	1	417	T	483
2018 Governor	29/36	13/36	42/72	58.3%	212	3	330	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	0/2	2/4	50.0%	1	99	98	T	149
2016 President	47/56	20/56	67/112	59.8%	337	3	597	T	678
2016 Senate	26/34	12/34	38/68	55.9%	344	2	352	T	362
2016 Governor	7/12	5/12	12/24	50.0%	127	3	164	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	72	0	57	T	112
2014 Senate	28/36	12/36	40/72	55.6%	435	0	337	T	382
2014 Governor	25/36	6/36	31/72	43.1%	402	0	293	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	0/2	2/4	50.0%	19	1	98	T	153
2012 President	55/56	25/56	80/112	71.4%	291	1	681	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	19/33	50/66	75.8%	171	1	111	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	4/11	15/22	68.2%	103	1	131	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	29/52	8/52	37/104	35.6%	116	-	121	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	2/4	6/8	75.0%	18	186	12	T	106
2010 Senate	34/37	15/37	49/74	66.2%	281	1	242	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	8/37	42/74	56.8%	280	1	230	T	312
2009 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	26	40	56	T	103
2008 President	52/56	29/56	81/112	72.3%	129	1	474	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	16/33	49/66	74.2%	95	1	144	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	39	3	27	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	47/52	20/52	67/104	64.4%	55	-	23	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	39/49	14/49	53/98	54.1%	23	-	36	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	8	24	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	24/33	57/66	86.4%	117	0	20	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	28/36	63/72	87.5%	114	0	10	T	312
2004 President	51/56	31/56	82/112	73.2%	167	1	1036	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	833/994	407/994	1240/1988	62.4%

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