PredictionsEndorse2006 Gubernatorial Predictions - Olawakandi (D-CA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-06 Version:113

Prediction Map
Olawakandi MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Olawakandi MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
36 |
50 |
Dem21
 
pie
Rep15
 
Ind0
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
36 |
50 |
Dem21
 
pie
Rep15
 
Ind0
 
Tos0
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+2+5+700013114+7
Rep000-2-5-711415-7
Ind0000000000


Comments

Final prediction, Dems net gain 7 seats. No tossups, moved eveything to lean. Comments are welcome but this is my final map.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-06 @ 13:02:30

Cool, our gubernatorial maps are identical, too!prediction Map

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-06 @ 23:44:48

Blagojevich will not get over 50% Even Survey USA says that in their last analysis of the race. prediction Map

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-06 @ 23:45:22

Culver has a chance to pull 50% though. prediction Map

 By: Olawakandi (D-CA) - 2006-11-07 @ 02:24:43

I expect Blagojevich to get 50% and we will see on election day, okay. And I don't listen to every poll out there. The Daily Herald had Blagojevich pretty close to 50% 48%-32%, and I expect him to wind up there ultimately tomorrow. http://www.dailyherald.com/polls/103006/governor.html. My map is a better predictor than yours that has JB Topinka winning which is unlikely. Each person evaluates their map differently and I don't expect my map to be like yours just like you chose Topinka to win. We will see who is a better predictor tomorrow. As I stated I will not change my prediction.

Last Edit: 2006-11-07 @ 02:34:55
prediction Map

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-07 @ 03:14:00

Meow! Hissss! Although I'm not so sur Topinka will win I have to agree with RfD on Blago's numbers. All signs point to a plurality win regardless of the candidate in IL. Same deal in Maine where there appears to be a 4-way going on with only 1% undecided.prediction Map

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-07 @ 04:48:10

Well how do I handle this. Truth be told, Blagojevich has the advantage to win. That is a distinct possibility that I have never denied. Topinka has a chance, but it is a far outside chance. Furthermore, I have always stated that I am a hack when it comes to the Illinois governor race. Blagojevich is a horrible governor. I cannot allow myself to predict he will win. Though I will be wrong, I will sleep better knowing that I have always been for the better choice. Polling indicates that Blagojevich is around 44-45%

Last Edit: 2006-11-07 @ 13:29:09
prediction Map

 By: Olawakandi (D-CA) - 2006-11-07 @ 06:51:58

The numbers I give Blagojevich doesn't necessarily mean he will get to 50% but it is my confidence that he will win 50% chance or more. We Will find out today will we. And I find it hard to have zero chance when you are at 48%, that may not be goood enough for you, but it is for me.

Last Edit: 2006-11-07 @ 06:54:25
prediction Map

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-08 @ 04:35:57

Well Blagojevich is only running about 49.1% right now. Depending on how the fiasco in Cook County plays out, Blagojevich may reach 50% by morning. I am very much surprised that Mr. Blagojevich is winning by this margin but we shall see how the final result tallys out.

BTW, what are your opinions on the Cook County fiasco going right now? I have never seen a candidate go down to the County Clerk's office and challenge the results. Very intersting.
prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422
P 2020 Governor /11 /11 /22 % pie 292
P 2019 Governor 2/3 1/3 3/6 50.0% pie 61 4 104T192
P 2018 Senate 28/35 15/35 43/70 61.4% pie 201 1 417T483
P 2018 Governor 29/36 13/36 42/72 58.3% pie 212 3 330T372
P 2017 Governor 2/2 0/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 99 98T149
P 2016 President 47/56 20/56 67/112 59.8% pie 337 3 597T678
P 2016 Senate 26/34 12/34 38/68 55.9% pie 344 2 352T362
P 2016 Governor 7/12 5/12 12/24 50.0% pie 127 3 164T279
P 2015 Governor 2/3 1/3 3/6 50.0% pie 72 0 57T112
P 2014 Senate 28/36 12/36 40/72 55.6% pie 435 0 337T382
P 2014 Governor 25/36 6/36 31/72 43.1% pie 402 0 293T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 0/2 2/4 50.0% pie 19 1 98T153
P 2012 President 55/56 25/56 80/112 71.4% pie 291 1 681T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 19/33 50/66 75.8% pie 171 1 111T343
P 2012 Governor 11/11 4/11 15/22 68.2% pie 103 1 131T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 29/52 8/52 37/104 35.6% pie 116 - 121T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 2/4 6/8 75.0% pie 18 186 12T106
P 2010 Senate 34/37 15/37 49/74 66.2% pie 281 1 242T456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 8/37 42/74 56.8% pie 280 1 230T312
P 2009 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 26 40 56T103
P 2008 President 52/56 29/56 81/112 72.3% pie 129 1 474T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 16/33 49/66 74.2% pie 95 1 144T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 39 3 27T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 47/52 20/52 67/104 64.4% pie 55 - 23T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 39/49 14/49 53/98 54.1% pie 23 - 36T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 8 24 1T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 24/33 57/66 86.4% pie 117 0 20T465
P 2006 Governor 35/36 28/36 63/72 87.5% pie 114 0 10T312
P 2004 President 51/56 31/56 82/112 73.2% pie 167 1 1036T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 701/816 340/816 1041/1632 63.8% pie


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