Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction States Won

		25 |	36 |	50 |
Dem	21
Rep	15
Ind	0
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		25 |	36 |	50 |
Dem	21
Rep	15
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	+5	+7	0	0	0	13	1	14	+7
Rep	0	0	0	-2	-5	-7	11	4	15	-7
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Comments

Final prediction, Dems net gain 7 seats. No tossups, moved eveything to lean. Comments are welcome but this is my final map.

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 113

Final prediction, Dems net gain 7 seats. No tossups, moved eveything to lean. Comments are welcome but this is my final map.

Version: 112

Final Governor prediction: Dems net gain 7 seats. FL and NV lead of Republicans are too great to overcome. MN is more likely to change.

Version: 108

LD: MN, MI, IA, MD, and OR
LR: ID, AK, and RI

Version: 107

Final map Dems net gain 7 seats.

Version: 106

LR: AK and RI
LD: MI, MD, WI, and OR
TU: MN and IA

Version: 104

TU: MN, IA, and OR
LD: ME, WI, MI and MD
LR: RI, FL, and Ak

Version: 97

LD: IL, WI, MI, CO, ME, MD
TU: IA, MN, OR, and RI
LR: NV

Version: 93

TU: IA, MN, WI, OR, and RI
LD: MI, CO, and ME
LR: NV

Version: 92

TU: WI, MN, IA, and RI
LD: MI, OR, ME, MD, and CO
LR: NV

Version: 91

R: CA and FL
D: MI, IL, WI, MD
TU: OR, MN, IA, ME, and RI

MN and ME flips due to the low approvals of the governors.

Version: 90

TU: ME, MN, IA, OR, and RI
LR: NV, and CA
LD: WI, MD, MA, and MI

Version: 85

CR:
LD: WI, MI, and MD NA
LR: SC, NV NA
TU; IA, MN, OR, ME, and RI NCA

Version: 81

LR: MN, CA, and FL
LD: MI, WI, and ME
TU: RI and IA

Version: 77

TU: FL, MN, IA, WI, MI, and ME challengers are within 6pts.

Version: 76

TU: RI, IA, and MD

Version: 75

MN=TU do to conflicting polls
IA=TU 1 poll has Nussle ahead the other Culver
MI=TU 1 point lead in one poll.
RI=LR due to a 12 pt advantage in one poll

Version: 69

Looks like FL is less likely now, Moved CA to lean Republican, better chance of a change in party now.

Version: 66

RI= TU R Chafee won so it win help Carcieri.

Version: 65

Primaries are over and here is where I am at:
RI=TU
ME=TU
MI=LD
I think ME is the most likely defeat for the dems not MI because ME is much more republican than MI.

FL, MN Davis and Hatch have the same problem, those states are GOP friendly environments and they are at a disadvantage in money (Done updating map for now).

Version: 64

MN=TU D 2 Zogby and 1 Gallup poll confim that.

Version: 63

MN>D Gallup poll, and Zogby
FL>strong Republican Crist is unbeatable, wishful thinking that Davis would beat Christ. The Dnc isn't going to give him the money like they did in 2002.
CA>lean Republican because of Schwarz mouth and Zogby showed a 5 point lead. Decided to go back to my instinct that CA is more likely to go Dem before FL.
RI>TU R give republicans the edge because RI has failed to reelect the gov since 1968.

Version: 62

Moved CA to lean because of comment from Schwarzenegger.

Version: 60

MN=TU
FL=TU
AK=TU
RI=TU
IA=TU

Version: 59

MN>TU due to Gallup polls
FL>TU due to Rasmussen polls

Things are looking better for Dems in those two states.

Version: 57

Remaining races without a clear advantage:
ME>TU
MI>TU

FL>TU no incumbant
RI>TU
AK>TU no incumbant

Version: 55

I switched AK, I think that Knowles being former gov will give him a leg up on Palin and he has more more, and the intraparty feud with the Murkowski camp doesn't bold well for her campaign.

Version: 54

Moved ME to Dem lean because independednt dropped out of race.

Version: 50

Moved NV to Dem, Zogby has Titus leading Gibbons. Moved MN to tossup, Zogby has Pawlenty leading. Moved FL to tossup, yes FL is more vulnerable than CA. Moved MI to lean Dem because of Zogby as well.

Version: 49

Most likely to switch parties: NY, OH, MA, AR, CO, IA, MD, CA, AK, MI

Version: 44

CA lean R>TU
Ar lean D>TU
Because of there being a lot if Independents in CA, and they will decide the race in CA. I overstated Arnold's support, and understated Angelidas' support.

Asa Hutchinson is coming back.

Version: 43

Narrowed it down to 6 tossups: MN, IA, MD, AK, RI, and MI. Those are where the last of the balance of the governorships will lay. I would love to pick up CA or FL, but the candidates are down by double figures. Clear republican advantage goes to NV Dina Titus is a good candidate but it isn't happening.

Version: 38

Change
CA>R
NV>R
FL>R
MI>D

MN=TU
MI=TU
RI=TU

These rating changes are from the Stuart Rothenberg Report.

Version: 36

I put all the states except AK and MI as tossup in which a leader has a lead of 6 points or less. Crist has a 5 point lead, Schwartz has a 6 point lead, Doyle has a 1 point lead, Culver has a 3 point lead and Carcieri is tied in RI. MI is a tossup because Granholm and DeVos have traded leads and the same in AK. NV and MN the leader has a 8-11 pt lead, the same in MD and MA so don't count. In CO, Ritter has a 7 pt lead.

Version: 35

Put MN back to tossup and FL because Larry Crystal ball says that these states are still in play for the Dems. Changed Or to lean Dem because Westlund dropped out. NV is still lean Dem because Larry Sabato says that it leans that way. CA no one can predict how this race will end up turning out. CO is still a tossup because in a state like CO, no one can predict how that state will end up, because it is just too unpredictable despite Ritter leading in the polls.

Version: 33

Moved OR to Dem lean due to Westlund might drop his indy bid.

Version: 32

Put NV as tossup, it seems that either Titus of Gibson can give Gibbons a run for his money. As for FL, Crist is too well liked to lose, Davis stands no chance to beat him, and he has no traction in the polls. CA still a tossup pending on the release of the LA Time polls. Changed AK to GOP cause it looks like Palin is going to win the primary and looks like the favorite to win, but remains a tossup due to the favorability of Knowles.

Version: 28

Changed my ratings of IL, MD, and MA, the Dems will win easily in those races, because of the weak candidates in those 3 states. The Dems are winning lopsidily in those 3 states because the GOP due to the losses and collapse of their political party due to the GOP not being strong enough to win. Put ME back as tossup eventhough Baldacci is ahead right now, he isn't near 50%.

Version: 27

Changed SC to republican lean. It seems like Sanford isn't safe after all.

Version: 17

Modified CA, Schwartz seem stronger than expected over the liberal Angelidas.

Version: 15

Zogby has Granholm up I am changing MI and he has Nussle ahead in IA.

Version: 5

Put MI as Dem lean and changed IL to toss up due to Bush coming to IL campaigning for Topinka. That will give her a boost. Keep WI as a battleground due to its unpredictability. As for MI put it as Dem lean due to the manufacturing job loss there.

Version: 4

Put my map like Zogby. Zogby says Dem will lose MN and IA and sweep the 3 midwestern states and win CA.

Version: 3

Moved IA to Republican favored due to Iowa trending republican presidentially and Zogby has Nussle ahead by a smigin. And the Hotline says this is where the Dems might lose a seat.

Version History

114: 2006-11-07 @ 11:41:19 113: 2006-11-06 @ 09:21:48 112: 2006-11-05 @ 22:35:31 111: 2006-11-04 @ 00:19:56 110: 2006-11-03 @ 18:40:24 109: 2006-11-01 @ 09:01:00 108: 2006-10-31 @ 14:46:58 107: 2006-10-29 @ 11:29:59 106: 2006-10-28 @ 21:41:37 105: 2006-10-27 @ 12:12:55 104: 2006-10-26 @ 22:38:19 103: 2006-10-25 @ 23:15:39 102: 2006-10-24 @ 20:35:32 101: 2006-10-23 @ 23:22:24 100: 2006-10-22 @ 21:42:23 99: 2006-10-21 @ 18:49:35 98: 2006-10-20 @ 19:46:50 97: 2006-10-18 @ 16:41:24 96: 2006-10-17 @ 19:14:19 95: 2006-10-16 @ 20:23:44 94: 2006-10-15 @ 23:45:59 93: 2006-10-14 @ 23:55:54 92: 2006-10-13 @ 23:14:17 91: 2006-10-12 @ 22:06:21 90: 2006-10-11 @ 18:29:06 89: 2006-10-10 @ 22:23:08 88: 2006-10-09 @ 20:22:44 87: 2006-10-08 @ 18:22:27 86: 2006-10-07 @ 22:32:05 85: 2006-10-06 @ 18:35:30 84: 2006-10-05 @ 21:46:54 83: 2006-10-04 @ 20:29:30 82: 2006-10-02 @ 23:53:17 81: 2006-09-30 @ 19:58:49 80: 2006-09-29 @ 20:01:54 79: 2006-09-28 @ 07:45:01 78: 2006-09-26 @ 13:09:09 77: 2006-09-24 @ 15:23:18 76: 2006-09-23 @ 22:56:35 75: 2006-09-22 @ 18:19:26 74: 2006-09-21 @ 16:48:17 73: 2006-09-20 @ 16:35:03 72: 2006-09-19 @ 23:38:27 71: 2006-09-18 @ 21:29:11 70: 2006-09-17 @ 21:33:43 69: 2006-09-15 @ 13:45:25 68: 2006-09-14 @ 19:49:54 67: 2006-09-13 @ 23:18:47 66: 2006-09-12 @ 22:55:22 65: 2006-09-11 @ 20:20:42 64: 2006-09-10 @ 23:59:44 63: 2006-09-09 @ 20:54:43 62: 2006-09-08 @ 23:47:14 61: 2006-09-07 @ 23:11:50 60: 2006-09-06 @ 22:24:40 59: 2006-09-05 @ 20:45:36 58: 2006-09-04 @ 20:31:54 57: 2006-09-03 @ 23:48:49 56: 2006-09-02 @ 18:33:35 55: 2006-09-01 @ 20:53:25 54: 2006-08-31 @ 23:59:43 53: 2006-08-30 @ 13:20:28 52: 2006-08-29 @ 23:54:14 51: 2006-08-28 @ 22:47:17 50: 2006-08-27 @ 20:29:31 49: 2006-08-26 @ 16:54:12 48: 2006-08-25 @ 12:09:56 47: 2006-08-24 @ 22:21:25 46: 2006-08-23 @ 21:45:08 45: 2006-08-22 @ 23:12:56 44: 2006-08-21 @ 17:48:50 43: 2006-08-20 @ 19:10:47 42: 2006-08-19 @ 18:03:35 41: 2006-08-18 @ 21:50:29 40: 2006-08-17 @ 20:46:05 39: 2006-08-16 @ 22:11:40 38: 2006-08-15 @ 00:00:12 37: 2006-08-14 @ 23:09:26 36: 2006-08-13 @ 15:51:34 35: 2006-08-12 @ 18:15:59 34: 2006-08-11 @ 21:31:40 33: 2006-08-10 @ 17:26:00 32: 2006-08-09 @ 18:18:37 31: 2006-08-08 @ 21:06:42 30: 2006-08-07 @ 20:45:53 29: 2006-08-06 @ 19:46:51 28: 2006-08-05 @ 21:10:01 27: 2006-08-04 @ 16:21:34 26: 2006-08-03 @ 20:59:29 25: 2006-08-02 @ 23:59:39 24: 2006-08-01 @ 19:49:13 23: 2006-07-31 @ 17:05:15 22: 2006-07-30 @ 17:07:08 21: 2006-07-29 @ 11:09:58 20: 2006-07-28 @ 21:32:22 19: 2006-07-27 @ 14:28:06 18: 2006-07-26 @ 12:48:00 17: 2006-07-25 @ 19:06:24 16: 2006-07-24 @ 19:48:17 15: 2006-07-23 @ 23:53:20 14: 2006-07-22 @ 21:38:10 13: 2006-07-21 @ 20:42:42 12: 2006-07-20 @ 21:36:06 11: 2006-07-17 @ 06:20:30 10: 2006-07-16 @ 22:18:55 9: 2006-07-14 @ 18:37:05 8: 2006-07-12 @ 13:39:43 7: 2006-07-11 @ 19:42:21 6: 2006-07-10 @ 22:20:20 5: 2006-07-09 @ 14:12:08 4: 2006-07-08 @ 14:55:55 3: 2006-07-07 @ 18:34:03 2: 2006-07-06 @ 13:13:22 1: 2006-07-05 @ 15:20:20 View Version

Member Comments

 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-06 @ 13:02:30

Cool, our gubernatorial maps are identical, too!

---

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-06 @ 23:44:48

Blagojevich will not get over 50% Even Survey USA says that in their last analysis of the race.

---

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-06 @ 23:45:22

Culver has a chance to pull 50% though.

---

 By: Olawakandi (G-CA) - 2006-11-07 @ 02:24:43

I expect Blagojevich to get 50% and we will see on election day, okay. And I don't listen to every poll out there. The Daily Herald had Blagojevich pretty close to 50% 48%-32%, and I expect him to wind up there ultimately tomorrow. http://www.dailyherald.com/polls/103006/governor.html. My map is a better predictor than yours that has JB Topinka winning which is unlikely. Each person evaluates their map differently and I don't expect my map to be like yours just like you chose Topinka to win. We will see who is a better predictor tomorrow. As I stated I will not change my prediction. Last Edit: 2006-11-07 @ 02:34:55

---

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-07 @ 03:14:00

Meow! Hissss! Although I'm not so sur Topinka will win I have to agree with RfD on Blago's numbers. All signs point to a plurality win regardless of the candidate in IL. Same deal in Maine where there appears to be a 4-way going on with only 1% undecided.

---

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-07 @ 04:48:10

Well how do I handle this. Truth be told, Blagojevich has the advantage to win. That is a distinct possibility that I have never denied. Topinka has a chance, but it is a far outside chance. Furthermore, I have always stated that I am a hack when it comes to the Illinois governor race. Blagojevich is a horrible governor. I cannot allow myself to predict he will win. Though I will be wrong, I will sleep better knowing that I have always been for the better choice. Polling indicates that Blagojevich is around 44-45% Last Edit: 2006-11-07 @ 13:29:09

---

 By: Olawakandi (G-CA) - 2006-11-07 @ 06:51:58

The numbers I give Blagojevich doesn't necessarily mean he will get to 50% but it is my confidence that he will win 50% chance or more. We Will find out today will we. And I find it hard to have zero chance when you are at 48%, that may not be goood enough for you, but it is for me. Last Edit: 2006-11-07 @ 06:54:25

---

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-08 @ 04:35:57

Well Blagojevich is only running about 49.1% right now. Depending on how the fiasco in Cook County plays out, Blagojevich may reach 50% by morning. I am very much surprised that Mr. Blagojevich is winning by this margin but we shall see how the final result tallys out. BTW, what are your opinions on the Cook County fiasco going right now? I have never seen a candidate go down to the County Clerk's office and challenge the results. Very intersting.

---

Links

• View Olawakandi Senatorial Predictions
• View Olawakandi Gubernatorial Endorsements
• View Most Recent Entries
• View Entries with Most Recent Member Comments
• Go to Gubernatorial Prediction Home