Election 2006 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-06 Version:59

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	15
Ind	0
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	15
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	+5	+7	0	0	0	13	1	14	+7
Rep	0	0	0	-2	-5	-7	11	4	15	-7
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
61	35	26

Comments
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Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 58

Illinois, Minnesota, Idaho and Nebraska are at under 50%, because of strong 3rd party candidates.
Unlike the Sanatorial races, these ones are far from being finished. This might be the way it'll turn out, and might not.

Version: 56

I think both Rendell and Strickland will get the push they need to get over 60%.

Version: 55

First Mennsota, then Idaho, and now Alaska. The Republicans are really falling in the Gubernatorial races.

Version: 54

Idaho a tossup!?

Version: 47

Changed Minnesota to the Democrats.

Might change Iowa.

Maine and Oregon, I suspect, will stay with their governors.

Version: 40

Despite my sentimental connection to Florida, I must admitt that it isn't looking good for us (Democrats).
At least Harris, for the Senate, will get crushed.

Version: 35

I have been convinced not to give up hope on Minnesota, though I still think Pawlenty will win, probably with about 53-54% of the vote (just a hunch).

Maine has a special place in my heart, so I am moving it to "lean". It'll probably go Democrat anyway.

Version: 34

Just for the fun of it, I'm moving Florida to the tossup. Things are looking better in my home state.

Version: 33

As in the Senate race, the Dems seem to be slipping. CA and MN stay in GOP hands. Unless something drastic happens...
The good news is that Michigan is going better than before.
I still thnk Iowa and Maine will fall into place, too.

Version: 32

Michigan is just beginning to look better.
Oklahoma is safe.
California ain't pretty.
I still think Alaska is going for Palin.

Version: 30

Pakin won the Republican primary in Alaska, and the Rasmussen poll has her leading over Knowles. I'm leaving Alaska as a tossup, just to wait for a new poll to come out directly between Palin and Knowles.

Florida being a tossup is just a fantasy of mine. *sad face*

Version: 29

Maine and Iowa have become a little loose for the Dems.

Version: 27

Assuming Murkowski in Alaska will get the Republican nomination (which he probably won't), than Knowles will deffinately win.
However, we must wait untill Tuesday to find out, than we'll have to wait for new polls to come out regarding to new GOP candidate.

Version: 26

I moved Michigan back to Granholm.

Version: 21

I moved California back to the hands of Schwarzenegger.

Version: 18

I suppose the real show-down will be in California, Minnesota and Rhode Island.

Version: 17

The one that I am really not sure about is California.

Version: 14

Due to the last poll, I had to move Michigan to the Republicans.

For the time being, Florida is staying with the Republicans. But as the height of the hurricane season comes closer, I think that balance might change.

Version: 13

I moved Colorado to the Dems due to the recent poll by Rasmussen.

Version: 12

The only way that can bring Florida to the Democrats, the way I see it, is a hurricane. It's hard to count on, however this year is expected to be rough, so we'll see.

Version: 11

Unforetunately, there is no concrete evidence that leads me to believe that Florida nor Colorado will turn to the Democrats this, however things can change.

California and Minnesota have been moved to the "toss-up".

Version: 6

I moved California to lean Democrat.

Version: 5

I changed Colorado moving it to the Dems.
However, Colorado is still deep in the "toss-up".

I moved Maryland from the "toss-up" to the "lean" for the Democrats.

Version: 4

I moved Arizona and Oklahoma to the "strong" because I assumed it would be rediculous not to. I was tempted to move Arkansas aswell but I didn't simply because i am more skeptical about states that change their governing party.

Version History

Member Comments

By: Eytan (D-ISR) - 2006-11-06 @ 10:51:21

Unfortunately, we really don't know much about the race in Idaho. It might flip.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	55/56	47/56	102/112	91.1%	10	0	47	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	19/33	50/66	75.8%	6	0	111	T	343
2012 Rep Primary	9/52	4/52	13/104	12.5%	3	-	206	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	2/4	6/8	75.0%	5	140	12	T	106
2010 Senate	37/37	23/37	60/74	81.1%	14	1	54	T	456
2010 Governor	31/37	20/37	51/74	68.9%	3	137	158	T	312
2008 President	53/56	46/56	99/112	88.4%	54	6	26	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	25/33	58/66	87.9%	23	6	5	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	11/11	22/22	100.0%	10	6	1	T	264
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	20	34	58	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	25/33	58/66	87.9%	69	1	10	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	26/36	61/72	84.7%	59	1	22	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	335/391	250/391	585/782	74.8%

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