PredictionsEndorse2006 Gubernatorial Predictions - BushCountry (I-IN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-06 Version:103

Prediction Map
BushCountry MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
BushCountry MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
36 |
50 |
Dem21
 
pie
Rep15
 
Ind0
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
36 |
50 |
Dem18
 
pie
Rep12
 
Ind0
 
Tos6
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+1+6+700013114+7
Rep000-1-6-712315-7
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
613328
piepiepie

Comments

Final Predictions!: Democrats take majority of Statehouses included critical Ohio, Colorado and New York.

Maine: Baldacci is bumbling at the end, he should win with a plurality, but this race has been unstable.

New Hampshire: Lynch by landslide.

Vermont: Douglas doesn't fail, wins with over 50%.

Massachusetts: Deval Patrick makes history, is elected first black governor of Bay State.

Rhode Island: Carcieri survives a scare and holds on for victory.

Connecticut: Rell will win and has the chance of breaking Rowland's record of 63% in 1998.

New York: They should've been engraving Spitzer's name on the governor's office months ago...not a contest by any means.

Pennsylvania: Swan is sunk, Rendell will win by several touchdowns.

Ohio: No sweat, Strickland takes Ohio for the Democrats, their sweetest win. Strickland will also sweep on his coattails a Senate seat and a couple of House seats too.

Michigan: DeVos is dead, Granholm easily pulls out a convincing win.

Maryland: This one will be a squeaker, but Ehrlich has the momentum. Ehrlich scrapes by in a major upset.

South Carolina: Sanford stays.

Georgia: Sonny Perdue wins and without Reed down ticket.

Florida: Davis is catching up, and the race is unstable, but Crist should be able to pull out a victory of at leats a couple of points.

Alabama: Riley recovered very early on and has since let comfortably.

Tennessee: This one is the biggest joke race of them all. Bredeson is in easily.

Illinois: Lincoln's Party flops again in Lincoln Land. Blagojevich will win, though he hardly earned it. With enemies like these, who needs friends?

Wisconsin: Close, but Doyle has never been behind. Doyle should win.

Minnesota: This one is up in the air, but with how badly the Republicans are doing down ticket here, I'm thinking Pawlenty is gonners.

Iowa: This race was consistently close till the very end and has since broken towards the Democrats.

Arkansas: The Democrats are back in Little Rock!

Texas: The most bizarre race in the nation, ends anticlimatically with a very low percentage win for Perry.

Oklahoma: Where Henry comes winning!

Kansas: Sebelius has been a shrewd operator and will be handsomely rewarded with a second term.

Nebraska: Heineman, and how!

South Dakota: Mike Rounds wins despite controversy. In fact it's been too quiet.

New Mexico: Richardson wins, but you already knew that.

Colorado: Apart from Ohio, this is the Democrats' second big snag. Ritter didn't fritter his lead away, the way O'Malley did.

Wyoming: Freudenthal will win a landslide after his initial squeaker.

Idaho: I don't know, but something tells me a surpise win here will be the icing on the cake for the Democrats.

Nevada: Gibbons has really screwed up what otherwise would've been a coronation. Titus has a chance, but my gambler's spirit tells me to bet on Gibbons.

Oregon: Kulongoski has benefitted from a crappy opponent. He'll win unimpressively.

Califorina: He'll be back! The Governator, just like in the 2003 original, comes back from a deficit to win convincingly. Hasta la vista Angelides!

Alaska: Pallin will win, but this race will be going on to the wee hours of the morning.

Hawaii: Lingle only has to worry about voters not showing up because she's so certain to win. But in a Democratic state like Hawaii, a Republican can't be too careless.










Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 102

At the end, Iowa goes decisively to the Democrats. But Ehrlich is pulling at exactly the last minute in Maryland.

Who knows what will happen in Minnesota, Idaho, or Nevada?


Version: 101

A few races that are very unstable right now: Maryland, Idaho, Nevada, and Minnesota. Hatch will most likely win Minnesota, but in the other three states, it's really a coin toss.


Version: 100

Suddenly, Butch Otter is in deep trouble and it's too late for the GOP to come rescue him.


Version: 99

Can Ehrlich pull it out at the finish line? He seems to be peaking just at the right time. O'Malley will be heartbroken...


Version: 98

The Nevada race has continued to tighten, suddenly at the finish line Titus is in striking distance. Maryland is also suddenly close after O'Malley's long stint on top. O'Malley will still win.


Version: 97

The Alaska race is tightening.


Version: 93

The Democrats only wish they could reproduct this level of sucess on the Senate side. Watch Florida, the race is tightening.


Version: 92

Kulongoski appears to be moving ahead in the campaigns final days.


Version: 90

Florida is surprisingly volatile.


Version: 88

Sanford looks to be safe afterall.


Version: 86

Republicans are slipping everywhere. Will be a good night for Democrats.


Version: 82

The Iowa race seems be going down to the wire. This one may be decided by a handful of votes. It has been so close for so long, I am really reluctant to put in either parties column, but am giving it to the Democrats here for the time being. The Democrats look to be right on track to take over the majority of mansions, though they're not doing as well as they were earlier in the year.


Version: 81

The Rhode Island race is all over the place. This will be one worth watching.


Version: 80

Iowa and Minnesota both have razor close races for governor, here they trade between parties, have no effect on the net balanace of power.


Version: 77

Oregon race is up for grabs right now.


Version: 74

Suddenly, Moore is rapidly gaining ground on incumbent Sanford in South Carolina. Stay tuned...


Version: 70

The Florida race seems to be tightening. I would not expect a blowout for the GOP here. But retaining this seat is critical for them.


Version: 68

The Minnesota race is volatile right now. It is very significant to both parties.


Version: 67

Democrats are doing well still in gubernatorial races.


Version: 66

Strange race going on in Texas. Perry's lead seems to be slipping somewhat but he still is way ahead due to the four way nature of the race. Could become more competitive though in the future.


Version: 64

Rhode Island is a close race to watch, very volatile. The Democrats have been staying within a band of +6 - +8 gains and so are looking at a good night. The Republicans still have some victories they can be proud of, especially holding onto Florida and California.


Version: 63

The Michigan race is very volatile. Democrats have been steadily maintaining a big lead, and can expect large gains.


Version: 59

The Alaska race has totally flipped around.


Version: 58

DeVos is back up in the Michigan see-saw race.


Version: 57

Democrats still very well in governors' races. Rhode Island is a volatile race.


Version: 55

Iowa continues it's record of being THE state for close, competitive races. This year it's governor race remains a real squeaker.


Version: 51

Blackwell is way far behind Strickland in Ohio. This will be a big win for the Democrats, even more so than Spitzer's crushing coronation in New York. The Democrats will turn two big states to their side in the gubernatorial match, while the GOP is turning none. Still the Republicans can take solace in the vitality of the Schwarzenegger campaign in California. His re-election in that state is an upset in and of itself.


Version: 50

The Rhode Island race is one to watch for an upset, right now the Republican is improbably pulling back ahead.


Version: 47

The governors race in Maine has the potential to be an upset, worth watching.


Version: 45

Granholm is pulling ahead in Michigan.


Version: 39

The Florida could get more competitive.


Version: 38

The Michigan race may be the key one to watch. It's neck and neck with Granholm making up the difference. However, Schwarzenegger will hold California.


Version: 36

Democrats still do very well this year across the country, netting 6 seats, but GOP prospect have improved slightly. Mainly Schwarzenneger continues to better than he was doing before. Holding this seat will be huge for the GOP.


Version: 33

The Minnesota race is a competitive one that will prove crucial to both parties. In fact, with a competitive Senate race, and one or two interesting House races, Minnesota is the state to watch this year.


Version: 32

Democrats look to do very well this year. +8 is their highest pickup level here on this prediction map. Many incumbents go down. Rhode Island is another race that is very volatile. Democrats will get a big boost by taking over the New York and California seats.


Version: 30

California race is very volatile. Democrats are looking very solid, when before it looked as though they might be slipping in the gubernatorial races. Still a few of their own do go down.


Version: 29

As befits the current climate, alot of incumbents go down. However, some of them are Democrats too. Still the Dems have enough to have a majority of the governorships, key in presidential races.


Version: 28

The California race is volatile.


Version: 27

More bad news for the GOP, incumbent Pawlenty is slipping behind in Minnesota.


Version: 25

Although things are still very ugly for the Republicans, their prospects have improved of late, most notably in Florida a state that they must retain.


Version: 24

Republicans are still struggling but Carcieri might just pull out a re-election in Rhode Island, making the election results a bit easier to swallow.


Version: 23

The Michigan race is very volatile. Maine is now back on the radar as a possible GOP pickup. However Wisconisn may be slipping away from them.


Version: 22

Michigan and California are the big and contentious races to watch.


Version: 21

The Democrats seem to be looking at gains between 6-8 seats. Many races are volatile. Michigan will be a big one worth watching. If the GOP can take this, they wont feel so badly about losing Ohio.


Version: 20

Dems seem to be doing better and better, but they have a vulnerable seat in Michigan. The Michigan race will be one of the top three to watch on election night, along with California.


Version: 18

Michigan is shaping up to be the best pick up oportunity for the GOP. Still it's a glimmer in a sea of otherwise bad news this election cycle.


Version: 17

The Democrats have continued to improve. In key Colorado, the Republicans have fallen behind and thus will cap off a very bad gubanatorial election for the Republicans.


Version: 16

This reflects a new dynamic in the gubanatorial races. As I predicted earlier, the Alaska race has become a steal for the Democrats. However the Republicans can match tit-for-tat in the Wisconsin race by unseating Doyle. Still this is shaping up to be a good year for the Democrats in Governorships, especially with Spitzer picking New York by a landslide.


Version: 15

The California race will be one of the more interesting races to watch.


Version: 14

Republicans have been on the run on both coasts here. Things look bad for Schwarzenegger.


Version: 13

Democrats seem to be improving all over country in the race for governors mansions. It looks like it should be a good year for them. Iowa looks like a solid hold and now it seems like the Democrats will retain Illinois and take over Florida.


Version: 12

The Florida race is looking more volatile. Earlier it had appeared to be a runnaway victory for Charlie Crist. Now it is more competitive. Republicans badly want to hang on to this one.


Version: 9

Granholm is perhaps the second most endangered Democrat incumbent aside from Blagojevich in Illinois. Right now I see a shift heading towards DeVos. Still this good news for the GOP will be hampered by losses from coast to coast and resulting in a net gain of 5 seats for the Democrats.


Version: 8

Alot of solidification going on among incumbents. Sonny Perdue in Georgia always looked like the likely winner, now he's sure bet at Pennsylvania Rendell seems to have gain significant ground in his quest for re-election.


Version: 7

Democrats keep looking better and better. Baldacci has retaken the lead in Maine, a solid lead too. Meanwhile Riley has gone great lengths to get out in front in Alabama. Now the Democrats are up to a six seat gainin 2006, their highest ever in this prediction series.


Version: 6

Lynch is cruising in New Hampshire. Colorado should be a key race to watch. I see the Republicans holding the seat, but barely.


Version: 5

Democrats seem to be gaining in Rhode Island. It should be a race worth watching if trends continue. A well run race should net this one for the Dems, making their gubernatorial prospects look even brighter.


Version: 4

At this Schwarzenegger seems to be slipping, looking like a Democrat takeover. The Wisconsin race is getting tighter as well but I think Doyle will prevail.


Version: 3

Strickland appears to be running away with the governors race in Ohio. Still at this point Republicans are doing better than I expected all around. This could change however, but for now I see the Dems making a three seat gain.


Version: 2

Murkowski is in danger, but until there another viable candidate against him. He still wins. Otherwise nothing else has changed much.


Version: 1

John Baldacci's lackluster performance is not a good sign so early in the race, he wont survive. Rell's going to win in the largest landslide in Connecticut history. The Democrats will finally take back Massachussetts but in a tough three way race. The Democrats will easily take New York. Rendell will win a hard fought race in PA. Ehrilich will probably lose in Maryland. The GOP is in chaos in Ohio and the Democrats will win comfortably. Granholm survives in Michigan. Blagojevich is finished in Illinois however. Pawlenty prevails in Minnesota, but with less than 50%. Wisconsin stays Democrat but barely. Mysterious and complex races in Colorado and Iowa, both go to wire, but the incumbent parties win in both cases. The Terminator will win CA, but not as magnificently as last time. Arkansas is going to go Democrat in a big way. Alaska is more competitive than people think and I'm predicting that the Democrats will take this one.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 33/35 23/35 56/70 80.0% pie 46 4 42T
P 2018 Governor 32/36 18/36 50/72 69.4% pie 45 6 226T
P 2016 President 51/56 38/56 89/112 79.5% pie 63 1 17T
P 2016 Senate 32/34 24/34 56/68 82.4% pie 55 1 1
P 2016 Governor 10/12 6/12 16/24 66.7% pie 25 1 25T
P 2014 Senate 33/36 26/36 59/72 81.9% pie 34 1 42T
P 2014 Governor 30/36 16/36 46/72 63.9% pie 31 0 123T
P 2012 President 52/56 41/56 93/112 83.0% pie 157 0 401T
P 2012 Senate 30/33 20/33 50/66 75.8% pie 66 0 111T
P 2012 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 21 0 5T
P 2012 Rep Primary 42/52 18/52 60/104 57.7% pie 105 - 41T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 5 0 37T
P 2010 Senate 35/37 26/37 61/74 82.4% pie 93 2 34T
P 2010 Governor 34/37 25/37 59/74 79.7% pie 94 1 59T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 14 1 1T
P 2008 President 52/56 42/56 94/112 83.9% pie 183 1 115T
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 101 1 28T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 43 1 86T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 8 2 58T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 31/33 24/33 55/66 83.3% pie 94 1 46T
P 2006 Governor 33/36 28/36 61/72 84.7% pie 103 1 22T
P 2004 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 140 2 49T
Aggregate Predictions 646/705 459/705 1105/1410 78.4% pie


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