Comments History
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hideVersion: 43
Basically nothing changes on this update map of mine.
Except that most polls and pundits are agreeing with me.
And many are agreeing with me, that Titus very well could be a surprise Democratic winner in Nevada, especially with the ethical problems with Congressman Gibbons and continuing problems for the GOP in the two vulnerable Congressional seats (including Gibbons' third). The only thing that GOP have going for them, outright, in Nevada is the U.S. Senate race.
Version: 42
Saw a new poll that shows Chet Culver is recovering in Iowa, 46% to 39% against Nussle.
Also, moved down the re-elect #'s for Perry (or as I like to call Bushlite) in Texas, since another polls shows Perry at 33% and Strayhorn at 20%, with Friedman and Bell tied at 14%. Stayhorn also looks like she's making it a real race against Perry from the look of www.politics1.com. And if Friedman bails, Strayhorn might just benefit.
Version: 41
This update will hold, at least, until October 24th.
Moved Iowa into the lean column for Nussle. Now, I think Nussle will be one of the few GOP U.S. House members running who will win a higher statewide office (most will go down into defeat that are doing that). Nussle's first seems to be leaning more and more towards GOP Whalen (Democrat Braley seems to have made too many mistakes to be able to move this, what should be more competitive seat to the Democratic column).
Still believe in the end that Doyle in Wisconsin will have better re-elect #'s than what is being seen in the polls (GOP Green will have it not as good as Nussle).
Still believe the DFL being so united this time in Minnesota will pay off in not only a win for Hatch, but one of the highest turnover (from GOP to Democratic) rates for the whole state in the nation (there might be other states that are highter).
And still believe the one of the major surprises, not only in the Governor races, but nationwide, will be the win for Democrat Dina Titus in Nevada, but keeping it a tossup until more #'s come in.
On October 24th, I will probably have my first U.S. House predictions listed on my Senate map.
Version: 40
Not many changes, but ...
Moved Iowa and Minnesota back into the Democratic column, as the Democrats do better nationally, as well as on a state level -- at least many states.
Surprisingly strong polls for Hatch, DFL against Pawlenty, R. Don't believe Hatch will win with over 50%, but with a plurality. The fact that polls have them even is a good sign for Hatch, bad sign for Pawlenty.
Iowa is still close, but still believe that the majority of Iowa voters will not vote for a GOP Congressman for Governor (Nussle), and instead go for Secretary of State Culver.
Michigan is still close, but still believe that Granholm will pull it out and win with pretty good margin.
Maryland is also still close, but I still think that mayor O'Malley, D. will take incumbent Ehrlich, R.
Moved Palin, R. into a stronger win over former Governor Knowles, D. More hints of a year of the woman II, that even helps the sole GOP woman running for Governor in this state.
Still am convinced that Titus, D. will be the surprise winner in Nevada, and she's still not that far behind (even with geography not favoring at this point).
Version: 39
Palin, R. is doing better than I thought she might in Alaska, against Knowles, D.
I still think then that all the women running or re-running for Governor in Novemeber will win, this includes Granholm, D. in Michigan & the surprising, Titus, D. in Nevada. Another year of the Women.
Version: 38
I'm leaving this map open for discussion and comments, because I might have more time to participate with this map, unlike my Senate map.
Mainly made changes to percentages and confidence on many candidates, especially once vulnerable incumbents such as Schwarzenegger, R. and Granholm, D. (both of which are the most surprising to me, at least).
Perry, R., in Texas, is the major change in percentages.
And I have switched Nevada to a tossup, as evident in most recent polls, and now really do believe that state Senate minority leader Dina Titus, D. has a good chance of becoming another woman governor (and the only pickup on that front) by defeating Congressman Jim Gibbons, R. This would fit in with my continual thought that GOP Congressional members running for the Senate and Governorships are in the worse possible position, with the current climate of feelings about the Congress and the current President. The only thing that might hurt Titus, to do what might have seemed impossible months ago, is the weakness of U.S. Senate candidate Jack Carter, D. vs. incumbent Ensign, R.
Version: 37
Again, not a lot a time to comment, for now.
Latest polls show that Democratic incumbent Kulongoski in Oregon is having a better year than many had predicted and better than voters were indicating in polls earlier this year.
Version: 36
Again, as with my current Senate map, don't have a lot of time to comment.
Current map in response to new polls in Maine. Baldacci isn't a goner afterall.
Still think this will be the outcome in November, even California.
Version: 35
Okay, went ahead and did what I told ryer (see past comments) what I was going to do and turn Minnesota to a Republican lean for Pawlenty to be re-elected.
Not that any current polls indicate that happening, but I think that the filing for the Democratic-Farmer Laborer for Governor (which happened, yesterday) primary remind me of what happened here in Georgia with the Democratic primary for Governor, and now we are starting to see a hint of the results of that, with Perdue doing much better in his primary (although his opposition didn't amount to much) then his Democratic opponent (Taylor; although to Mark Taylor's credit winning that primary outright without a runoff is amazing, considering where Cathy Cox started out in the beginning as in the lead; I still think though that Taylor is going to have a tougher road against Perdue than Cox would have).
Not that Pawlenty is as popular as Perdue, but Pawlenty does get the nod, just a bit, starting out (and with a primary and possibly divisive one for the Democratic Farmer-Laborer candidates) for being the incumbent.
I wouldn't say this will affect the good chances for Amy Klobuchar, DFL for the U.S. Senate.
This limits the Democratic gains to seven seats in the Governorships, not bad, still.
Tossups are now down to 2: California and Iowa.
Version: 34
Two changes since last map, actually one poll number, and the other news:
That SC GOP state Senator Jake Knotts who was collecting signatures to run as an independent against Sanford, dropped his bid, although he collected more than enough signatures (13,000 when he needed only 10,000). Knotts also stated he didn't think he'd be funded well enough to but up a decent fight. Although this helps Sanford, I made it only back to a lean for him, because I still think this shows his weaknesses amongst Republicans, but I doubt that Moore, D. will be able to take an advantage of that.
A new Colorado Denver Post poll on the Governor's race makes me think that Ritter, D. will win easily, even though we haven't had the primary there, yet. And that Congressman Beauprez may face what many GOP members of Congress running for statewide office are probably facing, and that is the sour mood of the electorate against both Bush and the GOP led Congress:
Ritter, D. 42% Beauprez, R. 35%
Down to three tossups:
California, Iowa and Minnesota.
Version: 33
Moved California back into the Democrats column with the new Rasmussen polls showing 46 to 44% lead for the Democrat, also shows Feinstein way out ahead with 60% (although, I think she might get less than that). Still left it on my confidence map as tossup. Whoever wins won't win it above 50%.
Version: 32
1. Again, because of the proposed (needing 10,000 signatures by July 17) of the the conservative Republican state Rep., in South Carolina, independent run for Governor against Sanford, moved South Carolina into lean Democratic column for state Sen. Tommy Moore with him winning with a plurality of between 37 to 40% of the vote (all that would be needed).
Did some more tweaking (readjusted some figures both on my prediction map and confidence map), and a few changes, due to reading a little more on the races:
1. Moved Alaska to strong Knowles, D. win, between 50 to 60% as the GOP tear themselves apart in the primary, and this won't even help Palin. Former state Rep. Andrew Halco,R.'s independent run won't help the GOP in this usual GOP safe state.
2. Moved Maine to strong Democratic to lean Republican after seeing anemic poll numbers for Baldacci, D. Just perhaps U.S. Senator Olympia Snowe, R. being re-elected by a very healthy margin can help to pull up state Senator Chandler E. Woodcock, R. into the Governor's mansion, even though Snowe and Woodcock are nothing a like. With Snowe being more liberal, and Woodcock being a Baptist minister (although he is a high school teacher, but some of the most conservative folks I've ever met are high school teachers). Businesswoman and radio talk show host Pat LaMarche's Green party run also won't help Baldacci.
3. Moved Maryland into strong Democratic win column. O'Malley, D. choice of running mate, A.G. Brown was one of the more brilliant moves this year nationwide. Ehrlich can't expect the same help from Kristen Cox. Still don't believe the race will be determined by the U.S. Senate election. Don't think the Green party candidate will adversly affect O'Malley winning outright.
4. Moved Massachusetts into strong Democratic win column. I expect if the nominee is Deval Patrick (which looks increasingly likely, and that's probably great for the Democrats) that he will win in a landslide over Healey, R.
5. Flipped Michigan back to being Granholm, D. winning slightly, and lean it back to Democratic. Think Granholm has weathered some storms. And if Ahnold is re-elected in California, then I don't see why Granholm can not be re-elected in Michigan.
6. Flipped Minnesota back to an ever so slight win for Hatch, DFL (defeating incumbent Pawlenty, R.), but the state goes back to being a tossup until after the September primary.
7. Wisconsin goes from being lean Democratic win to strong Democratic win, with Congressman Green, R. not doing to well, and incumbent Doyle, D. being stronger in recent polls than expected. Doyle should be able to be defeated by Green, but I think two things will not help Green: 1. With Green being part of the GOP establishment in D.C., this won't help him. 2. U.S. Senator Kohl, D. will help pull up Doyle.
Tossup states limited down to four (4):
California, Colorado, Iowa and Minnesota. California and Iowa due to fluctuations in polls. Colorado and Minnesota because of primaries that have not occured, yet.
I would say my next update on this map, won't be until late September, promise.
Version: 31
Updating with the news from South Carolina, on Friday, that conservative Republican state Senator Jake Knotts announced his intention to run as an independent for Governor, with the Lt. Governor who is not fond of Sanford encouraging him to do so. He needs 10,000 signatures, by July 17 (certainly doable, if Democrats are willing to help), to get on the ballott as an independent. I think this would help state Senator Tommy Moore the Democrat running, and Moore could win by a simple majority of below 40% down to about 37% of the vote.
Version: 30
Darn had to put California back in tossup, with a prediction that Ahnold will keep the Governorship. If you he does though, it's only because of the Los Angeles mayor's actions, and it will be with less that 50% re-election.
Again, September might change all of this.
And a six seat gain in Governorships is still respectable for the Democrats.
Version: 29
Things become more clearer on my confidence map, despite some primaries not happening, yet.
Moved Kansas, Oklahoma and Wyoming on my confidence map to being confirmed Democratic wins for the incumbents there.
My birth state and former home state of Florida goes to strong Republican, as Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher, from Coconut Grove near Miami, one of the top tier GOP candidates faulter. This will mean that state AG Charlie Christ of St. Petersburg will be the GOP nominee with very little stopping him.
After the September primary, this will set up a race between Christ, R. and U.S. Congressman Jim Davis, D.- Tampa, and since the election for Governor will be decided along the I-4 corridor in the middle of the state, this will help Christ the most over Davis in a state becoming increasingly more GOP, except with the senior U.S. Senate seat that Bill Nelson will keep.
Kept everything else on my map the same, I still say that the Democratic incumbents in Illinois, Oregon and Wisconsin (despite some bad poll numbers and leadership issues will still win, in the end, possibly close ones, but still winning), and Maine to that list, although I expect the Democratic incumbent to win big there, despite his recent troubles. Likewise the Republican incumbents in Alabama, Minnesota, Texas and Vermont.
I think I will go back in though and add to the list of tossup states of Iowa and Rhode Island (Iowa because of bouncing polls that are difficult to figure out this state, I still say Democrat Culver will win, because the Iowa voters will not want to elect a Republican Congressman Nussle to the job with some of the concerns about Republicans in D.C. these days), but will add Alaska, Colorado and Maryland to tossup column until August and September primaries are over in those states.
Version: 28
Because of the June 27, Zogby/Wall Street Journal poll, in Iowa, showing Congressman Nussle, R. ahead of state AG Chet Culver, D. ever so slightly, 47.5% to 45% (although not with an insurmountable lead), and the fact there are some third party candidates running (a Green and Libratarian {sp?} candidate) moved Iowa to a prediction of a below 50% win Culver, and moved into tossup in my confidence map (which now includes Iowa, Florida and Rhode Island as tossups).
I still think that Culver will win, in the end, but perhaps not with a majority above 50%. Although, the Gubernatorial election in Iowa bears watching, since this was a state that went for G.W. Bush in the Presidential election in 2004, after nearly two decades (1988 when Dukakis won there) of being nearly solidly Democratic at the Presidential level.
Still think Illinois, Maine, Oregon and Wisconsin voters will re-elect incumbent Democrats (four states that went for Kerry).
Sometime in the near future, I would expect myself to solidify on my confidence map the wins of Democratic incumbents in Kansas, Oklahoma and Wyoming (despite all three states -- along with Arizona, New Mexico and Tennessee which I already have re-electing their Democratic Governors -- going for Bush in '04), because I still haven't seen any polls showing them losing, but I want to wait to make sure. Wouldn't expect I'd do that until either mid-July to late August. And then no more changes until late September.
Version: 27
Only changes on this map, which I will leave open for comment are:
Moved Connecticut and Georgia into, on my confidence map, to strong GOP. For Connecticut it is because of the split in the Democratic party for the U.S. Senate nomination. For Georgia it is because Taylor and Cox are going against each other like cats and dogs on the TV airwaves. I think whichever wins the nomination is going to be very much weakened against Perdue after the July 18th primary. And if it is Taylor, as it increasingly looking like, Perdue and company are going to really go after gutting Taylor (Cox' charges are nothing compared to what Perdue will find). Cox would be stronger against Perdue, but I think Cox' mistakes in the Democratic primary will cost her the nomination.
Florida and Rhode Island are left tossup, because of the still to come primaries there.
Agree there are still other primaries to come, but I'm basing this on polls conducted overtime (as I have with the Senate races) in the various states as is listed on Wikipedia's article about the various races.
Before I get slammed do let me explain in some states what I mean about the last sentence (paragraph):
Overtime it has been shown that the Democratic candidates (during this election cycle) in states such as Arkansas (open GOP seat), Colorado (open GOP seat), Iowa (open Democratic seat), Massachusetts (open GOP seat), New York (open GOP seat) and Ohio (open GOP seat) have been ahead, again overtime. (The averages of polls). The only two states where this has been in opposition, with the potential GOP candidates being ahead (with a retiring GOP incumbent) are in Idaho and Nevada.
Overtime (again averages of polls) have seen, in the election cycle that in Alaska {although I could easily change the outcome here, if incumbent Murkowski loses in the primary, Palin would be stronger GOP nominee against most likely Democratic nominee and former Governor Knowles -- the Alaska GOP would be wise to chose Palin for their nominee}, California and Maryland that the incumbent GOP Governors are behind. (I still am betting on the outcome being that the incumbents in the states, Michigan {Democratic} and California {GOP} from other countries and not U.S. citizens will lose for re-election in the current climate we are in). Michigan is also the only state where I can forecast that a Democratic incumbent will lose (the polls during this election cycle have shown that incumbent not doing very well).
Otherwise in the other states the incumbents of either party have been running ahead of their opponents or potential opponents, overtime. This includes the once vulnerable Democratic incumbents in Illinois, Maine, Oregon and Wisconsion, and the once vulnerable GOP incumbent in Minnesota (even if his approval ratings hit only to 51% {still ahead of President Bush's}; in the last poll Hatch is ahead of Pawlenty by a not insurmountable 5% -- 47% to 42%, and at one poll in the past Hatch was ahead by 10% -- although in another only by 1% -- and Pawlenty has been ahead by a rather healthy margin in the other three polls in the recent past -- so I still have to give this one to Pawlenty -- in a state that voters often split their ballots).
The other states with incumbents of either party, have incumbents who have been running rather healthily ahead of either the opposition candidate or potential candidates.
Except for perhaps in Texas, for obvious reasons, but I still, at this point, give it to GOP incumbent Perry -- if only slightly.
I think in the current climate of doubt about the GOP and President Bush, and also a six-year cycle, I think this map of a rather modest, but respectable, seven seat pickup for the Democrats in the Governorship contests is fairly reasonable, and not beyond the reach of what will happen on November 7th.
I promise, the next update won't be until the end of September (and that will probably be my final map, and yes, MLEFLO1 and others more GOP inclined, at that time I might be persuaded to change a lot of things especially if polls show things differently).
Version: 26
Although I kept Florida and Rhode Island being won by or kept by a GOP Governor, moved them back on my confidence map to tossup category.
Version: 25
I moved Wisconsin back in to the Democratic/Jim Doyle column because of two factors, one is the fact that a recent poll has him significantly ahead, the other is coming back from my family's reunion there are some factors that might be shaping up in Wisconsin from just seeing relatives from that state.
For now, I can't respond to comments, so I'm going to let this go without letting comments go on.
Version: 24
I moved Texas down to a below 40%, to above 30% win for Perry, with the re-airing of the Kinky Friedman interview on "60 Minutes".
Moved Florida back to a Republican win, with Crist ahead of Gallagher for the GOP nomination in most polls. AG Crist, R. from St. Petersburg would be able to defeat Congressman Davis, D. from Tampa, if this is a normal election (the only thing that would change this outcome, is if there is a really bad hurricane, or if Harris really drags down the whole ticket, which I'm not sure would happen; many Floridians are happy with splitting their tickets).
For MLEFLO1, Inks, was right, in Minnesota, in the last polls incumbent Pawlenty, R. was ahead of Hatch by 8%. Also, in Minnesota, the Democratic Farmer-Laborer party was very split on who they wanted to be the gubernatorial nominee.
I still think Granholm isn't really having great poll numbers, even if in some she is slightly ahead.
I'm still thinking of one other scenario, that both incumbent Governors from other countries, and not U.S. citizens (For the Democrats: Granholm; for Republicans: Ahnold) will go down in defeat, in the current climate we are in.
Version: 23
Decided to follow Andy, D-IL's lead, and finally create a final map, with not tossups.
Several differences with Andy's map.
Florida goes Democratic for Governorship.
Michigan and Wisconsin's Granholm and Doyle lose to GOP candidates. I would believe that Congressman Mark Green in Wisconsin is a credible threat to Doyle.
Pawlenty stays in in Minnesota with the Democrats split.
Curious to see what others say, myself, about this map.
Version: 21
Moved Michigan back into a win for DeVos, R., but still want to wait to see if that current poll holds over time. Perhaps Granholm, D. needed to be on the airwaves sooner?
Also went ahead and moved Wisconsin into tossup category, only because of the recent polls that raise doubts for Doyle's re-election chances, and the primaries not until September.
Version: 18
Okay, moved my prediction map to the best case scenario for the Democrats. In this scenario, predicated on something someone else wrote, the fact that Michigan incumbent Granholm has not aired any TV ads, and the best GOP DeVos can do is run only one point ahead of her does not bode well for DeVos. I am moving Michigan into the tossup column to see what develops in the months ahead.
Then later this morning moved Minnesota back to a win for the GOP and Pawlenty on the news on politics1.com that the Democratic-Farmer Laborer party is starting to implode in the Gubernatorial race.
Version: 17
Flipped Alaska to lean Democratic with the news that former Governor Tony Knowles is going to run against weak incumbent Frank Murkowski and the other major Democrats are bowing out.
And moved Arkansas back to a Democratic pickup, but stays in tossup category. This is partly out of some of the people on this site's commentary. Partly out of the fact that no polls is showing Asa Hutchinson, R. ahead of Mike Beebe, D., yet, and partly out of the thought this might be a huge Democratic year, not only for the Senate or the House.
Version: 16
It might be close (meaning less than 60%, but definitely above 50%), but I don't think it will be as close as last week's polls showed.
What I'm talking about is the new L.A. Times poll for the California gubernatorial election in California, showing Schwarzenegger losing to either of the two main Democrats 40% to 50%. (I think either Westley or Angelides will take Ahnold out). This is after the week of both Enron execs (or ex-execs) Lay and I'm forgetting the other ones name being found guilty, and then the subsequent stories coming out that Enron set in motion the blackouts in 2000 - 2001 - 2002 as a deliberate way for Ahnold to come in to defeat former Governor Gray Davis, D. in the recall stupidity of 2003. Now, that's coming back to roost for Ahnold, and good riddance -- as all the California voters becoming disenchated with the "Terminator"!
Version: 15
Decided to flip Arkansas Gubernatorial race to the GOP column, because of some concern coming out of the Tuesday primary. Not anything necessary against Attorney General Beebe, D. or even for former Homeland Security Undersecretary, former Congressman and former DEA Administrator Asa Hutchinson, R., but more a sense several things below them running for the office might affect the outcome:
1. There is a Green and independent candidate that are running to the left of Beebee, that might take votes away from him
2. Democratic runoffs for Lt. Governor, Attorney General and state Treasurer might just divide the Democrats.
3. Two Democrats in Congress are in a bit more difficult races than thought previously:
1st: Robert Marion Berry, D. &
2nd: Victor "Vic" F. Snyder, D.
Version: 14
I think the latest Survey USA poll on the Texas Governor's race, is being reported wrong on this site, as being for the U.S. Senate race there.
But on politics1.com, it has it as the Governor's race, and incumbent Perry has a rather good advantage (although still in the low 40's):
Perry, R. 41%
Strayhorn, i 20%
Bell, D. 18%
Friedman, i 16%
So, flipping Texas to lean Republican, with most likely vote total in November.
Still not a good year for the Republicans overall; but tossups still in Alabama, California, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota and Vermont which all have primaries that could potentially shift things (Colorado and Wisconsin do as well but still leaning them towards the Democrats).
Version: 13
Moved Colorado back to Lean Democratic, with the news of the split between the two GOP candidates Congressman Bob Beauprez and former Denver University President Marc Holtzman, at the State Convention, and the fact Beauprez has yet to pick a running mate.
Democratic candidate, former Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter will be able to take advantage of the GOP rift.
Version: 12
Just going to leave Florida as a tossup, because of the primary not until September. The rest of this map, stays the same as I left it on Saturday.
Updating my confidence map, again, to reflect the fact that I think the fact that Strayhorn's son, former White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan is going to be able to help his mom win (and to screw a bit with the administration he formerly worked in). Texas leans independent on the confidence map.
The last comments I wrote, about the changes on Saturday, May 20th can be found through the past comments made section (Comments History).
This leaves, for now, only five states as tossups in the Gubernatorial races:
Alabama
California
Iowa
Minnesota
Vermont
And three of those states have primaries coming up in the next few weeks, so this map will shift again, fairly soon; and inch ever closer to my final prediction; barring changes in primaries that I have a lean for either party with the primaries from July to September.
Version: 11
Okay updated my map again, with a couple of changes, and changes a bit in thought. The Democrats do even better, overall.
Granholm, D. will still lose in Michigan. Ahnold loses in California, but there is still the primary in early June to go. Moved whichever, Angelides, D. or Westley, D. as the Democratic candidate, them winning but with below 50% due to the other candidates in the race (more definite on this after the June primaries). Texas elects it's first independent woman Governor, Strayhorn, but it's tight and below 40% of the vote. Also lowered Oregon's Democratic incumbent Kulongoski winning re-election below 50% because of the Pacific Green and independent candidates in the race.
In Georgia, GOP incumbent Perdue wins, although more closely than one might expect. Secretary of State Cox, D who I had been supporting suffered foot and mouth disease badly this week, over a judges ruling on the gay marriage amendment passed by the legislature. She'll bleed support from Feingold Progressive Democrats such as me, here in the state of Georgia. Lt. Governor Taylor, D. will win the nomination (unfortunately), and Perdue and the GOP will open him like a nut. (I want to get out of this state).
In Massachusetts, turned a win by Lt. Governor Healey, into a Democratic win for either Deval Patrick or Tom Reilly (I'm leaning that it will be Reilly, but I don't want to really predict that for certain). The Democratic nominee though won't get above 40% in this usually very reliable Democratic states, with a Green and strong independent candidate in the mix.
In Florida, I'm still predicting that the Democrats will come together easier than the GOP after the early September primary. Tampa Congressman Jim Davis, D. (who I so wish I could vote for, by going back to my home and birth state of Florida, but only for this election) choses as his running mate, state Senator Rod Smith, D. from Gainesville who was his rival in the primary. Senator Nelson will have some effect on making the primary not as decisive as the Democratic Gubernatorial primary will be in some other states (especially Georgia), and that will help all involved. Unfortunately I think that the Republicans will chose as their nominee state Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher, from Coconut Grove over Attorney General Charles Crist from St. Petersburg. And Gallagher will chose Crist as his running mate (in a similiar attempt at kiss and make up). Unfortunately with more voters being from the I-4 corridor in the middle of the state, this will help Davis from that area over Gallagher. (Also possible effecting the outcome, not only in the Gubernatorial states, but also in the U.S. Senate races is if the hurricane season ends up being as costly as the last one in 2005; stay tuned for that). Davis/Smith though won't get above 50% of the vote, in November, due to having a Libertarian candidate in the race.
Version: 10
Decided to lean Colorado over to the GOP, because of polls (and I think there are people on this site that are probably correct about Colorado). As for which candidate wins the primary or the election that's a different matter.
This is still good and promising for Democrats to make a six seat gain in Governorships (they will control the majority).
Still awaiting the primary results in Alabama, California, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Minnesota and Vermont before deciding to take them out of the tossup column or move them to the other party winning the Governorship. Also of course other issues might still come into play (both on a state-by-state basis and nationally). Think this map represents my best "guestimation" of what will happen in November.
Just updating my confidence map -- Ohio -- with the latest Rasmussen poll that shows Strickland ahead of Blackwell, 52 to 36%. Ohio maybe going into the same terroritory as Pennsylvania is. Waiting though to see the latest poll results in the Ohio Senate race to determine that.
Version: 9
Things become more clear in several states, and a couple of shifts in thinking for me.
1. In Alaska, Connecticut and Hawaii those states are leaning Republican because of the incumbency factor, and the Democrats are more split, plus some independent candidacies that would help the GOP over the Democrats.
2. Illinois is leaning towards incumbent Democrat Blagovich (even with some inclination that he supposedly not popular) over challenger Topinka because third party candidacies there are much more likely to hurt the GOP.
3. Kansas is leaning towards incumbent Democrat Sebellius because the Republican primary looks like it probably will get nasty, and the GOP looks way too split up to take advantage of any weekness with Sebellius (even in a usually strong Republican state).
4. Inks will like me, today, and for now. Because I've leaned Michigan going to DeVos, R. over Granholm, D. (wish it weren't so), because saw on politics1.com that they were the only two file. DeVos also has the bucks to compete. I also will tell Inks, in such a setup, Detroit won't help Granholm any (a matter of fact, I won't be surprised to hear and read that some Detroit voters skipped this race), and the successful candidacy to be re-elected of Senator Stabenow, D. won't help pull up Granholm, D.
5. Massachusetts leans towards Lt. Governor Kerry Healey, R. despite it being an usual strong Democratic state because she is a woman, and third party candidacies may hurt the Democrats more, also the primary with the Democrats still has much potential to turn nasty.
6. Keeping the thought that Texas will go, in the end or close, to GOP turned independent Strayhorn.
7. Ohio and Maryland are leaned towards Democrats because of unpopular GOP incumbents. Democrats in Ohio are united behind the candidacy of a candidate that appeals to many GOP voters as well: Congressman Ted Strickland. Although the primary hasn't occurred yet in Maryland, Democrats look stronger, and I think they will unite to defeat Ehrlich who doesn't even have a Lt. Governor running mate to replace Michael Steele who is running for Senate. Do believe still the successful Democrat will be: Baltimore mayor Michael O'Malley.
8. Still believe that the issue of President Bush putting National Guard troops on the border with Mexico will adversely affect the Governorship races in Arizona, California, New Mexico and in his home state of Texas against the GOP candidates (including incumbents Ahnold in CA, and Perry in TX) and will make them Democratic or in the case of Texas independent.
9. Maine, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Wyoming (will have to go back shortly and plug Oregon into that mix) all re-elect Democratic incumbents, even with only four of those seven voting for Kerry for President in 2004, only because of the power of incumbency, some things going against the GOP candidacies and because polling numbers are not convincing me otherwise as of now.
10. The same holds true, in reverse, with Alaska, Connecticut, Idaho, Hawaii, Nebraska, Rhode Island, and South Carolina plus with Nevada electing a GOP Governor to replace an outgoing GOP incumbent.
11. Leaving Texas as a tossup in my confidence map because of the unpredicatability of that state.
12. Hoping and still believe that the recent poll showing that in Minnesota Attorney General Mike Hatch, DFL is 10% ahead of incumbent GOP Governor Pawlenty is not a fluke.
12. Alabama, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Minnesota and Vermont as tossups, in my confidence map, because they haven't had primaries, yet. But as of now, everyone can see what I think will probably happen. As more primaries come and go, these become less and less, and primary voting patterns (especially in Governors election, I actually think less true in Senate races, show a key to what will happen in November -- that is why I need to go ahead back, briefly, and shade in Oregon Democratic in my confidence map because of the results of Tuesdays primaries). I expect no change in this map until after the June primaries in Alabama, California and Iowa.
Version: 8
Okay, royer and Inks, I have made changes to my Gubernatorial map, that I think you might agree with, and maybe I could see as the final outcome, but with some caveats.
This map is based on my opinion that the majority of incumbent Governors will be re-elected and partly based on most polls, or is not out of the realm of most polls out there.
Yes, on this map even the close, in the polls, Democrats: Blagovich in Illinois, Baldacci in Maine and yes, Inks, Granholm in Michigan are re-elected; although notice on my confidence map that I still have them to be tossups. I will grant you that royer.
And also don't forget, by your model, royer, all three of those states did go for Kerry in 2004.
Now, I do have only four incumbent GOP Governors being defeated:
1. You already know, my opinion, is Perry in Texas, because of the split in the GOP vote due to Strayhorn's independent run.
2. Ahhhhnold in California is defeated. California went for Kerry in '04. I also think that the outcome in California (as with in Arizona, New Mexico and Texas may now be driven, as well, by President Bush putting National Guard on border patrol. I have a gut feeling that that will not sit well with the majority in those four border states.
3. Maryland went to Kerry in '04; Ehrlich has not been that popular.
4. Minnesota went to Kerry in '04; Hatch, DFL, was running 10% ahead of GOP incumbent Pawlenty, R.
All other Democratic incumbents are re-elected, that were at one point considered vulnerable:
1. Rendell in Pennsylvania (went to Kerry in '04)
2. Doyle in Wisconsin (went to Kerry in '04)
3. Kulongski (sp?) in Oregon (went to Kerry in '04)
Of course there are exceptions to this rule for both parties, of which '04 Presidential candidates won, determine who wins the next Governorship election, but I would assume and assume strongly the way things are going right now that this will be more beneficial to the Democrats than to the Republicans.
Exceptions to that the opposite way are, Lingle in Hawaii, the Governors in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Vermont (forgetting all of their names right now).
I've left more than several states in tossup category in my confidence map, including some that I listed up above, because again we are still more than six months out from the November elections.
That being written, right now I believe that the Democrats will win all of the open Governorships (even if current polls suggest otherwise), and even barring what happened in the '04 Presidential election. And actually royer, there is slightly better electorial history to suggest that is the case than what you wrote earlier (those states are: Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Massachusetts, New York and Ohio -- and remember Massachusetts and New York both went for Kerry in '04, and except for Arkansas, the other four states were actually quite close in the '04 Presidential election, and yes that is Colorado, Florida and Ohio).
And yes, I'm giving the incumbents in Nebraska and South Dakota a better chance at winning (going back on my thought there, or reassessing it). Nevada I have going to Congressman Gibbons over mayor Gibson, D., although I still wonder (although the Democrats are probably the most split in that state of the states where an incumbent GOP Governor is not running for re-election), so yes give Nevada to the GOP.
And as for keeping Alabama and Georgia in tossup, I still think the polls are still showing relatively close races in those states, despite the GOP being ahead. It will come down to the results of the June (Alabama) and then July (Georgia) primary in both states. I'm still convinced if in Alabama, Lt. Governor Lucy Baxley wins the Democratic primary and in Georgia Secretary of State Cathy Cox wins the Democratic primary the Democrats have a very good healthy fighting chance to oust the current GOP incumbents.
And there might be a strong case for many people ousting Perdue, R. here in Georgia (don't forget this is where I live, right now, are you telling me royer, that I might not have some idea what is going on?) But anyway Perdue is running a TV ad here, that is greatly backfiring him, and is showing him as the liar that he is. Perdue is claiming that there was a budget crises here in Georgia when he defeated former Governor Roy Barnes, D. in 2002, and that is simply NOT TRUE, and it isn't just the Atlanta newspapers pointing that out, it's the Macon Telegraph editorial that pointed that out (Macon was represented in the state Senate by Perdue when he was still a Democrat). So Perdue could be on his way out if he continues that type of lying and people get tired of it.
Version: 7
Updated with the new Rasmussen polls that showing that Beebee, D. is ahead of Hutchinson, R. 49% to 38%, in Arkansas.
And the Quinnipiac University poll that Rendell, D. is ahead of Swann, R. 55% to 33% in Pennsylvania.
To ryer, the reason why I'm predicting Democratic upsets in the following states of Alabama, Georgia, Nebraska and South Datoka:
1. Alabama and Georgia: Even though the current GOP incumbents are ahead in polls, they aren't that ahead in polls where the Democratic candidate after the primaries (in June -- in Alabama, and July in Georgia) can't overcome the leads (Riley, R. in Alabama only leads against an unnamed Democratic challenger in the low 40's%, and Perdue, R. in Georgia only leads against an unnamed Democratic challenger wiht 50% of the vote). Plus in Alabama, the GOP is somewhat tearing itself apart with Riley, R. (a somewhat more moderate) having to face the religious right nut, Judge Moore, R. in the primary (also Alabama has the possibility of having it's election affected somewhat by Hurricane Katrina damage, it is the only state, a matter of fact, in this election cycle, where the Governor's race could be affected by Katrina). Plus in Georgia, if the turnout is huge for other Democrats it could affect the outcome, depending on who the nominee is (my choice is Secretary of State Cathy Cox, who will also get more crossover voting than Lt. Governor Mark Taylor will). Now, notice that both of these states are in the tossup column, as is Nebraska and South Dakota, in my confidence map -- as of now -- this will change as time goes along, I'm sure (but also all of these are predicated on a strong movement of Democratic voters nationwide as Bush's popularity and the Congressional popularity and re-elect GOP members numbers are right now -- which would indicate a stronger Democratic vote for all offices than what might be expected state-by-state, but I already stated that the Governor's races will be determined by state-by-state basis than I might currently have listed by my maps right now).
2. As for Nebraska, and a Democratic takeover of the Governorships, with U.S. Senator Ben Nelson, D.'s numbers looking strong, and the GOP incumbent Governor Heinneman's numbers in the primary tepid at best (with many wanting Congressman Osborne), it is possible this race could be close on the Democratic side.
3. And South Dakota, is just against a hope for that the a Democrat is brought on in a wave, not that I'm necessarily expecting that, but it could happen, and incumbent Rounds, R. isn't way way out in front in polls where this might not happen by November.
Version: 6
Went back to slightly more realistic, but still doable Democratic leaning map.
Although I have incumbent Rell, R. - CT and incumbent Douglas, R. - VT re-elect numbers quite high, and actually improved.
Moved Lynch, D. - NH in as only a lean on my confidence map.
And moved Spitzer, D. - NY into more lower elect numbers (although still outstanding, and also have Carceiri, R. - RI back to being relected.
But with new poll numbers in Michigan that show Granholm, D. tied; I did decide to turn many current states with Democratic Governors into only tossup category:
Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
Only on the basis, you never know, how issues will be driven on a state by state basis. But I still think the Democrats will either be re-elected or with the case of Iowa another Democrat will replace the current incumbent who is retiring.
And I still believe the 10% lead for Hatch is not just a fluke. And I also believe we are going to end up with Strayhorn being the first independent Governor of Texas.
And I am going back to questioning how well the Democratic candidates in Alaska, California, Colorado and Nevada might do in November. I might touch this map again, in June, but not again in May.
Version: 5
Updating to coincide with my thoughts on a better Democratic year, than I could even imagine earlier this week, with several thoughts on news, economic news, and political issues.
The only GOP incumbents that I believe have a good night in November are:
Connecticut: Rell
Hawaii: Lingle
South Carolina: Sanford, R.
And the GOP keeps the Idaho Governors chair.
And I'm having, now:
Alaska: state House majority leader Ethan Berkowitz, D. (wins the primary) defeats incumbent Murkowski, R.
Texas: Carole Keeton Strayhorn, i defeats incumbent Perry, R. and Chris Bell, D. and Kinky Friedman, i and others.
Vermont: Scudder Parker, D. defeats Jim Douglas, R. and Peter Diamondstone, Liberty Union and Cris Ericson, Marijuana
Version: 4
05/10/06: I'm predicting now a more huge Democratic year. Although, still a little unsure. Saw the latest poll number curtesy of Rasmussen showing that Democratic Attorney General Mike Hatch of Minnesota is leading by 10% incumbent GOP Governor Tim Pawlenty.
My prediction is that Mike Hatch will chose as his running mate, fairly soon, one of his rivals, state Senator Becky Lourey and they will defeat the Pawlenty/Carol Molnau, R. 54% to 44% to others recieving 2%.
Then onto Nebraska and South Dakota, I really thought that Congressman Tom Osborne was going to defeat incumbent Dave Heinenan in the GOP primary in Nebraska. And now I think it will be up, and it will happen that Publishing Executive and Attorney
David Hahn, D. will defeat Heinenan in November.
In South Dakota the Democratic primary will be won by former state Rep. and surgeon Jack Billion, D. over consultant Dennis Wiese, D.
Then in November, Billion will defeat incumbent Governor Mike Rounds, R.
This leave the GOP only keeping the Alaska, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, South Carolina, Texas and Vermont's Governor's chair. But only Connecticut, Idaho and South Carolina will be kept GOP by an expansive margin.
And I'm still unsure about what surprises still might happen in Alaska, Hawaii, Texas and Vermont, that's why those are much closer on my latest map.
Updating with latest poll results in Maine, which are now showing just what I expected to be the case: Governor Baldacci is not being blamed for the problems, as much as the Republican Presidential administration and the Republican Congress.
I expected in the next couple of days to weeks to see the same thing to be seen in Illinois with Governor there.
Again, next update probably not until after July primaries.
Version: 3
Ditto edited comments.
Will also be contrary and say that the voters in end up splitting their ticket for a GOP Senator and a Democrat Governor, reelecting them both. Even if Baldacci looks somewhat unpopular as of now, he turns it around enough by November, and just as in Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin the GOP Presidential administation and GOP controlled Congress are blamed and held accountable, for the woes in the country, than the Democratic incumbent Governors.
So, the November results are: Baldacci, D. 52% Emery, R. 45% Others 3%.
Promise, this is, both in Senatorial and Gubernatorial predictions, until after the series of primaries into July 2006.
Version: 2
Just totally decided to remake the map. With knowledge of some polls, what is going on with candidates in many states. And my feelings still about this being generally overall a Democratic year.
But there will be some surprises.
Although, I expect that most incumbent GOP Governors will not be tainted with problems associated with low poll ratings with President Bush and the problems with the national GOP; I think there will be some problems for them.
I would expect that it won't be easy for the Democrats, either. But I think it will be slightly easier. And I don't think in some states, without the results of primaries, we don't know where things will be.
Oh, and the Democrats (as in my Senate predictions) will do better in the south in November than many think they will do right now.
Here is my predictions for each state:
Alabama: Lt. Governor Lucy Baxley wins the Democratic primary handily. Incumbent Riley will have trouble winning the GOP primary against former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore. But Riley will pull it out. But this will leave him vulnerable to Baxley, and also leave some religious right folks sitting it out in November. Baxley defeats Riley, 55% to 45%.
Alaska: Incumbent Murkowski, R. wins primary and general handily. Democrats are to split.
Arizona: Incumbent Napalitano, D. wins primary and general handily. Napalitano sets a trend of incumbent women Governors doing well.
Arkansas: State Attorney General Mike Beebe, D. turns this state back to a Democratic Governor as he goes on to defeat Asa Hutchinson, R. 57% to 43%, and replace incumbent Huckabee, R. Hutchinson is one of the few Gubernatorial candidates tainted by the problems with the Bush administration.
California: State Treasurer Phil Angelides, D. wins the primary well, and then goes on to defeat incumbent Schwarzenegger, R. well, 54% to 46%. It helps Angelides that Feinstein runs well in her re-election to the Senate.
Colorado: First state report that the Governor/Lt. Governor run on one ticket in November. Bill Ritter/Barbara O'Brien, D. defeat Marc Holtzman/Lola Spradley, R. closely 52% to 48%. Holtzman had defeated Congressman Bob Beauprez in the GOP primary .
Connecticut: Incumbent Rell, R. is re-elected handily.
Florida: Even though this state does not look good for the Democrats, in the Gubernatorial contest, as of now. I think things will turn around, very well, by November. I think the GOP primary will be more divisive than the Democratic primary, but the loser, state Attorney General Charlie Crist, will reluctantly agree to be the running mate with the victor, state CEO Tom Gallagher. Crist will be reluctant to join Gallagher, because Crist (who is from St. Petersburg) will realize that the Democratic primary victor, Congressman Jim Davis from Tampa will have an advantage with the voter rich I-4 corridor, and even amongst GOP in that corridor. Gallagher being from Dade County will also not necessarily help gain any Democratic crossover vote in the Democratic heavy Palm Beach and Broward County. Although there will be a healthy primary for the Democrats it will not be nearly divisive between Davis and second placer state Senator Rod Smith of Gainesville. And Nelson running for re-election for the U.S. Senate will help, behind the scenes, to broker a compromise after the Sept. 5 primary of having Davis and Smith run together as a strong ticket. So the ticket of Davis/Smith, D. will defeat the ticket of Gallagher/Crist, R. 52% to 48%, and Davis, D. will replace Jeb Bush, R.
Georgia: This elections may be closer than many are thinking, especially considering that Secretary of State Lera Catherine "Cathy" Cox, D. is holding down incumbent George "Sunny" Perdue, R. below 50%, at 48% to 42% in a matchup in the polls (including the usual GOP reliable Rasmussen poll). I also think that Cox, who I'm supporting, will go on to defeat Lt. Governor Mark Taylor in the Democratic primary, despite some recent stumbles. And then Cox, D. will pick up steam after the July primary. Cox, D. will defeat Perdue, R. in the general, 52% to 48%.
Hawaii: Usually a reliable Democratic state. Unfortunately with a popular Republican Governor, Linda Lingle, it will not be in the Gubernatorial race. Lingle wins handily.
Idaho: Congressman C.L. "Butch" Otter, R. wins both his primary and the general handily to replace incumbent Kempthorne, R.
Illinois: For what I'm about to do, in changing my map, I'm going to have that Incumbents Blagovich/Quinn, D. are re-elected over state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinko/DuPage County state Attorney Joe Birkett, R. by a rather slight margin for an incumbent, 54% to 46%.
Iowa: Similiar to Iowa, I'm changing my mind, and process, and having that Governor Vilsack, D. (despite his not heavy popularity), a more united Democratic party than we are seeing currently, and problems in D.C., and Nussle being associated as a GOP Congressman with those problems results in this scenario: Secretary of State Chet Culver/state Agriculture Secretary Patty Judge, D. defeats Congressman Jim Nussle/businessman Bob Vander Plaats, R. 55% to 45%.
Kansas: Incumbents Kathleen Sebelius/John Moore, D. defeats the ticket of state Senators Jim Barnett/Susan Wagle, R. quite well at 58% to 42% in what is usually a reliable Republican state.
Maine: With incumbent Baldacci, D. also being unpopular with many, former Congressman Dave Emery, R. will defeat Baldacci, 48% to 42% to 10% for other candidates to turn this Governorship back to the GOP.
Maryland: With incumbent Ehrlich, R. not being a good fit for this reliable Democratic state (as well as not being that popular), the winners of the Democratic primary, the ticket of Baltimore mayor Martin O'Malley/state House Majority Whip Anthony Brown will defeat Ehrlich/and whoever he picks as his running mate by 59% to 41%.
This will be one of those states where the Democratic Governor/Lt. Governor candidates' win helps the Democratic Senate candidate, Cardin win.
Massachusetts: State Attorney General Thomas "Tom" F. Reilly, D. defeats Lt. Governor Kerry Healey, R. by quite healthy margin, 59% to 41% to both return this state to a Democratic Governorship, but also to replace possible Presidential candidate Mitt Romney.
Michigan: Governor Jennifer Granholm, D. has dodged many bullets that might have hurt her otherwise in this election year. Granholm and her running mate, John Cherry though will win with 54% to 46%, party helped by the re-election of Debbie Stabenow to the U.S. Senate and partly because more people in this state will blame President Bush for problems than Granholm.
Minnesota: This could be a state where the Democratic-Farmer Labor party takes back the Governorship, but it won't, and despite my prediction that the Democrats win the open U.S. Senate seat. Part of this is due to the Democrats splitting themselves apart in the Gubernatorial race, part of this is that incumbents Tim Pawlenty/Carol Molnau, R. are being blamed for some problems, and are actually popular. Pawlenty/Molnau, R. win a close election though, at least for an incumbent, 53% to 47%.
Nebraska: The GOP incumbent Governor Dave Heineman, R. is defeated, but not in the General Election. He is defeated in the primary by Congressman and University of Nebraska former football coach Tom Osborne, R. Osborne goes on to win the November race, handily.
Nevada: In somewhat of a difference than what many people are expecting, now, this race turns around for the Democrats by November, despite the healthy re-election for U.S. Senator Ensign, R. Henderson mayor Jim Gibson, D. wins the primary, very well. Gibson goes on to defeat the similiar named, Congressman Jim Gibbons, R. closely, 52% to 48% to replace incumbent Guinn, R.
New Hampshire: Incumbent John Lynch, D. wins re-election handily.
New Mexico: Incumbent Bill Richardson, D. wins re-election handily.
New York: With Pataki, R. not running, the Democrats have their best chance. The popularity of Rodham Clinton, D. running for re-election to the Senate also helps. Also the candidate that will win the Democratic primary, state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer is also popular. Spitzer, D. defeats former state Assembly Minority Leader John Faso, R. by a whopping margin of 68% to 32%. Faso had also defeated former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld, R. in the primary, 60% to 40%, because Weld was considered to liberal for most GOP voters in New York. Unfortunately New York itself is more than likely becoming much more liberal Democrat in population.
Ohio: With the scandal ridden Taft, R. retiring this is a good time for Democrats in the Gubernatorial election. And the Democrats will do it. On the Democratic ticket is Congressman Ted Strickland/former state Attorney General Lee Fisher, and they defeat Secretary of State Ken Blackwell/state Rep. Tom Raga on the Republican side, 54% to 46%, this actually helps Sherrod Brown, D the candidate who defeats incumbent Mike DeWine, R.
Oklahoma: Incumbent Brad Henry defeats Congressman Ernest Istook, R. 55% to 45%.
Oregon: Incumbent Ted Kulongoski, D. is re-elected with a healthy 56%.
Pennsylvania: As with Illinois and Iowa, my confidence in this being a win by the GOP, is doubting, and now I see a scenario where the Democrats not elected a new Senator in this state, but also re-elected the Governor. Obviously neither Democratic African-American voters, nor the majority Republican white voters trust Swann. Incumbent Ed Rendell, D. defeats retired pro-football player, Lynn Swann, R. 56% to 44%.
Rhode Island: Lt. Governor Charlie Fogarty, D. defeats incumbent Don Carcieri, R. also closely, 52% to 48%.
South Carolina: Incumbent Mark Sanford, R. is re-elected with 61%.
South Dakota: Incumbent Mike Rounds, R. is re-elected with 71%.
Tennessee: Incumbent Phil Bredeson, D. is re-elected with 59%. This actually ends up helping Ford, Jr., D. win the U.S. Senate race.
Texas: Incumbent Rick Perry, R. is re-elected with 58%.
Vermont: Incumbent Jim Douglas, R. is re-elected with 57%.
Wisconsin: Incumbent Jim Doyle, D. defeats Congressman Mark Green, R. 56% to 44%.
Wyoming: Incumbent Dave Freudenthal, D. defeats attorney Ray Hunkins, R. 57% to 43%.
Otherwise, expect no changes, from me, both in my predictions for Governor's races or Senate races until sometime in July.
Version: 1
My first gubernatorial prediction map.
I'm predicting a Democratic year, even in the Governorships. Although not as strong as it might be, because of Republicans being strong in the the majority of the South. Hate to predict that Perdue will keep the Governorship in Georgia.
Only GOP pickup in Pennsylvania.
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