Okay, so I said my last prediction was my last one. I lied. A few things are nagging at me:

Idaho: “R>60” to “R>50” and “Strong R” to “Tossup”. I don’t know how to explain this one. I’m not even gonna try.

Minnesota: “R>40” to “D>40”. I’m surprised to hear myself say it, but the polls now point to Hatch winning the governship, albeit by a remarkably slim margin.

Oklahoma: “D>50” to “D>60”. Poll after poll after poll shows Henry winning by more than 20%. I look forward to seeing such a red state vote so overwhelming Democratic.

My final prediction! Here goes…

Changes from last month’s predictions and explanations for them:

Maryland: “Tossup” to “Lean D”. As the Dems flounder in Maryland at the Senatorial level, O’Malley is looking stronger than ever, and I still believe he is the only gubernatorial candidate who will unseat an incumbent in 2006.

Michigan: “D>40” to “D>50”. Despite an approval rating that remains in the gutter, Granholm is now consistently polling better than DeVos (though only barely). It’s still a tossup, but I now think the most likely result is Granholm clocking in and just over the 50% mark.

Minnesota: “Lean R” to “Tossup”. What a difference a month makes! Minnesota went from being reasonably non-competitve to quite possibly the most competitve gubernatorial race of 2006. Election polling and Pawlenty’s approval rating show that Minneosta is fed up with the GOP. Still, I predict a just-barely Pawlenty win, if only because incumbents are very hard to unseat. Yeah, I’d say Pawlenty has a solid 51% chance of winning this thing.

Rhode Island: “Tossup” to “Lean R”. Carcieri’s election numbers and poll numbers are both on the upswing at this critical time. I give him this win by a reasonably comfortable margin.

Wisconsin: “Lean D” to “Tossup”. Aside from one University of Wisconsin poll I suspect is a fluke, the election polls aren’t moving. I’m moving it to a tossup because of Doyle’s current low approval rating. Still, I give him a considerable edge.

Changes from last month's prediction and explanations for them:

Alaska: "Tossup" to "Lean R". Uber-conservative Alaska has ended its flirtation period with the Dems. Nice try, Mr. Knowles.

California: "R>40" to "R>50" and "Tossup" to "Lean R". California remains lukewarm about the Governator, but Angelides seems increasingly unable to capitalize on that tension. This is gonna be one of those rare situations where a guy with a 40% approval rating wins by a 10-point margin.

Iowa: "Lean D" to "Tossup". Things are now way too close to call. Iowa just always has to be a swing state.

Maine: "Tossup" to "Lean D". It's still close, but Baldacci's approval rating has, overall, been on the rise over the past couple of months (though it's still dangling perilously in the 40's). I'm counting on Maine's overall liberalism to be a big factor in this one.

Massachusetts: "D>40" to "D>50". Recent polling suggests that even with Mihos making a strong showing, Patrick should be able to take a majority of the votes.

Michigan: "R>40" to "D>40". Things are as tight as ever, but recent polling suggests the pendulum might have swung back in Granholm's direction...barely. Her low approval rating is still great cause for concern. Put simply, I have no damn idea.

Minnesota: "R>50" to "R>40". A fairly close race plus a strong independent equals Pawlenty not quite carrying a majority of the votes. Still, Pawlenty's approval rating stands at a 9-month high, and I expect to him to win reelection.

New Hampshire: "D>70" to "D>60". I still don't quite know what to make of this one; Lynch is looking as impressive as ever, but the polling does seem a bit on the inconsistent side. Plus, gubernatorial candidates taking over 70% of the vote is EXTREMELY rare. Back down to 60%+ he goes.

Oregon: "D>50" to "D>40" and "Lean D" to "Tossup". A fairly strong third-party candidate and an approval raiting in the gutter (36% this month! Ouch!) makes things very dicey for Kulongoski.

Changes from last month's prediction and explanations for them:

Alaska: "D>50" to "R>50". Results are preliminary, but as of this writing Murkowski is last in a 3-way in the Alaska Republican Primary, and in uber-conservative Alaska, a non-Murkowski Republican can probably succeed. Knowles is a good candidate, though, so I still consider it a tossup.

Colorado: "Tossup" to "Lean D". A slew of new polls have Ritter winning at fairly wide margins, and the momentum definitely seems to be in his corner.

Georgia: "Lean R" to "Strong R". Sonny has it in the bag.

Idaho: "R>50" to "R>60". Otter is looking strong and Idaho is very conservative to begin with. He'll break the 60% mark.

Maryland: "Lean D" to "Tossup". Ehrlich has a 52% approval rating. Although I still believe he's going down, it would be foolish to call this race anything but up in the air.

Michigan: "R>50" to "R>40". The momentum is back in Granholm's corner. I fully expect to be able to be comfortably move Michigan back to her next month. Not just yet, though.

Minnesota: "R>40" to "R>50" and "Tossup" to "Lean R". Much like Blagojevich, Pawlenty has saved himself. The Dems will have to make hard to make this race competitive again.

Nevada: "Strong R" to "Lean R". Nevada is, by some stretch of the imagination, a potentially competitive race. I'll hold out on declaring it decisively for either party until after the primaries.

New Hampshire: "D>60" to "D>70". Both approval rating polls and election polls show that John Lynch is unstoppable. His approval rating among self-identified conservatives is 62% and among self-identified liberals is 78%. He's towing in the vast majority of the pro-choice AND pro-life votes. I don't know what the hell this man is doing, but he's doing something right.

Oregon: "D>40" to "D>50" and "Tossup" to "Lean D". Though Kulongoski's approval rating still needs some work, recent polling definitely shows him with a considerable advantage. Plus, recent history shows that even if Oregon looks iffy, it usually goes for the Democrat.

Tennessee: "D>50" to "D>60". It's going to be on the cusp, but Breseden is a strong incumbent.

Changes from last month’s prediction and explanations for them:

Alaska: “Lean D” to “Tossup”. Until the primary is over, who really knows? The Republicans could easily turn this mess around by electing a contender that doesn’t have a 35% approval rating within his own party.

Florida: “Tossup” to “Lean R”. The momentum seems to be favoring Crist again; even Quinnipiac University agrees.

Illinois: “Tossup” to “Lean D”. He’s not quite out of the woods yet, but for now it looks as though Blagojevich has managed to turn a scary situation around. I’ll rest easier when his approval rating tops 50%.

Maryland: “Tossup” to “Lean D”. It’s a blue state and Ehrlich appears to be in trouble. Until I get more information, to the Dems it goes.

Massachusetts: “D>50” to “D>40” and “Lean D” to “Strong D”. It sounds contradictory, but Reilly’s lead is more rock solid than ever, while I just woke up and realized it’s looking to be a reasonably competitive three-way ordeal.

Minnesota: “D>40” to “R>40”. It’s way too close to really call it either way. Pawlenty is taking a beating in the election polls, but for now his incumbency and his 52% approval rating are enough to sustain him. Or not.

New Mexico: “D>50” to “D>60”. I’m kicking Richardson up the notch. Polling has consistently shown him with more than a 20% over his opponent and his approval rating sits at a near career high.

New York: “D>60” to “D>70”. Maybe this one is a bit excessive, but, well…just look at those poll results!

Wyoming: “D>50” to “D>60”. Frudenthal is looking pretty darn set…a lot more set than a number of people seem to realize.

Changes from last month's prediction and explanations for them:

Alabama: “Lean R” to “Strong R”. I give up, Riley’s a sure bet after all.

Alaska: “R>50” to “D>50” and “Tossup” to “Lean D”. At long last, the poll numbers and the approval rating numbers are showing themselves in alignment. The wrath against Murkowski is much greater than I ever anticipated it could have been, and I’m tempted to push Alaska even further into the Democratic column, but for a while I’ll sit tight and see how this plays out.

Connecticut: “R>70” to “R>60”. Rell is still right on the >60/>70 cusp, but this month my head’s clearer and I realize that when you find yourself in a situation like this, you go with sanity.

Florida: “Lean R” to “Tossup”. Though this turf still probably belongs to Crist, the momentum certainly seems to be favoring Davis as of late.

Hawaii: “R>50” to “R>60”. Lingle’s popularity seems to only be rising, and until that trend stops, I’ll put Hawaii in her column by a consdierable margin.

Michigan: “R>40” to “R>50”. DeVos remains on the rise and Granholm’s approval rating remains on the slide. She has to do something fast if she plans to keep her seat.

Pennsylvania: “Lean D” to “Strong D”. It was looking iffy for old Eddie for a while there, but he seems to have made his comeback.

Rhode Island: “Lean R” to “Tossup”. Carcieri continues his slow, gradual decline. Perhaps when the 2006 elections are over, uber-liberal Rhode Island will think twice before electing Republican politicians it’s not crazy about.

South Dakota: “R>50” to “R>60”. Though it pains me to say it, Rounds will probably break the 60% mark, unless all those throngs of non-voting left-wing South Dakotans you always hear about decide to get off their butts in November.

Texas: “R>50” to “R>40”. Just because it looks to be a reasonably tight three-way race. Still, my confidence in Perry remains extremely high.

Changes from last month’s prediction and explanations for them:

Alabama: “Strong R” to “Lean R”. If Rasmussen is to believed, Riley isn’t quite as safe as I previously thought. That said, his approval rating remains high, and I really can’t see a reasonable scenario in which he falls.

Alaska: “D>50” to “R>50”. Okay, time to come clean: I have no idea what I’m doing on this one. I should probably do more research; all I know as of now is that Murkowski is immensely unpopular, yet conventional wisdom seems to state that he’s going to win re-election in November. Anyone care to fill me in?

California: “D>40” to “R>40”. This one’s a toughie. Polling shows Schwarzenegger and “Anonymous Democratic Candidate” in a deadlock. I’m tempted to keep it in the Democratic column due to Cali’s overall liberalism, but since Schwarzenegger seems to cleaning up his act and the incumbent almost always has the advantage to some degree, I’ll give it to the GOP. Today.

Connecticut: “R>60” to “R>70”. Current polling indicates that Rell is right on >60/>70 cusp. I realize racking up more than 70% of the vote will be extremely difficult for any gubernatorial candidate, but I believe that if anyone can, it’s Rell.

Georgia: “Strong R” to “Lean R”. Much like Alabama, Georgia will almost certainly go for the Republican incumbent candidate. I just wouldn’t quite bet $100 on it.

Iowa: “Tossup” to “Lean D”. Open races are always difficult to call, but polling is consistently showing Culver leading Nussle. Plus, the 2004 presidential election didn’t completely shatter my faith in Iowa.

Maine: “R>40” to “D>40”. Polls remain close and Baldacci’s approval rating ain’t great, but the incumbent advantage still wins out (though a slight breeze could tip the race in Emery’s favor).

Maryland: “R>50” to “D>50”. It’s tight, but Cardin is now the definite favorite. What a difference a month makes.

Michigan: “D>50” to “R>40” and “Lean D” to “Tossup”. A slew of new polls indicates that maybe, just maybe, Inks has it right. A month ago I was willing to put this race in the bag for Granholm, but now I’ll have to keep a close eye on it.

Minnesota: “R>40” to “D>40” and “Lean R” to “Tossup”. I’m not at all sure I really expect Pawlenty to fall (what with his incumbent status and decent approval rating and all), but to quote Mayor Quimby on The Simpsons, “If that’s the way the winds are blowing, let nobody say that I don’t also blow.”

New Hampshire: “D>50” to “D>60”. Lynch is one hell of a popular governor, and the University of New Hampshire poll that has him leading by 55 points is difficult not to react to.

Ohio: “Lean D” to “Strong D”. Show me a poll with Strickland leading Blackwell by less than 10 points and I’ll change it back.

Oregon: “R>40” to “D>40”. Kulongoski is making an impressive showing in the polls regarding re-election and a despicable showing in the polls regarding job approval. The fact that he doesn’t quite seem to be uniting the Oregonian Democratic base only adds to the iffiness. Still, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt until the re-election polls start to show otherwise.

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