PredictionsEndorse2006 Gubernatorial Predictions - Miamiu1027 (D-NY) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-06 Version:13

Prediction Map
Miamiu1027 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Miamiu1027 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
36 |
50 |
Dem22
 
pie
Rep14
 
Ind0
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
36 |
50 |
Dem19
 
pie
Rep14
 
Ind0
 
Tos3
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+2+6+800013114+8
Rep000-2-6-811314-8
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
653431
piepiepie

Comments

Alabama: Bob Riley (R) 58%, Lucy Baxley (D) 42%
Alaska: Sarah Palin (R) 49%, Tony Knowles (D) 45%
Arizona: Janet Napolitano (D) 63%, Len Munsil (R) 35%
Arkansas: Mike Beebe (D) 57%, Asa Hutchinson (R) 42%
California: Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) 55%, Phil Angelides (D) 43%
Colorado: Bill Ritter (D) 58%, Bob Beauprez (R) 39%
Connecticut: Jodi Rell (R) 62%, Dan DeStefano (D) 38%
Florida: Charlie Crist (R) 54%, Jim Davis (D) 46%
Georgia: Sonny Perdue (R) 55%, Mark Taylor (D) 40%
Hawaii: Linda Lingle (R) 66%, Randy Iwase (D) 34%
Idaho: Jerry Brady (D) 50%, Butch Otter (R) 49%
Illinois: Rod Blagojevich (D) 48%, Judy Baar Topinka (R) 40%, Rich Whitney (G) 12%
Iowa: Chet Culver (D) 53%, Jim Nussle (R) 47%
Kansas: Kathleen Sebelius (D) 58%, Jim Barnett (R) 40%
Maine: John Baldacci (D) 38%, Chandler Woodcock (R) 31%, Barbara Merrill (I) 21%, Pat LaMarche (G) 10%
Maryland: Martin O'Malley (D) 50%, Bob Ehrlich (R) 49%
Massachusetts: Deval Patrick (D) 56%, Kerry Healey (R) 35%, Christy Mihos (I) 9%
Michigan: Jennifer Granholm (D) 54%, Dick DeVos (R) 45%
Minnesota: Mike Hatch (DFL) 48%, Tim Pawlenty (R) 46%, Peter Hutchinson (I) 6%
Nebraska: Dave Heineman (R) 76%, David Hahn (D) 23%
Nevada: Jim Gibbons (R) 52%, Dana Titus (D) 47%
New Hampshire: John Lynch (D) 73%, Jim Coburn (R) 25%
New Mexico: Bill Richardson (D) 64%, John Dendahl (R) 36%
New York: Eliot Spitzer (D) 71%, John Faso (R) 27%
Ohio: Ted Strickland (D) 59%, Ken Blackwell (R) 39%
Oklahoma: Brad Henry (D) 66%, Ernie Istook (R) 33%
Oregon: Ted Kulongoski (D) 52%, Ron Saxton (R) 44%
Pennsylvania: Ed Rendell (D) 60%, Lynn Swann (R) 40%
Rhode Island: Don Carcieri (R) 55%, Charlie Fogarty (D) 45%
South Carolina: Mark Sanford (R) 58%, Tommy Moore (D) 41%
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) 62%, Jack Billion (D) 37%
Tennessee: Phil Bredesen (D) 66%, Jim Bryson (R) 32%
Texas: Rick Perry (R) 39%, Chris Bell (D) 24%, Carole Keeton Strayhorn (I) 22%, Kinky Friedman (I) 14%
Vermont: Jim Douglas (R) 55%, Scudder Parker (D) 44%
Wisconsin: Jim Doyle (D) 52%, Mark Green (R) 47%
Wyoming: Dave Freudenthal (D) 67%, Ray Hunkins (R) 33%


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 3

Changes from last entry:

Alaska from D --> R: It looks like Murkowski is going to lose the primary. A Republican who is not hated in the state will have a much better chance. But this race remains very close and Knowles has a good chance.

Illinois from R --> D: Blagojevich sucks and I hate him, but he's doing slightly better in the polls now and looks to be a slight favorite. However, he's still doing badly and isn't out of the woods yet by any stretch of the imagination.

Maine from R --> D: Baldacci isn't in the terrible shape that we originally thought. He should win.

Michigan from D --> R: I didn't believe Granholm was in really serious trouble until a DeVos took the lead. Clearly DeVos would win if the election was held today, but it isn't going to be held today, so Granholm is still breathing. DeVos doesn't really fit that state well, and if Granholm can exploit that she can still salvage the victory. But DeVos has to be the slight favorite at this point.

Rhode Island from R --> D: Carcieri is in serious trouble. I don't exactly know why; my theory is that it's that medical marijuana bill he vetoed. The race is pretty much tied now, but I'll give it to Fogarty at this point due to the general anti-GOP nature of 2006.

Minnesota and Wisconsin are too close to call now. I left them with the incumbents until further notice.


Version: 2

Gave CA back to Schwarzenegger


Version: 1

....


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 246
P 2022 Senate 30/35 24/35 54/70 77.1% pie 3 1 205T305
P 2022 Governor 31/36 25/36 56/72 77.8% pie 2 1 158T272
P 2020 President 53/56 35/56 88/112 78.6% pie 7 7 480T684
P 2020 Senate 30/35 18/35 48/70 68.6% pie 6 4 337T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 3 36 51T293
P 2018 Senate 32/35 24/35 56/70 80.0% pie 7 1 42T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 27/36 60/72 83.3% pie 6 3 18T372
P 2017 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 11 40T149
P 2016 President 47/56 28/56 75/112 67.0% pie 19 1 440T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 17/34 47/68 69.1% pie 10 23 213T362
P 2016 Governor 8/12 6/12 14/24 58.3% pie 2 33 67T279
P 2014 Senate 35/36 23/36 58/72 80.6% pie 1 3 60T382
P 2012 President 55/56 43/56 98/112 87.5% pie 5 47 182T760
P 2012 Rep Primary 23/52 11/52 34/104 32.7% pie 16 - 137T231
P 2010 Senate 31/37 16/37 47/74 63.5% pie 2 99 280T456
P 2008 President 52/56 46/56 98/112 87.5% pie 22 1 41T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 13 1 28T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 5 1 86T264
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 1 92 1T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 25/33 58/66 87.9% pie 16 1 10T465
P 2006 Governor 34/36 31/36 65/72 90.3% pie 13 1 1T312
P 2004 President 56/56 41/56 97/112 86.6% pie 52 1 24T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 672/757 480/757 1152/1514 76.1% pie


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