PredictionsEndorse2006 Gubernatorial Predictions - RepubforDem (R-IL) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-07 Version:10

Prediction Map
RepubforDem MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
RepubforDem MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
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Confidence States Won
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State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages

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Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 9

I am going way out on a limb here and predicting that Ehrlich will be re-elected, Blagojevich defeated, Gibbons and Otter defeated as well.

Very recent polling going into the weekend indicates Ehrlich is within the margin of error, Gibbons/Titus is within MOE, Otter/Brady also within MOE. Blagojevich/Topinka is questionable depending on which poll you read. Mason-Dixon has the race within the MOE but Rasmussen and Survey USA have the race out of reach for Topinka. The elephant in the corner of the room in that race is Green Party candidate Rich Whitney who is polling between 7-16% as of late. With the exception of the Maryland race, momentum appears to be shifting towards the challenger in many races across the country right now.

Version: 8

I should be increasing my confidence in the various races however events in Idaho and Nevada have increased my toss-ups.

Version: 7

Illinois Green Party candidate Rich Whitney has doubled his support over the past month from 7% to 14% If trends continue, and increased media coverage of Whitney continue, Whitney could split the independants and liberals handing the election to Topinka. For this scenario to happen, Whitney needs to break more than 20%, preferably 24-26% range. Plus former Illinois governor Slim Jim Edgar is speaking on TV ads for Topinka. He is pretty much the last Republican in Illinois with a positive rating. I am smelling momentum in the Green and Republican camps right now.

Version: 5

After discussing a few things with Olawakandi, I realized that I needed to update my Gubernatorial map. As we head into the home stretch I am finding campaigns actually solidifying unlike our Congressional races. Here's a few things that I think we should look out for:

Arkansas: Hutchinson is getting nowhere fast in Arkansas. Beebe wins greater than 50%. Strong Dem pickup.

California: I am keeping my original prediction with California. I am a little worried about the number of undecideds in the polling.

Colorado: Changed from lean Dem to Strong Dem. Republicans are just not doing good in Colorado at all this year.

Connecticut: Maintaining Rell wins re-election above 60%. How often does someone succeed their predecessor who resigned in disgrace and ends up being extremely popular?

Florida: Changed Florida to Crist winning with more than 50% and strong GOP confidence.

Hawaii: Safe GOP above 50%

Illinois: Ok so everyone and their second cousin knows that Blagojevich will win re-election here. My biggest regret is that I am not related to him. If I were, I would be sitting around on a cushy made-up state job making somewhere around 70 grand a year. Before I let my rant take control of me, I have Topinka winning this race not because of skilled analytical thinking. Rather, this is just me keeping hope alive in the New Jersey of the Midwest (Thank you Ryer for that phrase, it fits!)

Kansas: Lowered my predictions from Sebelius winning above 50% instead of 60%. I am also worried about the higher number of undecideds in the polling there.

Maine: Baldacci as lean over 40%.

Maryland: Goes to lean Democrat, over 40%.

Massachusetts: I'm going out on a limb and predicting that Patrick wins over 60%.

Michigan: Granholm should hold on but this one is still a tossup.

Minnesota: I'm thinking Hatch will squeak out over Pawlenty but this is also part of the MidWest tossup area.

Nevada: Lean Republican with over 40%.

Oregon: Should stay Democrat, lean Democrat over 40%.

Rhode Island: I don't know what I was thinking earlier about Dems picking up that seat but I fixed it now. Carcieri over 40% but still a tossup.

Texas: This one is cool. Republicans should be sailing through this one but two independants with name recognition really might screw up this race. Consistent with the polling, Perry should win re-election but probably will not win over 40%. I have this race listed as a tossup considering that Grandma Strayhorn and Kinky Friedman have populist appeal and who knows who will show up at the polling booth. Go Kinky!

Wisconsin: Doyle should squeak through but its still a tossup.

Wyoming: I was tempted to predict a Freudenthal victory above 60% but given Wyoming being Wyoming, I'm leaving the Freudenthal victory between 50-60%. .

Version: 4

Changed Minnesota and Iowa to tossups. I am curious as to if Klobuchar's popularity will spill over into a narrow Hatch victory in November.
I am still keeping the faith alive that Topinka will prevail in Illinois. Blago's attack ads have been successful however he is in trouble now for his 8 year old daughter accepting $1500 checks for her birthday from political supporters. Supposedly, they are meant for her college education.
Unfortunately, as Illinois gubernatorial history has proven time and again, the more corrupt the governor, the more popular they are.

Version: 3

I am still holding faith that Topinka will win in Illinois

Version: 1

Call me crazy, but I still have a feeling that Arnold in California will retain his position and Judy Baar Topinka in Illinois will topple the scandal plagued Blagojevich regime.

Version History

Member Comments

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-07 @ 00:18:31

Here goes, last Gubernatorial prediction. I mostly changed percentages here, as some of the incumbents are running better than I thought they would.

Obviously, the two I am least confident about are Illinois and Maryland. Ehrlich has a good chance to pull this one out but it will be close. The result in Illinois depends on how the third party candidate will do on Tuesday. Against conventional wisdom, most people are voting for Whitney as a protest against the two major party candidates. IF Whitney gets 10% or less, Topinka can pull this one out. If Whitney gets more than 10%, Topinka is doomed. Currently, Whitney is polling between 7-16% Either way, Blagojevich is a horrible governor, in many ways worse than George Ryan, and if re-elected, Blagojevich maybe forced out of office from corruption charges. Blagojevich is currently and consistently polling at 44%
prediction Map

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-07 @ 01:00:49

does anyone know what the latest time we are allowed to switch our maps is?prediction Map

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-07 @ 01:15:45

Next week. prediction Map

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-07 @ 01:16:06

Seriously though, I don't know. prediction Map

 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-07 @ 10:48:38

Noon today (EST). It's at the top of the page here:

Last Edit: 2006-11-07 @ 10:49:24
prediction Map

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 17/33 50/66 75.8% pie 14 1 156T465
P 2006 Governor 31/36 18/36 49/72 68.1% pie 10 0 147T312
Aggregate Predictions 64/69 35/69 99/138 71.7% pie

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