Date of Prediction: 2006-11-07 Version:20
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Prediction Score (max Score = 72)
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Prediction History
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Version: 19 In light of the Mason-Dixon I made the move on Minnesota. Also flipped Alaska and Maryland to tossup now. Version: 18 Changed a lot of races to less competitive designations. Version: 17 Changed Idaho and Pennsylvania percentages, making both a little closer. Version: 16 Switched Maine back to Democrat again, given all that has happened I don't think the climate is right for a GOP takeover here. I also moved CT down to 50%, beginning to wonder whether it might be appropriate to designate it as lean too (my lean category is pretty generous). Version: 15 Moved a couple of races further towards the Democrats. Version: 14 Some minor percentage changes. Version: 13 Did a little fine-tuning of percentages and confidence levels based on recent polling. No major changes though. Version: 12 Moved Alaska to lean Rep, sadly. Because of my superstition I also moved Maine to Republican pick-up. They should be able to pick off ONE seat, at least... Version: 11 Moved California to lean Rep. Schwarzenegger seems to be running away now, with ever-larger leads. Version: 10 In view of Ritter moving ahead in polls I'm changing it to lean Dem. Seem slike Colorado's Democratic trend continues.Alaska I'm losing hope with. It won't be Murkowski in the general, he got too unpopular. This Palin woman seems to be a strong candidate, and Knowles is not getting there in polls. Cautiously moving it back into the GOP column. With Granholm pulling level again I expect her to squeak through against DeVos. Version: 8 Moved Alaska to Democrats. If the race is confirmed as Knowles v Murkowski, I'll probably move it to lean. But I'd like a poll of this one! Version: 7 Switched PA to lean and Florida to tossup. IF this keeps up Republicans are not going to have a nice November. Version: 6 Switched Rhode Island to tossup, for the fun of it. Version: 5 Switched Illinois back to Dem, raised Douglas percentage to 60+ and well, that was pretty much it this time. :) Version: 4 Took another look at the polls and shifted a few percentages, strong-lean-tossup status, etc. I moved Maine to lean Dem, compared to tossup-GOP in the last version. Also moved Colorado to GOP, no real reason to predict a pick-up here yet. Version: 3 CHanged RI to lean in light of the new poll. ALso shifted a few percentages around. Version: 2 Changed some mistakes (like not changing California's results). Also flipped Illinois and Maine to the GOP to make things more fair. I feel that tossups should be more or less equally distributed between the parties, otherwise you're probably being biased. Version: 1 Early prediction. But there is a bug in it. ops. :P
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