Election 2007 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2007-06-17 Version:2

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		2 \|	3 \|	50 \|
Dem	2
Rep	1
Ind	0
Non	47

Confidence States Won

		2 \|	3 \|	50 \|
Dem	1
Rep	1
Ind	0
Tos	1
Non	47

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	0	+1	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1
Rep	0	0	0	-1	0	-1	1	0	1	-1
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 6)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
3	2	1

Comments

I think that no candidate will get a majority in the Louisiana Primary, but Jindal will finish first, the two main Democrats second and third, and the other Republican fourth. The race will then go to a runoff, in which case the Democrat will win by less than 1-3% because the Democratic voters will unite and some of the voters who voted for the other Republican, many because of Jindal's race, will then vote for the conservative white male Democrat in the runoff.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 1

I think people are writing off Louisiana as a done deal for the Republicans way too fast.

Version History

Member Comments

By: Eytan (D-ISR) - 2007-06-18 @ 06:19:15

I think Jindal might break 50% in the first round.

By: Chris Brown (D-AZ) - 2007-06-21 @ 11:28:10

He might, but I think Louisiana is more Democratic in state politics than a lot of people realize.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2018 Senate	32/35	21/35	53/70	75.7%	3	35	132	T	483
2018 Governor	33/36	16/36	49/72	68.1%	1	53	241	T	372
2016 President	50/56	31/56	81/112	72.3%	12	0	194	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	18/34	48/68	70.6%	8	27	164	T	362
2016 Governor	10/12	5/12	15/24	62.5%	8	0	47	T	279
2014 Senate	31/36	19/36	50/72	69.4%	2	543	217	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	14/36	45/72	62.5%	2	543	145	T	300
2013 Governor	1/2	0/2	1/4	25.0%	1	223	138	T	153
2012 President	53/56	40/56	93/112	83.0%	3	3	401	T	760
2012 Senate	28/33	16/33	44/66	66.7%	2	3	211	T	343
2012 Governor	7/11	4/11	11/22	50.0%	1	42	211	T	228
2010 Senate	32/37	16/37	48/74	64.9%	3	1	265	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	18/37	52/74	70.3%	3	1	143	T	312
2008 President	52/56	42/56	94/112	83.9%	57	141	115	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	15/33	45/66	68.2%	2	255	257	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	2	255	86	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	36/52	10/52	46/104	44.2%	3	-	84		271
2008 Rep Primary	12/49	3/49	15/98	15.3%	1	-	182	T	235
2007 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	2	142	135	T	167
Aggregate Predictions	515/625	295/625	810/1250	64.8%

Links

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