PredictionsEndorse2007 Gubernatorial Predictions - Eytan (D-ISR) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2007-05-21 Version:4

Prediction Map
Eytan MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Eytan MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
2 |
3 |
50 |
Dem1
 
pie
Rep2
 
Ind0
 
Non47
 

Confidence States Won
2 |
3 |
50 |
Dem1
 
pie
Rep2
 
Ind0
 
Tos0
 
Non47
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+10+10-1-10000
Rep0+1+1-10-11010
Ind0000000000


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Prediction History
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Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

 By: downwithdaleft (R-NJ) - 2007-05-21 @ 14:35:20

Strong Dem in KY? No way right nowprediction Map

 By: Olawakandi (D-CA) - 2007-05-23 @ 15:09:35

I think after the primary, Fletcher still has an uphill climb but he is in much better shape than he was when that first poll came by him losing by double figures. I say Dems win by 8-10 points enough to be lean Democratic.prediction Map

 By: Eytan (D-ISR) - 2007-05-25 @ 11:57:25

Yes, I would assume that sort of margin. Hell, might even be a bit slimmer. But I'm pretty darn sure the Democrats will win.
Here's why:
350,000 people voted in the Democratic primary. Only 200,000 Republicans voted in their primary.
Let's say that in the general election, 1,200,000 people in Kentucky will vote. Beshear keeps all Democratic primary voters. Fletcher loses 10,000 votes (at least), but let's say he keeps all 200,000. Another 650,000 still need to be allocated. Now here's Fletcher's problem: He needs to defeat Beshear among these voters 400,000 - 250,000, just to break even. That's a 62% majority, something unpopular governors don't get.
Fletcher is in a huge problem. Kentucky Democrats are enthusiastic about voting.

Last Edit: 2007-05-26 @ 17:30:14
prediction Map

 By: AnythingGoes41 (I-IL) - 2007-05-26 @ 14:32:32

I would not be so certain. Unpopular governors have a very good re-election rate. Plus, Kentucky is a Republican state so that gives Fletcher an added advantage. I still say Dems win Kentucky but only by a very small margin, lucky to break 50%prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 55/56 47/56 102/112 91.1% pie 10 0 47T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 19/33 50/66 75.8% pie 6 0 111T
P 2012 Rep Primary 9/52 4/52 13/104 12.5% pie 3 - 206T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 2/4 6/8 75.0% pie 5 140 12T
P 2010 Senate 37/37 23/37 60/74 81.1% pie 14 1 54T
P 2010 Governor 31/37 20/37 51/74 68.9% pie 3 137 158T
P 2008 President 53/56 46/56 99/112 88.4% pie 54 6 26T
P 2008 Senate 33/33 25/33 58/66 87.9% pie 23 6 5T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 11/11 22/22 100.0% pie 10 6 1T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 20 34 58T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 25/33 58/66 87.9% pie 69 1 10T
P 2006 Governor 35/36 26/36 61/72 84.7% pie 59 1 22T
Aggregate Predictions 335/391 250/391 585/782 74.8% pie


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