PredictionsEndorse2008 Gubernatorial Predictions - CR (--MO) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2007-11-23 Version:2

Prediction Map
CR MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
CR MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
6 |
11 |
50 |
Dem5
 
pie
Rep6
 
Ind0
 
Non39
 

Confidence States Won
6 |
11 |
50 |
Dem4
 
pie
Rep4
 
Ind0
 
Tos3
 
Non39
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0000-1-1415-1
Rep0+1+1000505+1
Ind0000000000


Analysis

At this point in the race I see very little change in the gubernatorial landscape.

Safe Democratic States:

New Hampshire - Lynch is favored to win. He won in 2004 51%-49% and again in 2006 with 71% of the popular vote. His popularity also remains quiet high.

Delaware - Minner is term limited and can't run for reelection. The current Lt Governor John Carney is the most likely nominee for the Democrats and I expect him to retain the seat. No current GOP candidate has been chosen.

West Virginia - Manchin should have no trouble holding his seat. His popularity is high and he won in 2004 with 64% of the vote. It's a solid safe seat for Democrats

Montana - Schweitzer is another popular incumbent who won in 2004 50%-46%. He has no serious challengers at this time.

Safe Republican States:

Vermont - The incumbent Governor Douglas looks to be in fine shape to win reelection. He won his last election with 58% of the vote and has no serious challengers.

Indiana - Despite some rough issues I feel that Daniels can still pull off a close reelection. It may well be closer than his last election where he unseated the then-current Democratic governor 53%-45%. However, he still has a strong standing and his seat is lean at the moment.

North Dakota - Wildly popular Governor Hoeven won in 2004 with about 71% of the vote. He is extremely popular and his seat is about as solid as it can get. There is no current challenger in either the primary or the general election.

Utah - It looks like Governor Huntsman is going to have an easy reelection. He won in 2004 58%-41%. His remains quiet high and the seat is solid for the Republicans.

Tossup States:

Missouri - Govenor Blunt faces a tough reelection against Jay Nixon. However, I feel that even though the race will be tight that Blunt can pull it off. His approval rating is moderate at the moment. I also don't think that Nixon is the best candidate to run. Still it will be a nail bitter all the way to the end.

Washington - Current Governor Gregoire won her 2004 race by about 133 votes against Dino Rossi. It looks to be a rematch in 2008 and I expect it to be tight again. However, Gregoire has done a moderately good job of managing this liberal state and as it stands today enjoys moderate approval ratings. I predict she can hold her seat at this time. Rossi may not be the best candidate for the GOP to run again.

North Carolina - I have moved this state into the tossup column as Governor Easley is term limited and can not run in 2008. Though Easley is popular the GOP has a good organization in North Carolina and this could be a pick up. Right now the race looks like it will be between the current Lt Governor Beverly Perdue for the Democrats and attorney Bill Graham for the GOP.

Of course all these races are subject to change as the year goes on and we collect more information on the races. I, however, don't see much of a change right now.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-11-24 @ 01:00:02
LOL Missouri and NC voting for the GOP in 2008, as far as governor, is like saying Newt Gingrich would win San Francisco. Not gonna happen.

Also call me James, not jamespol.

What people forget is, North Carolina independents nearly vote unanimously for the GOP federally and Dem locally.. which gives any DEM for the US Senate/President and any Republican for a statewide office an uphill battle.
prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2007-11-24 @ 01:17:56
That still does not mean that there is no room for change. I'll make it Democratic later but after learning that Easley was not on the ballot I think that it could be competitive. Just as Missouri will. Saying that neither will vote GOP in 2008 is like having Jeff Sessions be the governor of Rhode Island.

And I'll remember to just stick with James.
prediction Map

 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-11-24 @ 01:19:53
"And I'll remember to just stick with James."

What does that mean?
prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2007-11-24 @ 01:23:22
You said you'd rather be called James instead of Jamespol. So I meant I'd remember to just call you James....prediction Map

 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-11-24 @ 01:30:25
Oh ok.. lol

don't call me jamespol, it gives me bad memories from when I trolled the forum non-stop.

However your analysis shows a clear GOP bias. You mention he won 51-49 in 2004 (Lynch), but do not mention his 3 to 1 victory in 2006... nit picky tho.


Last Edit: 2007-11-24 @ 01:31:15
prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2007-11-24 @ 01:45:57
Is New Hampshire one of those state that does elections every two years??? Damn I forgot about that. Thanks, I'll make an update. prediction Map

 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-11-26 @ 18:36:05
ConservRep, curious, if Jay Nixon wins, will you go on a violent overthrow of the state government? :Pprediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2007-11-28 @ 18:49:35
Maybe I could be the governor then!prediction Map

 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2007-11-28 @ 21:15:46
Jay Nixon has an advantage at the current time. That can not be denied. But the MO-Polls have been all over the place lately.prediction Map

 By: AHDuke99 (R-SC) 2008-01-01 @ 21:50:33
If McCrory runs for governor for the NC GOP, he could beat Perdue. He's a popular mayor in Charlotte. prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-01-02 @ 14:21:42
That's what I'm hoping for. I think that we could win in North Carolina with Easiley out of the way. We have a base there. Hey by the way, I really like your gubernatorial map.

Last Edit: 2008-01-02 @ 14:21:57
prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-01-30 @ 01:07:57
I'm keeping this map because I still feel it is pretty accurate for what we could see in the fall. Blunt is stepping down and my congressman Kenny Hulshof is rumored to be running for the governorship. He is well liked, even by liberals here in the 9th district. He's one of my favorite Republicans and I think he can beat Nixon, probably better than Blunt could. We'll see. prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-01-30 @ 01:52:24
I like both Steelman or Hulshof, I'd vote for either one and I believe they can both beat Nixon. But Hulshof is my favorite. If Steelman gets it thought I'd like to see Kenny run for the senate if Bond steps down in 2010 or take on McCaskill in 2012. prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-01-30 @ 02:00:32
Steelman could be good to run for the House now that I think about it. She make a great congresswoman. As for our governor's race I just don't see Nixon doing that great. I don't think he'll win against Steelman or Hulshof. prediction Map

 By: AHDuke99 (R-SC) 2008-02-10 @ 00:05:03
McCrory will be a strong candidate for NC and beats the Democrat in every poll. He has done a nice job in 7 terms as Charlotte mayor and is very popular. prediction Map

 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2008-03-02 @ 03:28:34
Missouri is wrong on this map.prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-03-03 @ 19:58:01
Too bad. Your opinion. prediction Map

 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2008-03-08 @ 02:31:35
Not opinion, but a FACT.prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-03-08 @ 20:28:19
Opinion. prediction Map

 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2008-03-09 @ 05:46:22
Fact.prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-03-09 @ 21:10:26
False Fact. prediction Map

 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2008-03-10 @ 07:46:00
No it is truly a fact.

You need to get over your stupid "Missouri is as solid GOP as Utah crap."

I am not a Democrat, but I am a realist, and the MO GOP maxed themselves out in 2004. They have nothing else to gain.

What I am saying is FACT not opinion.
prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-03-10 @ 08:37:14
Just knock it off. You need to get over your Jay Nixon is absolutely going to be the next govenor and nothing can stop him crap. The fact is states don't max out when the party is going a good job. They are not going to switch just because you think its time for them to do so. So that is your opinion. prediction Map

 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2008-03-11 @ 11:59:56
What will you do if Nixon wins? Move out of the state?

You have to admit that there is nothing else the GOP can gain here. That is what I meant by being maxed out. Unfortunately you don't see things clearly.
prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-03-11 @ 22:07:52
If Nixon wins I'll just say oh well and look ahead to 2012. That's all one can do. The Missouri GOP is one of the healthiest state Republican parties in the country right now. I don't think we'll lose the general assembly but will we make gains? Dunno. Don't care either as long as we win. prediction Map

 By: cmbeattie (L-OK) 2008-04-25 @ 01:52:25
I want Talent to Run for a new office even if he runs for Senate again.prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-04-29 @ 02:43:54
I too am a fan of Talent cmbeattie. I hated that he lost in such a close race in 2006 but that's all behind us now. I think he talked about running for the senate again in 2012 against McCaskill. I'd vote for him a second time just as I did in 2006. prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 51/56 30/56 81/112 72.3% pie 10 3 194T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 16/34 46/68 67.6% pie 5 3 252T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 5/12 14/24 58.3% pie 4 3 67T279
P 2014 Senate 35/36 18/36 53/72 73.6% pie 10 1 158T382
P 2014 Governor 32/36 20/36 52/72 72.2% pie 6 1 15T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 233 17T153
P 2012 President 52/56 38/56 90/112 80.4% pie 25 2 489T760
P 2012 Senate 29/33 19/33 48/66 72.7% pie 6 2 144T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 8/11 18/22 81.8% pie 5 2 24T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 46/52 17/52 63/104 60.6% pie 29 - 27T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 1 245 37T106
P 2010 Senate 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 19 1 63T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 21/37 56/74 75.7% pie 8 1 106T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 2 3 1T103
P 2008 President 47/56 28/56 75/112 67.0% pie 44 1 702T1,505
P 2008 Senate 31/33 14/33 45/66 68.2% pie 7 1 257T407
P 2008 Governor 9/11 4/11 13/22 59.1% pie 4 1 232T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 43/52 24/52 67/104 64.4% pie 22 - 23T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 34/49 15/49 49/98 50.0% pie 23 - 55T235
Aggregate Predictions 534/609 307/609 841/1218 69.0% pie


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