PredictionsNewsEndorse2008 Gubernatorial Predictions - wingindy (I-IN) ResultsForumPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-31 Version:1

Prediction Map
wingindy MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
wingindy MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
6 |
11 |
50 |
Dem7
 
pie
Rep4
 
Ind0
 
Non39
 

Confidence States Won
6 |
11 |
50 |
Dem4
 
pie
Rep4
 
Ind0
 
Tos3
 
Non39
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0+1+1000426+1
Rep0000-1-1404-1
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 22)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
17116
piepiepie

Analysis

This will likely be my final gubenatorial prediction. (My one and only previous map was somehow deleted) The only change could be based on new polling in NC, the only race which really seems to be in question at this point. I am disappointed by Thompson's meager effort here in Indiana.


Member Comments
 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-10-31 @ 12:08:49
New Hampshire confidence should be strong.prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-01 @ 12:10:51
A note on Vermont: apparently, if no candidate wins 50%+, the legislature decides. While Douglas has been leading Symington by 20+ points, due to a strong independent, he has polled short of 50%. Look for Dems. to pick up 2 statehouses in 2009: Missouri and Vermont.

I suppose Liep scores on election day voting, regardless of whether it is conclusive. So I'll keep VT the same on my map, and switch GA on my Senate map to reflect Chambliss picking up a plurality of the votes, though a runoff will determine the final outcome, IMHO.
prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate /33 /33 /66 % pie
P 2016 President 53/56 22/56 75/112 67.0% pie 21 1 440T
P 2016 Senate 28/34 17/34 45/68 66.2% pie 5 5 277T
P 2016 Governor 7/12 2/12 9/24 37.5% pie 1 94 269T
P 2014 Senate 34/36 21/36 55/72 76.4% pie 4 0 122T
P 2014 Governor 27/36 17/36 44/72 61.1% pie 2 16 171T
P 2012 President 54/56 41/56 95/112 84.8% pie 9 0 314T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 14/33 46/66 69.7% pie 1 191 189T
P 2012 Rep Primary 35/52 12/52 47/104 45.2% pie 10 - 83T
P 2010 Senate 35/37 21/37 56/74 75.7% pie 9 15 116T
P 2010 Governor 30/37 15/37 45/74 60.8% pie 1 299 214T
P 2008 President 54/56 44/56 98/112 87.5% pie 22 1 41T
P 2008 Senate 32/33 24/33 56/66 84.8% pie 5 1 14T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 1 4 86T
P 2008 Dem Primary 45/52 21/52 66/104 63.5% pie 8 - 26T
P 2008 Rep Primary 43/49 11/49 54/98 55.1% pie 11 - 31T
Aggregate Predictions 520/590 288/590 808/1180 68.5% pie


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