Election 2008 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:8

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		6 \|	11 \|	50 \|
Dem	7
Rep	4
Ind	0
Non	39

Confidence States Won

		6 \|	11 \|	50 \|
Dem	7
Rep	4
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	39

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	4	2	6	+1
Rep	0	0	0	0	-1	-1	4	0	4	-1
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 22)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
17	11	6

Analysis

The last of my three maps I'm updating to reflect them being my final map of '08.

I think Obama/Biden help pull Bev Perdue in NC and Christine Gregoire in WA to a win.

Unfortunately the Obama/Biden landslide fails to pull in Jill Long Thompson who suffered some of her own self-inflicted wounds, and Mitch Daniels is just a better candidate and Governor for Indiana.

In Missouri, Obama/Biden help, but Jay Nixon may just have his own *reverse* coattails to help them and Kenny Hulshof was not a good candidate that the GOP put up.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2010 Senate	23/37	10/37	33/74	44.6%	3	325	441	T	456
2009 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	2	2	56	T	103
2008 President	50/56	31/56	81/112	72.3%	98	1	474	T	1,505
2008 Senate	31/33	14/33	45/66	68.2%	21	1	257	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	8	1	86	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	29/52	7/52	36/104	34.6%	8	-	124	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	21/49	1/49	22/98	22.4%	11	-	152	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	4	16	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	19/33	52/66	78.8%	51	1	113	T	465
2006 Governor	32/36	18/36	50/72	69.4%	44	1	132	T	312
2004 President	46/56	38/56	84/112	75.0%	114	1	834	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	280/368	148/368	428/736	58.2%

Links

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