Election 2009 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2009-10-26 Version:4

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		2 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	0
Rep	2
Ind	0
Non	48

Confidence States Won

		2 \|	2 \|	50 \|
Dem	0
Rep	1
Ind	0
Tos	1
Non	48

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-1	-1	-2	0	0	0	-2
Rep	+1	+1	+2	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 4)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
4	2	2

Analysis

I have no doubt about Virginia.
I now have doubts on New Jersey. As long as Daggett is taking more votes Christie has lost ground and Corzine has not gained at all but is close due to Daggett. It is a tossup and may be a bare win for Christie

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	34/35	23/35	57/70	81.4%	1	42	124	T	305
2022 Governor	35/36	23/36	58/72	80.6%	1	42	104	T	272
2021 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	16	28	T	118
2020 President	54/56	39/56	93/112	83.0%	4	7	260	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	20/35	50/70	71.4%	2	71	274	T	423
2020 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	1	340	147	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	1	6	104	T	192
2018 Senate	35/35	21/35	56/70	80.0%	4	4	42	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	18/36	50/72	69.4%	4	6	226	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	2	40	T	149
2016 President	51/56	26/56	77/112	68.8%	4	0	369	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	18/34	48/68	70.6%	2	3	164	T	362
2016 Governor	10/12	6/12	16/24	66.7%	2	0	25	T	279
2014 Senate	35/36	24/36	59/72	81.9%	6	3	42	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	19/36	49/72	68.1%	4	3	56	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	57	17	T	153
2012 President	51/56	35/56	86/112	76.8%	11	0	591	T	760
2012 Senate	29/33	19/33	48/66	72.7%	8	0	144	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	5	0	51	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	45/52	22/52	67/104	64.4%	14	-	16	T	231
2011 Governor	3/4	1/4	4/8	50.0%	3	40	79	T	106
2010 Senate	32/37	23/37	55/74	74.3%	13	0	133	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	24/37	58/74	78.4%	12	0	74	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	4	8	1	T	103
2008 President	51/56	26/56	77/112	68.8%	7	8	625	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	13/33	45/66	68.2%	4	8	257	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	5/11	15/22	68.2%	1	193	183	T	264
Aggregate Predictions	693/759	425/759	1118/1518	73.6%

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