Comments History
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hideVersion: 13
Here are my predictions for the 2009 governor elections, based on the 3 most recent polls.
NEW JERSEY (incumbent running)
SurveyUSA (10/19-21): Christie 41%, Corzine 39% (R+2)
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) (10/21-22): Corzine 42%, Corzine 39% (0)*
Rasmussen (10/19): Christie 41%, Corzine 39% (R+2)
Prediction: Christie will win by 1.33% (GOP GAIN)
VIRGINIA (open seat)
Public Policy Polling (10/16-19): McDonnell 52%, Deeds 40% (R+12)
Mason-Dixon (10/18-19): McDonnell 49%, Deeds 41% (R+8)
SurveyUSA (10/17-19): McDonnell 59%, Deeds 40% (R+19)
Prediction: McDonnell will win by 13% (GOP GAIN)
*In the case of partisan polls, I take the difference between the candidates and subtract 3 points from the party that the poll is from.
HISTORY
10/18: NJ R+2; VA R+7.33
10/11: NJ R+1.33; VA R+10
10/4: NJ R+3.67; VA R+10.33
9/27: NJ R+5.33; VA R+6
9/20: NJ R+6.33; VA R+4.67
9/13: NJ R+6.33; VA R+10.67
8/30: NJ R+4.67; VA R+8
8/16: NJ R+8.33; VA R+8
8/2: NJ R+11.33; VA R+4.33
7/19: NJ R+7; VA R+4.33
7/5: NJ R+10.33; VA D+2
6/24: NJ R+10; VA D+2
The final predictions will come on Monday, November 2.
Version: 12
Here are my predictions for the 2009 governor elections, based on the 3 most recent polls.
NEW JERSEY (incumbent running)
New York Times (10/9-14): Christie 40%, Corzine 39% (R+1)
Survey USA (10/12-14): Christie 40%, Corzine 39% (R+1)
Rasmussen (10/14): Christie 45%, Corzine 41% (R+4)
Prediction: Christie will win by 2% (GOP GAIN)
VIRGINIA (open seat)
Rasmussen (10/12): McDonnell 49%, Deeds 42% (R+7)
Mason-Dixon (10/6-8): McDonnell 50%, Deeds 43% (R+7)
Washington Post (10/4-7): McDonnell 48%, Deeds 40% (R+8)
Prediction: McDonnell will win by 7.33% (GOP GAIN)
HISTORY
10/11: NJ R+1.33; VA R+10
10/4: NJ R+3.67; VA R+10.33
9/27: NJ R+5.33; VA R+6
9/20: NJ R+6.33; VA R+4.67
9/13: NJ R+6.33; VA R+10.67
8/30: NJ R+4.67; VA R+8
8/16: NJ R+8.33; VA R+8
8/2: NJ R+11.33; VA R+4.33
7/19: NJ R+7; VA R+4.33
7/5: NJ R+10.33; VA D+2
6/24: NJ R+10; VA D+2
The next predictions will come on Sunday, October 25.
Version: 11
Here are my predictions for the 2009 governor elections, based on the 3 most recent polls.
NEW JERSEY (incumbent running)
Neighborhood Research (R) (10/6-8): Christie 36%, Corzine 36% (D+3)*
Survey USA (10/5-7): Christie 36%, Corzine 35% (R+1)
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) (10/6-7): Christie 43%, Corzine 40% (R+6)*
Prediction: Christie will win by 1.33% (GOP GAIN)
VIRGINIA (open seat)
Washington Post (10/4-7): McDonnell 53%, Deeds 44% (R+9)
SurveyUSA (10/2-4): McDonnell 54%, Deeds 43% (R+11)
Rasmussen (9/29): McDonnell 49%, Deeds 39% (R+10)
Prediction: McDonnell will win by 10% (GOP GAIN)
*In the case of partisan polls, I take the difference between the candidates and subtract 3 points from the party that the poll is from.
HISTORY
10/4: NJ R+3.67; VA R+10.33
9/27: NJ R+5.33; VA R+6
9/20: NJ R+6.33; VA R+4.67
9/13: NJ R+6.33; VA R+10.67
8/30: NJ R+4.67; VA R+8
8/16: NJ R+8.33; VA R+8
8/2: NJ R+11.33; VA R+4.33
7/19: NJ R+7; VA R+4.33
7/5: NJ R+10.33; VA D+2
6/24: NJ R+10; VA D+2
The next predictions will come on Sunday, October 18.
Version: 10
Here are my predictions for the 2009 governor elections, based on the 3 most recent polls.
NEW JERSEY (incumbent running)
Monmouth U. (9/24-29): Christie 43%, Corzine 40% (R+3)
Quinnipiac (9/23-28): Christie 43%, Corzine 39% (R+4)
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) (9/22-23): Christie 40%, Corzine 39% (R+6)*
Prediction: Christie will win by 1.33% (GOP GAIN)
VIRGINIA (open seat)
Rasmussen (9/29): McDonnell 51%, Deeds 42% (R+9)
SurveyUSA (9/25-28): McDonnell 55%, Deeds 41% (R+14)
Public Policy Polling (D) (9/25-28): McDonnell 48%, Deeds 43% (R+8)*
Prediction: McDonnell will win by 10.33% (GOP GAIN)
*In the case of partisan polls, I take the difference between the candidates and subtract 3 points from the party that the poll is from.
HISTORY
9/27: NJ R+5.33; VA R+6
9/20: NJ R+6.33; VA R+4.67
9/13: NJ R+6.33; VA R+10.67
8/30: NJ R+4.67; VA R+8
8/16: NJ R+8.33; VA R+8
8/2: NJ R+11.33; VA R+4.33
7/19: NJ R+7; VA R+4.33
7/5: NJ R+10.33; VA D+2
6/24: NJ R+10; VA D+2
The next predictions will come on Sunday, October 11.
Version: 9
Here are my predictions for the 2009 governor elections, based on the 3 most recent polls.
NEW JERSEY (incumbent running)
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) (9/22-23): Christie 40%, Corzine 39% (R+4)*
Rasmussen (9/21): Christie 48%, Corzine 41% (R+7)
Strategic Vision (R) (9/18-20): Christie 46%, Corzine 38% (R+5)*
Prediction: Christie will win by 5.33% (GOP GAIN)
VIRGINIA (open seat)
Majority Opinion Research (9/23): McDonnell 48%, Deeds 44% (R+4)
Washington Post (9/14-17): McDonnell 47%, Deeds 40% (R+7)
Research 2000 (9/14-16): McDonnell 50%, Deeds 43% (R+7)
Prediction: McDonnell will win by 6.00% (GOP GAIN)
*In the case of partisan polls, I take the difference between the candidates and subtract 3 points from the party that the poll is from.
HISTORY
9/20: NJ R+6.33; VA R+4.67
9/13: NJ R+6.33; VA R+10.67
8/30: NJ R+4.67; VA R+8
8/16: NJ R+8.33; VA R+8
8/2: NJ R+11.33; VA R+4.33
7/19: NJ R+7; VA R+4.33
7/5: NJ R+10.33; VA D+2
6/24: NJ R+10; VA D+2
The next predictions will come on Sunday, October 4.
Version: 8
Here are my predictions for the 2009 governor elections, based on the 3 most recent polls.
NEW JERSEY (incumbent running)
Neighborhood Research (R) (9/14-17): Christie 40%, Corzine 33% (R+4)*
Public Policy Polling (9/11-14): Christie 37%, Corzine 33% (R+7)*
Monmouth University (9/8-10): Christie 47%, Corzine 39% (R+8)
Prediction: Christie will win by 6.33% (GOP GAIN)
VIRGINIA (open seat)
Research 2000 (9/14-16): McDonnell 50%, Deeds 43% (R+7)
Rasmussen (9/16): McDonnell 48%, Deeds 46% (R+2)
Clarus Research Group (9/10-14): McDonnell 42%, Deeds 37% (R+5)
Prediction: McDonnell will win by 4.67% (GOP GAIN)
*In the case of partisan polls, I take the difference between the candidates and subtract 3 points from the party that the poll is from.
HISTORY
9/13: NJ R+6.33; VA R+10.67
8/30: NJ R+4.67; VA R+8
8/16: NJ R+8.33; VA R+8
8/2: NJ R+11.33; VA R+4.33
7/19: NJ R+7; VA R+4.33
7/5: NJ R+10.33; VA D+2
6/24: NJ R+10; VA D+2
The next predictions will come on Sunday, September 27.
Version: 7
Here are my predictions for the 2009 governor elections, based on the 3 most recent polls.
NEW JERSEY (incumbent running)
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) (9/1-3): Christie 41%, Corzine 38% (R+6)*
Rasmussen (9/1): Christie 46%, Corzine 38% (R+8)
Farleigh Dickinson U. (8/24-30): Christie 47%, Corzine 42% (R+5)
Prediction: Christie will win by 6.33% (GOP GAIN)
VIRGINIA (open seat)
SurveyUSA (9/1-3): McDonnell 54%, Deeds 42% (R+12)
Rasmussen (9/1): McDonnell 49%, Deeds 39% (R+10)
Public Policy (D) (8/28-31): McDonnell 49%, Deeds 42% (R+10)*
Prediction: McDonnell will win by 10.67% (GOP GAIN)
*In the case of partisan polls, I take the difference between the candidates and subtract 3 points from the party that the poll is from.
HISTORY
8/30: NJ R+4.67; VA R+8
8/16: NJ R+8.33; VA R+8
8/2: NJ R+11.33; VA R+4.33
7/19: NJ R+7; VA R+4.33
7/5: NJ R+10.33; VA D+2
6/24: NJ R+10; VA D+2
The next predictions will come on Sunday, September 20.
Version: 6
Here are my predictions for the 2009 governor elections, based on the 3 most recent polls.
NEW JERSEY (incumbent running)
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) (8/25-26): Christie 46%, Corzine 43% (R+6)*
Rasmussen (8/25): Christie 50%, Corzine 42% (R+8)
Neighborhood Research (R) (8/12-21): Christie 39%, Corzine 36% (0)*
Prediction: Christie will win by 4.67% (GOP GAIN)
VIRGINIA (open seat)
Washington Post (8/11-14): McDonnell 47%, Deeds 40% (R+7)
Rasmussen (8/10): McDonnell 47%, Deeds 38% (R+9)
Research 2000 (8/3-5): McDonnell 51%, Deeds 43% (R+8)
Prediction: McDonnell will win by 8% (GOP GAIN)
*In the case of partisan polls, I take the difference between the candidates and subtract 3 points from the party that the poll is from.
HISTORY
8/16: NJ R+8.33; VA R+8
8/2: NJ R+11.33; VA R+4.33
7/19: NJ R+7; VA R+4.33
7/5: NJ R+10.33; VA D+2
6/24: NJ R+10; VA D+2
I will update my predictions every other Sunday until Labor Day, when I will switch to updating every Sunday. The next predictions will come on Sunday, September 14, and after that date, updates will occur weekly.
Version: 5
Here are my predictions for the 2009 governor elections, based on the 3 most recent polls.
NEW JERSEY (incumbent running)
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) (8/11-12): Christie 40%, Corzine 35% (R+8)*
Quinnipiac (8/5-9): Christie 51%, Corzine 42% (R+9)
Research 2000 (8/3-5): Christie 48%, Corzine 40% (R+8)
Prediction: Christie will win by 8.33% (GOP GAIN)
VIRGINIA (open seat)
Washington Post (8/11-14): McDonnell 47%, Deeds 40% (R+7)
Rasmussen (8/10): McDonnell 47%, Deeds 38% (R+9)
Research 2000 (8/3-5): McDonnell 51%, Deeds 43% (R+8)
Prediction: McDonnell will win by 8% (GOP GAIN)
*In the case of partisan polls, I take the difference between the candidates and subtract 3 points from the party that the poll is from.
HISTORY
8/2: NJ R+11.33; VA R+4.33
7/19: NJ R+7; VA R+4.33
7/5: NJ R+10.33; VA D+2
6/24: NJ R+10; VA D+2
I will update my predictions every other Sunday until Labor Day, when I will switch to updating every Sunday. The next predictions will come on Sunday, August 30.
Version: 4
Here are my predictions for the 2009 governor elections, based on the 3 most recent polls.
NEW JERSEY (incumbent running)
Public Policy Polling (7/24-27): Christie 50%, Corzine 36% (R+14)
Strategic Vision (R) (7/17-19): Christie 53%, Corzine 38% (R+12)*
Monmouth U. (7/9-14): Christie 45%, Corzine 37% (R+8)
Prediction: Christie will win by 11.33% (GOP GAIN)
VIRGINIA (open seat)
Rasmussen (7/14): McDonnell 44%, Deeds 41% (R+3)
Public Policy Polling (D) (6/30-7/2): McDonnell 49%, Deeds 43% (R+9)*
Research 2000 (6/15-17): McDonnell 45, Deeds 44% (R+1)
Prediction: McDonnell will win by 4.33% (GOP GAIN)
*In the case of partisan polls, I take the difference between the candidates and subtract 3 points from the party that the poll is from.
HISTORY
7/19: NJ R+7; VA R+4.33%
7/5: NJ R+10.33; VA D+2
6/24: NJ R+10; VA D+2
I will update my predictions every other Sunday until Labor Day, when I will switch to updating every Sunday. The next predictions will come on Sunday, August 16.
Version: 3
Here are my predictions for the 2009 governor elections, based on the 3 most recent polls.
NEW JERSEY (incumbent running)
Monmouth U. (7/9-14): Christie 45%, Corzine 37% (R+8)
Quinnipiac (7/8-12): Christie 43%, Corzine 37% (R+6)
Rasmussen (7/7): Christie 46%, Corzine 39% (R+7)
Prediction: Christie will win by 7% (GOP GAIN)
VIRGINIA (open seat)
Rasmussen (7/14): McDonnell 44%, Deeds 41% (R+3)
Public Policy Polling (D) (6/30-7/2): McDonnell 49%, Deeds 43% (R+9)*
Research 2000 (6/15-17): McDonnell 45, Deeds 44% (R+1)
Prediction: McDonnell will win by 4.33% (GOP GAIN)
*In the case of partisan polls, I take the difference between the candidates and subtract 3 points from the party that the poll is from.
HISTORY
7/5: NJ R+10.33; VA D+2
6/24: NJ R+10; VA D+2
I will now update my predictions every other Sunday until Labor Day, when I will switch to updating every Sunday. The next predictions will come on Sunday, August 2.
Version: 2
Here is my first set of predictions for the 2009 governor elections, based on the 3 most recent polls.
NEW JERSEY (incumbent running)
Public Policy (D) (6/27-29): Christie 51%, Corzine 41% (R+13)*
Strategic Vision (R) (6/19-21): Christie 51%, Corzine 39% (R+9)*
Quinnipiac (6/3-8): Christie 46%, Corzine 37% (R+9)
Prediction: Christie will win by 10.33% (GOP GAIN)
VIRGINIA (open seat)
Research 2000 (6/15-17): McDonnell 45%, Deeds 44% (R+1)
Anzalone Liszt Research (D) (6/10-14): Deeds 42%, McDonnell 38% (D+1)*
Rasmussen (6/10): Deeds 47%, McDonnell 41% (D+6)
Prediction: Deeds will win by 2% (DEM HOLD)
*In the case of partisan polls, I take the difference between the candidates and subtract 3 points from the party that the poll is from.
HISTORY
6/24: NJ R+10; VA D+2
I will now update my predictions every other Sunday until Labor Day, when I will switch to updating every Sunday. The next predictions will come on Sunday, July 19.
Version: 1
Here is my first set of predictions for the 2009 governor elections, based on the 3 most recent polls.
NEW JERSEY (incumbent running)
Quinnipiac (6/3-8): Christie 50%, Corzine 40% (R+10)
Rasmussen (6/3): Christie 51%, Corzine 38% (R+13)
Research 2000 (5/25-27): Christie 46%, Corzine 39% (R+7)
Prediction: Christie will win by 10% (GOP GAIN)
VIRGINIA (open seat)
Research 2000 (6/15-17): McDonnell 45%, Deeds 44% (R+1)
Anzalone Liszt Research (D) (6/10-14): Deeds 42%, McDonnell 38% (D+1)*
Rasmussen (6/10): Deeds 47%, McDonnell 41% (D+6)
Prediction: Deeds will win by 2% (DEM HOLD)
*In the case of partisan polls, I take the difference between the candidates and subtract 3 points from the party that the poll is from.
Look for updates every 2 weeks. That means the next predictions will come on Wednesday, July 8.
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